耶鲁大学 斯蒂芬·罗奇 中国贸易战的秘密

耶鲁大学 斯蒂芬·罗奇 中国贸易战的秘密

耶鲁大学经济学家斯蒂芬·罗奇揭露了有关中国贸易战的惊人秘密

Yale Economist Stephen Roach Reveals Shocking SECRET About China Trade War

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwlrS0p9jL8&t=10s

2025年2月16日

斯蒂芬·罗奇参加节目，讨论中美关系、贸易战、台湾问题以及他改善这两个超级大国关系的解决方案。 在此加入斯蒂芬·罗奇的新闻通讯：

https://stephenroach.substack.com/
0:00 - 斯蒂芬·罗奇简介
1:40 - 中美关系为何变得如此糟糕？
2:43 - 美国为何需要与中国重新接触
4:34 - 中美贸易战
6:13 - 美国人为何不理解关税
7:40 - 针对中国的关税为何会伤害美国人
8:41 - 加拿大和墨西哥为何成为关税目标？
12:34 - 唐纳德·特朗普是中国鹰派吗？
14:32 - 阻止中国为何彻底失败
18:07 - 台湾的未来是什么？
20:40 - 美中关系的未来会怎样？
21:45 - 为什么美国的对华战略存在缺陷
22:17 - 如何永久修复美中关系！
25:26 - 世界应该了解中国什么？
27:15 - 最后的想法

斯蒂芬·罗奇简介
总统是中国鹰派，他身边都是志同道合的人，你知道他可能想和习近平达成协议，因为他喜欢说他已经压制了强大的外国敌对势力，但你知道，我们没有理由乐观，如果有什么的话，我认为我们已经给中国注入了更大的动力，让中国自主开发最先进的技术，并且以一种不像我们希望的那样依赖美国技术的方式做到这一点，这是史蒂文·罗奇教授，他是世界上最受尊敬的经济学家之一，也是美国和中国经济的内幕人士，罗奇教授的业绩是史无前例的，他在摩根士丹利工作了 30 年，担任该公司的首席经济学家，后来成为摩根士丹利亚洲主席，教授roach 现在是贵大学的高级研究员，并于 2022 年撰写了一本名为《意外冲突美国中国与虚假叙事的冲突》的书。在今天的节目中，我与 roach 教授坐下来讨论笼罩中美关系的虚假叙事。我们讨论了唐纳德特朗普的回归以及他的新贸易战对美国和中国经济意味着什么。roach 教授分享了中国如何为未来做准备的见解，但最重要的是，我们讨论了他的创新常识解决方案，它可以立即改善美中关系，如果你想真正了解 2025 年美国和中国之间会发生什么，这是为你准备的一集，让我们开始吧，各位，我很荣幸欢迎来自贵大学的 Steven Roos 教授来到演播室

中美关系为何变得如此糟糕？

因为我相信中美关系是世界上最重要的地缘政治关系，我们现在在2025年2月在哪里，我们是如何走到今天这一步的，中美之间的紧张关系，目前，两国关系处于历史最低点，很大程度上是贸易战的结果，这场贸易战是由特朗普总统在他的第一届政府中发起的，在拜登政府执政期间仍在继续，而且看起来，在特朗普2.0初期，贸易战又一次升级，以国家安全担忧为幌子，你甚至可以说，美国的共和党和民主党都对从抖音和华为到深度寻求中国电动汽车码头装卸起重机等任何事情都反应非常强烈，无论中国有什么动向，我们都认为这是一种威胁，是的，我的意思是，我会。

为什么美国需要与中国重新接触

我想进一步阐述一下，因为你在时事通讯中写了很多关于恐犬症的文章，你经常谈论这种对中国的非理性恐惧，幸运的是，这是美国政治家们唯一能做到的事情，民主党和共和党几乎在所有方面都对中国抱有这种非理性的恐惧，就像你说的，所有这些不同的行业，基本上任何来自中国的技术都被视为国家安全威胁，有什么办法可以解决这个问题，或者我们该如何将常识带回华盛顿，华盛顿的常识有点矛盾，对吧，这些天，这将是一场漫长的斗争，你知道我自己的感觉是，嗯，你开始谈论世界上最重要的关系，我有这个共识，我们需要集中精力关于重新接触，如果我们确实相信这是世界上最重要的关系，而重新接触被认为是一个四个字母的词，鉴于我们刚才描述的心态，但你知道我们有几个选择，那就是继续升级冲突或找出解决冲突的方法，从我们的角度按照我们的条件解决冲突，是的，但同时要尊重中国体系的需求和特点，所以我们必须重建信任，真正对我们开展跨境贸易的方式有更广阔的视野，然后努力建立一个安全和可靠的新架构，以便我们两国之间进行接触，非常好，我们稍后会讨论这个问题，嗯，你有一个关于秘书的绝妙想法，你知道这可能有助于美中关系我们稍后再讨论这个问题，但我想谈谈。

中美贸易战

关于这场新的贸易战，你知道我们正处于一场全新的贸易战的边缘，嗯，我的意思是，我们已经看到唐纳德特朗普甚至威胁要对我们最亲密的两个盟友加拿大墨西哥征收 25% 的关税，这些关税至少暂时停止了，嗯，但我们确实看到针对中国的新关税是 10% 的关税，嗯，这很有趣，与唐纳德特朗普在竞选期间警告和预测的 60% 关税相比，这是一个非常大的削减，嗯，你如何看待这场与中国的新贸易战，显然中国也通过对来自美国的许多商品征收关税进行报复，但当我们谈论经济和这场新的贸易战时，我们处于什么位置，我们在未来期待什么，请记住赛勒斯，嗯，这是在现有的 19% 的基础上增加 10%特朗普 2018 年和 2019 年的关税至今仍在实施，与之前的关税不同，我认为这些关税涵盖了中国向我们发送的大约三分之二的商品，这些新的关税涵盖了所有进口商品，因此，现在对从中国进口的商品征收的实际关税接近 30%，这对他们的经济来说是一个沉重的负担，而他们的经济显然正在苦苦挣扎，但这肯定是美国纳税人的负担，他们现在正受到来自中国的产品价格进一步上涨的打击，而对于一位承诺降低价格以解决美国人严重钱包问题的总统来说，情况恰恰相反，是的，

为什么美国人不理解关税，

我绝对想扩大关税，因为我认为人们对关税存在误解关税，你知道，例如，我看到了这条推文，关于关税的四个事实，关税不会导致通货膨胀，关税会导致美国消费者价格下降，关税为美国创造就业机会，关税会导致所得税降低，让我们从经济学家的角度看，你能分析一下这些评论，给我们多一点常识，让我们了解关税到底起什么作用吗，你确定这是来自金融家还是来自白宫，我的意思是，这听起来很像是把我们总统对关税的复杂观点结合起来，他完全不明白关税是什么，从他的角度来看，关税是对外国征收的税，他想把这种税拿回来，用来资助他的 Maga 议程，但他没有意识到的是，关税是在港口由负责进口的美国公司支付的，所以这是这会增加我们的成本，而降低价格可以创造就业机会，开辟新的机遇，这一点政客可能会争辩，但据我所知，没有一位可信的经济学家相信这一点，是的，这很有道理，谢谢你把它分解并简化，我只是想把它说出来，这样我们的观众才能真正理解这一点，并告诉我们这些新关税。

为什么对华关税会伤害美国人

因为我确实认为还有另一项规定，例如，你知道，长期以来，价格低于 800 美元的商品，这肯定会影响中国公司，如 shien um 和 Teemu，但基本上，这些付款，你知道，如果它们低于 800 美元，它们就不会受到恐怖主义的影响，我相信现在也已经包括在内了，对吗？所以基本上就像你之前说的，现在所有来自中国的东西都要缴纳这种新税，我认为这是真的，我听到了同样的事情，我还没有检查昨天在国家登记册上公布的确切规定，但如果有明显的倾向来捕捉这一点，我一点也不会感到惊讶，但同样，这将由那些想在 Tei 或 alib 上购买低成本中国商品的个人支付，他们现在将受到这些打击成本增加，嗯，你知道，它的覆盖范围比现行关税要全面得多，让我们来谈谈加拿大和

为何加拿大和墨西哥成为征收关税的对象？

墨西哥，我认为这对美国很重要，因为这很有趣，你可以提出这样的论点，中国是美国的潜在对手或竞争对手，如果你要对中国征收关税，一些美国人当然可以理解，但真正针对加拿大和墨西哥的理由是什么，白宫显然说这是因为芬太尼，因为这个问题，但稍微扩展一下，帮助我们更多地了解这实际上意味着什么，如果对我们的加拿大邻国和墨西哥邻国征收 25% 的关税，这对他们的经济和我们自己的经济会有什么影响，首先，作为这个重要问题的前言，如果我们与墨西哥存在芬太尼问题，或者与墨西哥存在移民问题，顺便说一句，数字表明，尽管总统声称，加拿大没有这些问题，我的意思是，美国芬太尼贩运量为零，大约 4/10 4/10来自加拿大，你知道，过去 10 年，只有不到 2% 的非法移民来自加拿大，所以我们在那里没有问题，我们与墨西哥有问题，让我们在面对面谈判的基础上解决这些问题，但不要使用关税来试图实现这一目标，处理跨境贸易流动的关税直指特朗普总统在 2020 年所说的现代历史上最伟大的贸易协议的核心，即美国墨西哥加拿大协议，即 USMCA，这三个北美国家已经深度整合了供应链连接，其中商品复杂的商品汽车就是典型的例子，在成品交付给经销商之前，商品在边境来回翻转八九次，这是一个非常非常高效的先进现代综合三边生产系统，对我们的盟友征税，他们是该生产系统的关键齿轮，这基本上意味着要拆散生产平台是由现代历史上最伟大的贸易协议建立的，你知道加拿大显然是一个自豪的主权国家，不像唐纳德·特朗普所说的，一个通过成为我们珍视的第 51 个州而受益匪浅的国家，他们感到自豪，他们感到愤怒，他们感到愤怒，你知道总统昨天在退缩，在 tffs 上退缩，声称他得到了一些边境保护，实际上已经实施了，无论如何，你知道 30 天的宽限期，你知道，如果他想回去，再次试图挤压我们最伟大的盟友之一，我们最伟大的经济合作者之一，你知道荒谬的关税计划，如果他这样做，你知道加拿大人会以黑桃报复，这将是一场逐底竞争，是的，我认为根本没有赢家，我的意思是它会我认为美国消费者和加拿大消费者肯定会成为最大的输家，我的意思是，自伊拉克战争以来，我们第一次看到加拿大人在冰球比赛中对国歌发出嘘声，你知道，这绝对不是你想要的对待你的方式，就像你说的，你最亲密的盟友和你最亲密的人很生气，你知道他们很生气，你知道，我们竟然胆敢攻击一个国家，我们与这个国家有着世界上最长的边界，而且我们在各个方面都保持着一种令人惊叹的合作合作关系，而且已经有很长一段时间了，是的，绝对的，让我们把话题转回来

唐纳德·特朗普是中国鹰派吗？

特别是关于美中关系，我想听听你对唐纳德特朗普2.0的看法，嗯，你知道我想听听你对这种关系未来的看法，因为我相信唐纳德特朗普的政府中有很多非常鹰派的人，上周有传言说，一位绅士凯尔·巴斯（Kyle Bass）会加入特朗普政府，他公开表示，中国是美国的死敌，我认为他是一个极端主义者，我不认为他会为总统和他的政府提供可靠的建议，你知道你是否担心唐纳德特朗普与鹰派人士交往并将他们带入他的政府，这将如何影响美中关系的未来，你知道他喜欢中国鹰派，我的意思是记住他有前罪犯彼得纳瓦罗再次在白宫为他工作，他的最后一本关于中国的书名为《死于中国》，凯尔·巴斯是我唯一的兄弟，我认为彼得·纳瓦罗对中国持有极端观点，你知道，马可·卢比奥国务卿对中国非常鹰派，国家安全顾问沃尔兹也是一位公开的对华鹰派，但你知道，最重要的是，总统是一个对华鹰派，他身边都是志同道合的人，你知道他可能想和习近平达成协议，因为他喜欢说他已经中和了强大的外国敌对势力，但你知道，没有理由对此抱有乐观态度，中国显然非常咄咄逼人，在某些情况下甚至令人担忧，他们有自己的野心，你知道，我们有一项真正专注于遏制呃，如果不打倒中国呃，正如我们所知，所以我们很难逆转
阻止中国是如何完全失败的

当然，你嗯，让我们谈谈你对最新技术突破的看法，我的意思是显然深度搜索 R1 它绝对让华尔街感到震惊，损失了一万亿美元呃你知道第二天因为你知道这个惊人的技术突破呃那是开源的，我的意思是它真的是给世界的礼物，这是一个伟大的技术，只需花费开放人工智能能够做到这一点的一小部分成本，你认为这是美国的遏制战略的一个例子呃真的无法奏效我的意思是这真的是真的真的不可能遏制中国，因为他们只是想找到一种创新的方法，我上周写了一篇文章，得到了很多评论，嗯认为拜登政府的这种旨在阻止中国技术发展的“小院子高墙”的做法，正如人们所描述的那样，是彻底的失败。我举了两个例子来证明，凤凰城的非凡复兴，比如华为，然后是深度开发大型语言机器学习模型的出现，它们可以提供与我们在美国最先进的 IIA 机器相当的输出，正如你所说，成本只有 5% 到 10%，所以你知道我们在“小院子高墙”方面取得了什么成就，就技术遏制而言，如果说有什么不同的话，我认为是中国获得了更大的激励，让中国自主开发最先进的技术，并且以一种不像我们希望的那样依赖美国技术的方式进行开发，我的意思是，我再次回到华为，有很多现在的焦点是深度搜索，但华为你知道他们有一款非常有竞争力的智能手机，兼容 5G，兼容人工智能，不再依赖安卓操作系统，他们依靠自己内部开发的操作系统，而且它是一种低成本、非常强大的高价替代品，可以替代苹果、三星和深度搜索。你知道美国人工智能社区再次抱怨，而这正是美国一直擅长的，我们如何应对中国创新，我们多年来一直在抱怨，他们抱怨深度搜索借鉴了美国建立的大型语言模型的输出，顺便说一句，这些指控尚未得到证实，但你知道，像开放人工智能这样的公司抱怨像深度搜索这样的真正开放的系统正在利用他们的输出，这本身就是一种极大的虚伪。是的，这很了不起，我的意思是，嗯，我起诉了那个开放人工智能，如果他们想保护他们的专有搜索技术，就把公司名称改为封闭人工智能，是的，教授，这是一个很好的观点，我认为我们已经肯定看到的是，需要是发明之母，我们肯定看到中国能够用更少的资源做更多的事情，呃，我的意思是，我不会打赌中国不会发展科技，我的意思是，当你去那里旅行时，你肯定可以看到他们生活的先进社会，肯定处于最伟大技术的尖端，这是回到中国总是令人兴奋
台湾的未来是什么？

但我想谈一谈我认为美中关系的基石是台湾，当然是这种关系中非常非常重要的一部分，我确实看到了《纽约时报》的一篇文章，非常了不起，台湾总统说台湾和中国需要和平，这给国际带来了多重变化，他希望寻求对话而不是对抗，我认为这是非常积极的发展，你知道，当然，关于这一点，请告诉我你对台湾的看法，以及这件事在未来中美关系中将如何发展，你知道，这对中国共产党领导人来说显然非常重要，去年年底的一次讲话中，习近平阐述了他所谓的四条红线，这是他最关心的不可忽视的问题，首要任务是台湾，这当然意味着，任何威胁台湾的人，台湾独立正在越过最大的红线。最近有很多报道称，北京在军事上取得了新的突破，正在建造大型防御堡垒，为可能发生的战争做准备。我不太相信这些报道被认为与未来几年的战争一致，我们喜欢认为美国的情况就是如此。但台湾问题肯定是一个需要以某种方式解决的问题，希望在未来5到10年内和平解决。两岸经济一体化取得了很大进展。我认为需要一种更好的方法来管理不仅是中国和台湾之间的地缘战略紧张局势，而且中国和美国之间的地缘战略紧张局势。我们的政客们继续支持台湾独立。因此，像南希·佩洛西几年前夏天所做的那样，通过进行半官方访问，确实对两国关系的稳定造成了重大挫折，是的，绝对的，我认为，呃，台台问题当然也是美中关系的基石，嗯，但是，还有哪些其他关键变量将决定美中关系的未来，我的意思是，我们有贸易战，我们有台湾问题，您还关注什么其他问题

如果美中关系的未来会怎样？

两国关系的未来，从贸易和技术到工业政策，再到对中国和美国国有企业的补贴，都涉及到双方都至关重要的全球性问题，例如全球健康、气候变化、网络安全，当然还有人权，我认为我们需要建立一个新的双边秘书处，让两国全天候、持续地以非常专业的技术官僚水平处理这些和许多其他问题，这样当出现我们毫无准备的情况时，无论是间谍气球还是台湾海峡的海军事故，我们都有专家和官方支持来解决问题，并以目前的方式就这些棘手问题达成协议的

为什么美国对华战略存在缺陷

接触赛勒斯是我们已经将其外包给政治驱动的领导人，我们过分强调领导人对外交的态度，我认为这很重要，但你知道我们需要一个制度上的补充来支持领导人对外交的态度，以保持这种关系不断向前发展，依靠专业知识而不是政治领导人的个人想法，你能详细说明一下吗？

如何永远修复美中关系！

秘书处的想法，我希望我真的希望人们理解这一点，你知道，几周前，我有幸在旧金山听到你的演讲，我们都在那里参加未来中美关系会议，你的开幕式主旨演讲非常精彩，我认为你演讲中一个非常关键的点是，谈到这个秘书处，这将是一个个人，是一个团队，是由美国任命的，你如何设想，真正致力于促进这种中美关系，这将是一个双边秘书，这将是历史上两个大国之间第一个秘书处组织，它将由美国和中国专业科学家、贸易律师、经济学家等同等数量的人员组成，如果你想要的话，嗯，健康法律问题专家，以及我刚才提到的所有其他问题，它将设在一个中立的地点，可能是瑞士，可能是新加坡，可能是这与现有的秘书处有很大不同，这些秘书处是我们许多跨国或多边组织的核心，例如联合国、东非大都会组织世界贸易组织、世界卫生组织，这些组织主要是为了行政上的便利而设立的，它将是一个专注于协作解决棘手政策的组织，涵盖从经济和贸易到全球卫生网络安全和气候变化等诸多问题，它们将负责制定协作白皮书，旨在就这些问题提供政策或新协议，这些政策或协议将被纳入两国政府的立法程序，并通过秘书处的运作下进行的谈判解决，当争端发生时，正如它们在任何复杂的多边或双边协议中不可避免地会发生的那样，将有一个争端筛选功能和争端解决功能，以避免冲突，所以这是一种不同于我们现在的参与方式，我认为我们需要一种新的参与方式，因为目前的再次强调，在领导人看来，外交手段并没有奏效，看看我们现在所处的冲突，所以我们需要一个新的工具，一个新的腿，来建立一种我认为更富有成效的、更少对抗的中美关系，这是一个非常棒的见解，感谢您打破了秘书处的想法，您显然不只是一个人，而是一个由我们和中国组成的整个团队，中立的位置，我喜欢从与我们目前正在做的事情不同的事情转变的想法，并且绝对保持开放的沟通渠道 247，这些都是一些令人惊叹的收获，教授，我非常喜欢我们今天的谈话，我还有最后一个问题想问我的所有客人，

世界应该了解中国什么？

你知道你想让世界知道的关于中国的一件事是什么吗？大多数人误解了什么？或者如果你有一件事可以告诉所有人，那会是什么？他们和我们其他人一样，有非常人性化的需求，我们倾向于诋毁或把中国人当作外来人口，你知道，他们来自一个与我们截然不同的地方，不久前，他们还是一个贫穷的国家，1980 年，80% 的人口是农村人口，他们从那时起已经取得了长足的进步，但他们在提高生活水平以达到更发达社会的水平方面还有很长的路要走，他们渴望经济发展和繁荣，就像我们一样，他们称之为中国梦，就像我们称之为美国梦一样，中国梦的实现并不一定意味着那是一种威胁其他国家的梦想，包括我们自己的美国梦，所以我认为我们需要回过头来加深对中国人民的需求和愿望的理解，认识到他们有一个不同的系统来组织他们的政府，但这并不一定改变该系统背后的真正需求，这是一个很棒的答案，我认为很多时候我们都会忘记，你知道在中国，有家庭、丈夫和妻子，还有普通人，他们的生活和我们的生活没有太大的不同，我们都在努力在生活中进步，努力让世界变得更美好，所以，罗奇教授，我非常感谢你今天抽出时间，你的见解很棒，在哪里可以

 

Yale Economist Stephen Roach Reveals Shocking SECRET About China Trade War

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwlrS0p9jL8&t=10s
2025年2月16日
Stephen Roach joins the show to discuss US China Relations, the Trade War, Taiwan, and his solution to improve the relationship between these two superpowers. Join Stephen Roach's Newsletter here: https://stephenroach.substack.com/

0:00 - Intro to Stephen Roach

1:40 - How Did US China Relationship Get This Bad?

2:43 - Why the US Needs Re-engagement with China

4:34 - The US China Trade War

6:13 - Why Americans Don't Understand Tariffs

7:40 - Why Tariffs Against China Hurt Americans

8:41 - Why is Canada and Mexico Targeted with Tariffs?

12:34 - Is Donald Trump a China Hawk?

14:32 - How Stopping China Completely Failed

18:07 - What is the Future of Taiwan?

20:40 - What if the Future of US China Relations?

21:45 - Why America's Strategy with China is Flawed
22:17 - How to Fix the US China Relationship Forever!
25:26 - What Should the World Know About China?
27:15 - Final Thoughts
 
the president is a China hawkk he surrounded himself with likeminded uh
individuals you know he might uh want to cut a deal with xiin ping because he
likes being able to say that he has um neutralized strong foreign adversarial
Powers but uh you know there's no reason to be optimistic if anything we have
instilled I think greater incentive on
China to um develop state of the art
technology indigenously and to do so in
a way that is not nearly as dependent on
us technology as we would like to
believe this is Professor Steven roach
he is one of the world's most respected
economists and an Insider into both the
US and Chinese economies Professor
roach's track record is unprecedented he
enjoyed a 30-year career with Morgan
Stanley serving as the company's Chief
Economist and later becoming the
chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia
Professor roach is now a senior fellow
at yo University and in 202 2 authored a
book entitled accidental conflict
America China and The Clash of false
narratives in today's show I sit down
with Professor roach to discuss the
exact false narratives clouding the US
China relationship we discussed the
return of Donald Trump and what his new
trade war will mean for both the US and
Chinese economies Professor roach shares
insights into how China is preparing for
the future but most importantly we
discuss his Innovative Common Sense
solution that could instantly improve us
China relations if you want to really
understand what will happen between the
US and China in 2025 this is the episode
for you let's begin everyone I'm very
honored to welcome into the studio
Professor Steven Roos from y University
because I believe that the US China
relationship is the most important
geopolitical relationship in the world
where are we right now in February 2025
and basically how have we gotten to this
point with this tension between the US
and China well the relationship is in an
all-time low at this point in time in
large part uh an outgrowth of trade war
that was started by President Trump in
his first Administration and um one that
continued under the Biden Administration
and uh looks like it is once again
ratcheting up in the early days of trump
2.0 um under the guise of National
Security fears uh you might even say
paranoia in the US Republicans and
Democrats alike react very very strongly
uh to anything pertaining to from Tik
Tock and Huawei to uh deep seek Chinese
electric vehicles dock loading cranes
You Name It Whatever China has its hand
on WE view as a threat yeah I mean I'd
like to expand upon that because you've
you've written a lot about um cynophobia
in your newsletter you talk a lot about
how this has these irrational fears of
China have really fortunately it's been
the one thing that has United
politicians in the United States both
Democrats and Republicans have this
irrational fear of China um in in almost
every way like you said all of these
different Industries basically any Tech
coming from China is deemed a national
security threat um is there any way to
get around that or do we move on from
that how do we bring Common Sense back
to Washington well common sense in
Washington is a bit of an oxymoron right
these days um that's a that's going to
be a long a long struggle you know my
own my own feeling is that um you
started this out Cyrus about talking
about the world's most important
relationship I have this um out of
consensus view that we need to focus on
re-engagement if indeed we do believe
this is the world's most important
relationship and re-engagement um is
considered to be a four-letter word
given the mindset uh that we just
described and yet you know we have we
have a couple of choices here and that
is continue to escalate the conflict or
figure out a way to resolve the conflict
and resolve the conflict from our point
of view on our terms yes but be
respectful of the uh the needs and
characteristics of the Chinese system at
the same time so we've got to rebuild
trust uh really have a more expansive
outlook for the way in which we conduct
crossb uh trade uh and then work hard on
building up a secure and uh Dependable
uh new architecture for engagement
between our Nations very good we're
going to talk about that a little later
um you have an amazing idea about a
secretar that could you know potentially
help this us China relationship we'll
get into that later but I want to talk
about this new trade War you know we're
on the cusp of a brand new trade War um
I mean we've seen threats from Donald
Trump to even put 25% tariffs on two of
our closest allies obviously Canada
Mexico those have been stopped
temporarily at least um but we did see
new tariffs go against China it was a
10% tariff uh which is interesting which
was a very big reduction from the 60%
tariffs that Donald Trump had warned and
forecasted you know during his campaign
uh what do you make of this new trade
war with China obviously China's also
retaliated by putting tariffs on number
of goods from the United States but
where we at and what are we looking for
in the future when we're talking about
economics and this new trade War well
keep in mind Cyrus that that um this is
10% on top of a pre-existing 19%
courtesy of uh the Trump tariffs of 2018
and 19 that are still in place today and
unlike those earlier tariffs which
covered see I think about 2third of the
goods China uh sends to us these new
this new 10% covers 100% everything that
comes in so the the effective tariff is
now close to 30% on Goods coming in from
uh China that's a big burden on their
economy which is uh clearly struggling
right now uh but it's certainly a burden
on the American taxpayer who is now
being hit with additional price hikes uh
of um uh products coming in from China and for
a president who ran on the the promise
of lowering prices for Americans to deal
with their serious pocketbook concerns
this is going the other way yeah
absolutely I I I want to I want to
expand upon that tariffs because I think
there's such a misconception with with
tariffs uh you know for example I saw
this tweet four truths about tariffs
tariffs don't cause inflation tariffs
lead to lower prices for American
consumers tariffs create American jobs
and tariffs lead to lower income taxes
take us from a the mind of an economist
can you break down these comments and
just kind of give us a little bit more
common sense into what tariffs really do
well are you sure that came from a
financial guy or did did it come from
the White House I mean that sounds
pretty much like it's pairing the
convoluted views of our president on
tariffs who absolutely does not
understand what a tariff is uh from his
point of view tariffs are a tax on
foreign countries and he wants to
capture that tax and bring it back home
and it to fund his Maga agenda what that
fails to appreciate is the tariffs are
paid um at the the port uh of um
embarcation by American companies who do
the importing so it's it's a cost
increase on us and the idea that that
lowers prices creates jobs and opens up
great new opportunities is something
that you know a politician might argue
but there's there's no credible
Economist that I know of that believes
that yeah that makes sense thank you for
breaking it down and simplifying that I
just wanted to get that out there so our
audience can really understand that and
and tell us about this these new tariffs
because I I do think there's also
another provision for example that uh
you know for examp for a long time items
that were under $800 uh and this would
definitely affect Chinese companies like
shien um and also Teemu but basically
these payments you know if they were
under $800 they would not be subject to
teror I believe that has now been
included as well is that correct there
so basically like you said earlier is it
everything now coming from China is
subject to this new tax and new I think
that's true I've heard the same thing I
have not uh checked the exact uh
stipulations as published yesterday in
the National register but but that would
not surprise me at all if there was a
clear inclination to capture that but
again that is going to be paid by say
you know individuals who want to buy
lowcost Chinese Goods on Tei or alib
they'll now be hit with these cost
increases and um you know it's far more
comprehensive in terms of coverage than
the current tariffs that are that are
now in place let's talk about Canada and
Mexico I think this is important for the
United States and because it's it's
interesting you could you could make the
argument that China you know is
potentially an adversary or certainly a
competitor to the United States you know
if you're going to put tariffs on China
some Americans can certainly understand
that but what is the rationale with with
really going after Canada and Mexico
obviously the White House says it's
because of the fenol and because of this
this problems but expand upon this a
little bit help us understand more about
what this would actually mean if if 25%
tariffs uh were were hit to our Canadian
neighbors and also our Mexican neighbors
what would that look for their economies
but also our own economy well first of
all just just as a pre preface to that
uh important question if we have a
fentanyl problem with Mexico uh or an
immigration problem uh with Mexico and
by the way number show that we have n
none of those problems Canada despite
what the president claims and I mean
zero like 4/10 of a percent of fentanyl
traffic in the US 4/10 comes from Canada
you know less than 2% of illegal
immigration over the last 10 years has
come from Canada so we don't have
problems there we do have them with
Mexico let's address them on the basis
of uh negotiating uh head-to-head on
those issues but not use tariffs to try
to accompl
that um uh that that end uh the tariffs
uh which deal with crossb trade flows go
right to the heart of what president
Trump called in 2020 uh the greatest
trade deal in modern history the US
Mexico Canada agreement known as usmca
uh and the three North American
countries have deeply integrated supply
chain connectivity where Goods
sophisticated Goods Autos being the
class classic example flip back and
forth across uh the borders eight or
nine times before the finished product
um is um delivered to dealers Lots uh
this is a very very efficient
state-of-the-art modern integrated
trilateral production system and taxing
uh our allies who are key cogs in that
production system basically means
ripping apart the production platform
that was established by quote the
greatest trade deal in modern history
you know Canada is um clearly a proud
and sovereign country unlike uh what
Donald Trump says is a country that
would benefit handsomely by becoming our
cherished 51st state they're proud
they're angry they're pissed off and uh
you know the president flinched
yesterday uh in backing down on tffs
claimed that he got some Border prote
Protection that actually was already in
place uh in in any case you know 30-day
grace period to um you know figure out
uh if he wants to go back and again try
to squeeze one of our greatest allies
one of our greatest uh economic
collaborators uh with a you know
ridiculous tariff scheme and if he does
you know the Canadians will retaliate in
Spades and it'll be a race to the bottom
yeah I think there's there's no winner
in that at all I mean it's going to be I
think the US consumer and the Canadian
consumer is certainly going to be the
biggest losers I mean we saw for the
first time I think since the Iraqi War
Canadians actually booing the national
anthem at hockey games uh you know
certainly not the way you want to be
treating your like you said your closest
Ally and your closest they're angry you
know they're understandably angry that
you know we would have the audacity to
turn on a nation that we share the
longest border of any two nations in um
uh the world and that we have had an
amazingly Cooperative collaborative
relationship with on all terms uh for a
long long period of time yeah absolutely
let's let's shift this conversation back
to us China relations specifically and I
want to get your thoughts on uh Donald
Trump 2.0 um you know I want to get your
thoughts on the future of this
relationship because I I believe that
Donald Trump is surrounding himself with
very hawkish people in his
administration there was a rumor last
week that a gentleman Kyle bass for
example uh would join Trump's
Administration he he has gone on the
record saying that China is a mortal
enemy of the United States I think he's
an extremist I wouldn't think that he
would be providing solid advice to the
president and his his administration you
know are are you worried about the
hawkish people that Donald Trump is
associating himself with and bringing
into his administration and and how will
that affect the future of us China
relations you know he loves uh China
Hawks I mean keep in mind he's got uh
the ex-convict Peter Navaro working for
him once again in the White House his
last book on China was called Death by
China uh Kyle bass is a sole brother I
think of Peter Navaro in terms of his
extreme views on China and um you know
Marco Rubio Secretary of State very
hawkish on China um the National
Security advisor uh Waltz is also a an
avowed China Hawk but you know bottom
line is the president is a China Hawk he
surrounded himself with likeminded
individuals you know he might uh want to
cut a deal with um uh xinping because he
likes being able to say that he is um
neutralized strong foreign adversarial
Powers but uh you know there's no reason
to be optimistic that that is uh in the
offing China has uh clearly very
aggressive and in some cases worrisome
Ambitions of their own and um you know
we have a policy that is really focused
on containing uh if not bringing down
China uh as we know and so it's it's
going to be difficult for us to reverse
course do you um let's get your thoughts
on on the latest tech breakthrough I
mean obviously deep seek R1 it
absolutely rattled Wall Street over a
trillion dollars lost uh you know the
next day because you know this amazing
technological breakthrough uh that is
open source I mean it truly is a gift to
the world it is a great piece of
technology done for fractions of the
cost that open AI was able to do that do
you think that this is an example of
this this containment strategy from the
United States uh not really a able to
work I mean is this really is it really
just impossible to contain China because
they're just going to figure out a way
to innovate well I wrote a um an essay
last week that got a lot of comments
that um argued that this um small yard
high fence approach of the Biden
Administration as has been described
aimed at stopping uh Chinese technology
dead in its track is an abject failure
and I cited two examples to prove that
the extraordinary reemergence of Phoenix
like of Huawei and then um the emergence
of of deep seat uh to create large
language uh machine learning models uh
they can deliver comparable output to
our state-of-the-art IIA machines uh in
America uh as you put it correctly at 5
to 10% of of of of the cost so um you
know what have we accomplished with the
small yard high fence in terms of
Technology containment if anything we
have instilled I think greater incentive
on China to um develop state-of-the-art
technology indigenously and to do so in
a way that is not nearly as dependent on
us technology as we would like to
believe I mean again I go back to Huawei
there's a lot of Focus right now on deep
seek but huawe you know they have a a
very competitive um smartphone 5G
compatible AI compatible that is no
longer reliant on the Android operating
system they they rely on their own uh
internally developed operating system uh
and it's a you know lowcost very
powerful high-priced alternative uh to
um apple and uh uh Samsung and deep seek
you know again the US AI Community is
complaining and that's something that
we're you know America's always good at
in how we react to Chinese Innovation
we've complained constantly for years
they're complaining that the Deep seek
draws on uh the output of large language
models built in the US allegations by
the way that have not been verified but
um you know the the idea that a company
like open AI uh is complaining that a
truly open system like deep seek is
utilizing their output in and of itself
smash of extraordinary hypocrisy oh it
does yeah it's remarkable I mean um I
sued that open AI change its corporate
name to closed AI if they're want to be
so protective of their proprietary
search technology yeah that's a good
point Professor I I think what we've
certainly seen is that um necessity is
the mother of invention and we've
certainly seen China be able to do a lot
more with less uh again I mean I
wouldn't bet against China to develop
Tech I mean when you travel there you
certainly can see the advanced Society
they live in certainly on the cusping
edge of the greatest Technologies it's
it's always exciting to go back to China
but I want to talk a little bit about
you know I think the Cornerstone of the
US China relationship with is which is
Taiwan of course very very important
part of this relationship and I I did
see an article uh from the straight
times that was quite remarkable it was
taiwan's president who said that taiwwan
and China need peace giving multifold
changes internationally and he would
like to seek uh dialogue instead of
Confrontation I think that was very
positive um development you know
certainly with with this give me your
thoughts on Taiwan and and really how
you know that piece is going to evolve
in the future of us China relations well
you know it's obviously of great
importance to the the Chinese Communist
leadership uh in a speech late last year
Xi Jinping laid out what he um called
his four red lines the sort of inviable
issues that concern him the most and the
top priority uh is Taiwan and that
certainly implies that that anyone who
threatens the independence of Taiwan uh
is crossing uh the biggest red line
there's a lot of uh reports recently
about new um military breakthroughs and
large uh defense bunkers being built in
Beijing to prepare for an evental War I
don't really put a lot of credence in
those reports as being considered
consistent with a war in the next few
years as we like to think is the case in
the United States but um you know Taiwan
is certainly uh an issue that needs to
be resolved one way or another hopefully
peacefully in you know the next 5 to 10
years there's been a lot of progress in
Cross Straits economic uh integration
and um you know there needs to be I
think a better way to manage the
geostrategic tensions between um not
just you know China and Taiwan but China
and the United States where we have
politicians who continue to uh throw
their support to um Taiwan Independence
and do so explicitly by making
semi-official visits like Nancy Pelosi
did several summers ago that really was
a major setback to the stability of the
the relationship yeah no absolutely I I
think the uh the Tai Taiwan issue
certainly the Cornerstone of us China
relations as well um but what are what
are some other key variables that are
going to be dictating the future of us
China relations I mean we've got the
trade War we've got Taiwan what what
other things are you looking at for in
the future of this relationship well
look you know expand the gamut from
trade and Technology to Industrial
policy to subsidies of state-owned
Enterprises both in China and the United
States they touch on the broad Global
issues that uh were both critically
involved in such as Global Health
climate change cyber security uh and
obviously human rights and you know i'
I've argued uh that we need to establish
a a new bilateral Secretariat where both
uh Nations address these and many other
issues uh on a full-time basis 247
continually uh at a very expert
technocratic level uh so that when
situations come up that we're unprepared
for whether it's a spy balloon or a
naval accident in the Taiwan straight
that we have in place the experts and uh
the official support to troubleshoot uh
resolve and come to agreements on these
uh tough issues the current way of
Engagement Cyrus is we've outsourced it
to politically driven uh leaders and we
put far too much emphasis on leader to
leer diplomacy which is I think a um you
know it's important but you know we we
need an Institutional compliment to
leader to leer diplomacy to keep this
relationship moving ahead on a continual
basis relying on expertise rather than
on uh the personalized whims of
political leaders can you expand upon it
that the Secretariat idea I I want I
really want people to understand that
you know I had the pleasure of hearing
you speak a couple weeks ago in San
Francisco we were both there attending
the future of us China relations
conference you gave the opening keynote
speech a fantastic one I think that was
a really key point in your speech was
talking about this Secretariat with this
would this be an individual would it be
a team would it be appointed from the
United States how do you envision that
really working to help facilitate this
this US general relationship it would be
a bilateral secretary be which would be
the first Secretariat organization
between two major nations in history it
would be staffed by an equal complement
of us and Chinese uh professional
scientists trade lawyers economists if
you want um experts on health uh legal
issues and all the other issues that I
spoke just spoke about uh to you it will
be located in a neutral venue uh could
be Switzerland could be Singapore it
would be uh far uh different than uh
existing secretariats which are at the
heart of many of our multinational or
multilateral organizations like the un
the oecd the World Trade Organization
the World Health Organization which are
largely set up for uh administrative
convenience this would be an
organization that is focused on
collaborative resolution of thorny
policies again spanning the gamut from
economics and trade all the way to
Global Health cyber security and uh
climate change with uh many other issues
in between they would be charged with
developing collaborative white papers
aimed at providing policies or new
agreements on these issues that would be
fed into the legislative process of both
governments and resolved uh through
negotiations uh conducted under the opes
of the Secretariat when disputes arise
as they inevitably do in any um complex
set of multilateral or excuse me
bilateral uh agreements there would be a
dispute screening function and dispute
resolution function uh that would avoid
conflict so it's a different approach
than we have right now to engagement and
I think we need a new approach to
engagement because the current approach
again heavily weighted uh in terms of
leader to leer diplomacy has not worked
look at the conflict that we are in
right now so we need a new piece a new
leg to the stool uh to build um I think
a a far more productive less
confrontational relationship between the
United States and China that's a Fant
fantastic Insight thank you for breaking
down that idea of the Secretariat you
know obviously not just an individual an
entire group um staffed by both us and
China neutral location and I like the
idea of shifting from something
different than what we're currently
doing um and and definitely maintaining
that that open line of communication 247
those those are some amazing takeaways
Professor roach I've so enjoyed our
conversation today I've got one final
question I'd like to ask all my guests
you know what is what is one thing that
you want the world to know about China
what what do most people misunderstand
or if you had one thing that you could
tell everybody what would that be that
they have very human needs like the rest
of us we tend to vilify or put the
Chinese in a box as if they're an alien
population that um you know is is coming
from a very different place for us than
we are not that long ago they they were
an impoverished country in 1980 80% of
the population was rural they've come
dramatically a long way since then uh but they still
have a long way to go in raising their
standard of living to that of a more
developed society and they thirst for
Economic and Development and prosperity
uh the same way that that we do they
call it the Chinese dream just like we
call it uh the American dream and the
realization of the Chinese dream does
not necessarily have to mean uh that
that is a threat uh to the dream of
other nations including our own American
Dreams so I think we need to go back
to deepening our understanding of the
the needs and wants of the Chinese
people and recognizing they have a
different system uh that organizes their
government but that does not necessarily
change the very real needs that lie
behind that system that's a fantastic
answer I think so many times we forget
that you know in China there's uh
families and and husbands and and you
know wives and just normal people living
their life very very not much different
than what we're doing we're all trying
to advance in life and trying to you
know hopefully leave the world a better
place so uh Professor roach I I can't
thank you enough for your time today and
your insights were fantastic where can
we follow your work where's the best
place that our our fans and audience can
connect to see your work well you know
it changes sis but uh in the last year
or so I've been uh writing on a regular
basis at least once a week sometimes
twice a week on substack so search my
name under substack the name of the uh
the platform for me is called conflict
uh to um draw attention to uh the
conflict between the United States and
China and most importantly the need to
resolve that conflict before it is too
late yeah fantastic fantastic Professor
o thank you again for your time we're
going to put the links to your substack
down in the description so everybody can
follow along and everybody make sure you
drop some comments down below let us
know what you thought of today's
interview and what you think of the
future of us China relations everyone
thank you as always for your amazing
support and I'm so happy that I can
bring in worldclass guests like Professor Steven roach to help us all
understand more about China and its rolein the world.
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