【业界观点】谢百三：上轮牛市和本轮行情的共同点和不同点共性之一：都是政府推动的。
2007年的大牛市，其实起源于2005年5月初，中国决定实行股权分置改革。温总理听了中国证监会汇报后，于2005年4月下旬表示，过了“五一”节就改革，据说，他当时还说：改得成功不成功，就看股市涨不涨。
而本轮起于1660点的牛市也是政府全力支持下发生的。例如：股市还在2900点[阅读全文]
子夜读书心筆
写日记的另一层妙用，就是一天辛苦下来，夜深人静，借境调心，景与心会。有了这种时时静悟的简静心态， 才有了对生活的敬重。
博文
(2009-05-25 00:02:32)
(2009-05-24 23:58:21)
StrategistsKeep2009S&P500PriceTargetat949
TheWallStreetstrategiststhatBloombergpollseachweekhaven'tchangedtheiryear-endS&P500pricetargetssincemid-March.Butbydoingnothing,theircollectivepricetargethasgottenmuchclosertotheactualleveloftheindexsincethemarkethasralliedsomuch.Atthestartoftheyear,strategistsasawholewerelookingforayear-endS&P500priceof1,049,whichwouldhavemeantagainof16.2%...[阅读全文]
(2009-05-24 23:45:50)
ThisChartCanKillAnyBullbyPaulLearton
Thisbearmarketisnowherenearover.SinceitsMarch10lowof666,theS&P500hasralliedmorethan20%.Punditsandmediacommentatorsalikehavetakenthistomeanthatthebearmarketisoverandthatstocksshouldonceagainbetheprimaryassetclassforinvestors.Noneofthemknowwhatthey’retalkingabout.Overthelast18months,themediahasbeenrifewith“bottomcallers,”allofwhomhavenotonlybeenwrong,b...[阅读全文]
(2009-05-24 23:43:55)
CharlieMunger:'We'veScrewedUp'byPaulKedrosky
Fromanewinterview,Berkshire'sotherguy,CharlieMunger,talkstoughaboutlife,theuniverseandhowscrewedupwe'vemadethings:WorsethantheGreatDepression?Theeconomyhasn'tcontractedasmuchasduringtheGreatDepression,butthemalfeasanceandsilliness,thetriggeringeventsfortoday'scrisis,weremuchgreaterandmorewidespread.Inthe'20s,atinyclassofpeoplewerefinancialpromotersa...[阅读全文]
Fromanewinterview,Berkshire'sotherguy,CharlieMunger,talkstoughaboutlife,theuniverseandhowscrewedupwe'vemadethings:WorsethantheGreatDepression?Theeconomyhasn'tcontractedasmuchasduringtheGreatDepression,butthemalfeasanceandsilliness,thetriggeringeventsfortoday'scrisis,weremuchgreaterandmorewidespread.Inthe'20s,atinyclassofpeoplewerefinancialpromotersa...[阅读全文]
(2009-05-24 23:39:40)
LookingatthesupercycleofhowmanyouncesofgolditcoststobuytheS&P,andprojectingintothefuture,indicatesthathedgingbybeingshorttheindexandlonggoldshouldpayoffveryhandsomely...atsomepointinthe2015-2017period.Chart2superimposesthecurrentcyclewiththepastcycle-similarities?
[阅读全文]
(2009-05-24 23:35:43)
Already,the"greenshoots"offutureinflationaresproutingforthinthecommoditiesmarket.Basemetals,energy,grains,andfertilizerarecharginghigher,spurredalongbyChina’sgreatsuckingsound,asBeijingpursuesamajorefforttostockpilerawmaterials,withpriceshoveringnearmulti-yearlows.Beijingisspending4-trillionyuanoninfrastructure,tobringitsroads,ports,airports,power-generationcapacityandotherinfrastructuresyst...[阅读全文]
(2009-05-24 23:34:10)
IstheU.S.DollarHeadedforaMightyCrash?PartIbyGaryDorsch
Eachmonth,theUSTreasurypublishesitsInternationalCapitalaccount(TIC)whichforeigncurrencytradersandbonddealersusetogaugetheflowsofmoneyfromaroundtheworld,intoandoutoftheUScapitalmarkets.Thedemandforanation’sbondsandstocks,combinedwithinternationaltradeflowsforgoodsandservices,plusbehindthescenesinterventionbycentralbanks,allactinconcerttoin...[阅读全文]
(2009-05-24 23:31:14)
WildMarketSwings,2007-2009byMarketFolly
GreatchartbelowfromTheChartStorethatillustratesjusthowvolatileandseesaw-ishthismarkethasbeenoverthepast2years.Therehavebeenrapid,massivedeclinesandequallymassiverallies.ThecurrentrallyfromthelowsinMarch2009extendsover39%.Maybeweshouldhighlightcontrariansignalsmoreoften,aswedidbackinearlyMarch.Thosesignalswehighlightedturnedouttobeagreatbarometerforashort...[阅读全文]
(2009-05-24 23:29:00)
TreasuryYieldsWillContinuetoRisebyCalafiaBeachPundit
TheFedistryingtofightaforceofnature—thebondmarket—andtheyareboundtolose.Purchasinglong-maturityTreasuries,mortgage-backedsecuritiesorcorporatebondsinanatttempttokeeptheiryieldslowisaself-defeatingstrategy,sinceatsomepointitwillsupplyunwanteddollarstotheworldthatwillfuelinflation.Ultimately,inflationandinflationexpectationsarewhatdrivebondy...[阅读全文]
(2009-05-24 23:27:17)
UpdateonU.S.DebtandFedAssetsbyRolfeWinkler,CFA
PublicDebtOutstandingisapproaching$11.3trillion…Clickcharttoenlargeinnewwindow…andfearsaboutthisgrowingdebtburdenhelpeddrivethedollartoa4-monthlowtoday.Biggercontributorstothedollar’sfallincludedcommentsfromtheBankofJapan,whichsaiditwouldn’tpropupgreenbacks.Also,S&P’snew“negative”outlookforUKsovereigndebthadBillGrosscommentingthat“even...[阅读全文]
