分析师“三宗罪”：至少落后K线图半年
“有两家大券商这两天都在开明年的策略会，我一个都不会去听。我认为这是浪费时间。”11月27日中午，一位著名的公募基金投资总监这样告诉理财周报记者。
他给出的逻辑很简单。“我为什么要相信这样一群几乎没有任何投资经验的毛孩子呢？”
确如他所言，在刚刚过去的一年中(实际情况是两[阅读全文]
子夜读书心筆
写日记的另一层妙用，就是一天辛苦下来，夜深人静，借境调心，景与心会。有了这种时时静悟的简静心态， 才有了对生活的敬重。
博文
(2008-12-03 19:54:51)
(2008-12-03 19:20:51)
BillGrossSaysStocksAren’tasCheapasTheyAppear(Update1)
ByMichaelJ.MooreDec.2(Bloomberg)--BillGross,manageroftheworld’sbiggestbondfund,saidstocksaren’tascheapastheyappeargiventhattheeraofderegulation,lowborrowingcostsandtaxcutsisover.“Stocksarecheapwhenvaluedwithinthecontextofafinanced-basedeconomyoncedominatedbyleverage,cheapfinancingandevenlowercorporatetaxrates,”PacificInvestmentManageme...[阅读全文]
ByMichaelJ.MooreDec.2(Bloomberg)--BillGross,manageroftheworld’sbiggestbondfund,saidstocksaren’tascheapastheyappeargiventhattheeraofderegulation,lowborrowingcostsandtaxcutsisover.“Stocksarecheapwhenvaluedwithinthecontextofafinanced-basedeconomyoncedominatedbyleverage,cheapfinancingandevenlowercorporatetaxrates,”PacificInvestmentManageme...[阅读全文]
(2008-12-03 19:18:04)
LetterfromTPG-Axon.Theirinvestmentoutlookisonpage11-13.
OtherthingsthatIfoundhelpful:-Bothcyclical(weakeningglobalgrowth)andstructural(delevopingnationgrowth)factorsareimportant-forthepastfiveyears,bothwerealigned;inthenextfewyears,theyarelikelytobeopposed.-Hedgefundshavegrownfrombeingopportunisticinvestorscirclingthemarketforopportunities,toactuallybeingacorepartofthemarketitself.Thistransiti...[阅读全文]
OtherthingsthatIfoundhelpful:-Bothcyclical(weakeningglobalgrowth)andstructural(delevopingnationgrowth)factorsareimportant-forthepastfiveyears,bothwerealigned;inthenextfewyears,theyarelikelytobeopposed.-Hedgefundshavegrownfrombeingopportunisticinvestorscirclingthemarketforopportunities,toactuallybeingacorepartofthemarketitself.Thistransiti...[阅读全文]
(2008-12-03 19:14:42)
CAPITAL&THETHRUSTOFHISTORYBillWernerisanEngineerinMissouriCity,Texas.ThefollowingishisattempttoEncapsulateAllofModernEconomicHistory(withabonuspushtothefuture)inoneeasytoswallowredpill.Turnawayandthinkwhatyoulike.OrswallowthisredpillleadingdowntherabbitholetoseeanotheraspectofwhatIcall“TheVastMatrixofModelsofMind-stuff”weabidein.~~~
“‘Idon’tknowwheretobegin’saidtheWhiteRabbit.
‘...[阅读全文]
“‘Idon’tknowwheretobegin’saidtheWhiteRabbit.
‘...[阅读全文]
(2008-12-03 19:13:40)
昨晚读到以下这篇文章，供参考。2009年消费增速和哪些消费类别将具备防御性是市场关注的问题，我们认为：1）总体增速判断采用中金宏观组的预测：最终消费支出增速9.5%，城市居民支出增速7%（以上为实际增速）。2）对于内生增长（老门店的销售增速），我们采用城市居民的“人均”名义消费支出增速来作为估计的基础，预计在5％左右。人均消费支出增速低于最终消费支[阅读全文]
(2008-12-02 00:39:37)
GoldmanFacesLossof$2BillionforQuarterBySUSANNECRAIG,CARRICKMOLLENKAMPandSERENANGGoldmanSachsGroupInc.,knownforavoidingmanyoftheblowupsthathavebattereditsWallStreetrivals,nowislikelytoreportanetlossofasmuchas$2billionforitsquarterendedNov.28,accordingtoindustryinsiders.Theloss,equaltoabout$5ashare,wouldbemorethanfivetimesassteepasthecurrentanalystconsensusfortheWallStreetfirm,asitfaceswrite-downson...[阅读全文]
(2008-12-01 22:32:34)
**ExplainswhyIdon'tthinkwecanspendourwayoutofrecession.
PublicWorksMeanTaxes
FromEconomicsinOneLesson,byHenryHazlittThereisnomorepersistentandinfluentialfaithintheworldtodaythanthefaithingovernmentspending.Everywheregovernmentspendingispresentedasapanaceaforalloureconomicills.Isprivateindustrypartiallystagnant?Wecanfixitallbygovernmentspending.Isthereunemployment?Thatisobviouslydueto“...[阅读全文]
(2008-12-01 22:30:21)
美国经济自2007年12月起即已陷入衰退大|中|小2008年12月02日07:28
美国国家经济研究局(NationalBureauofEconomicResearch)公布的信息显示，美国经济陷入衰退已有约一年的时间。
美国国家经济研究局在一份公告中称，该机构下属的商业周期测定委员会(BusinessCycleDatingCommittee)已认定美国经济于2007年12月陷入衰退，标志着始于2001年11月的经济扩张期的结束。2001年11月是上一次美国经济衰[阅读全文]
(2008-12-01 19:58:32)
Howcanyounotlovethiscartoon?JohnSherffiusisthecreatorofthis.Ifanyoneknowshowtogetaholdofhim(Ialreadytriedtheonlineemail)Iwouldlovetogetpermissiontouseafewofhiscartoonsforthebook.
**KeynesianstudentisnowsayingKeyneshadnosurecure.Perhapsonecan'tjustspendhiswayoutoftherecession.Justalittlebitacademichere..FiscalPolicyPuzzles
byGregMankiw
AsastudentofAlanBlinder,LarrySummers,andStanleyFisc...[阅读全文]
(2008-12-01 18:11:50)
December2,2008---LestHaveBernankePut!
Itwasadaywhenallriskyassetsfellasstocks,commoditiesandoilallgetclobberedcloseto10%.USstocksplungedandwipedoutmorethanhalfoflastweek’sgainbiggestweeklyrallyin34yrs).Economicwise,datawasweakacrosstheworld,fromChinatoEuropetotheUS,butwasunlikelythemaincauseofthemarketmeltdown…itwasWhitneyInterviewthatcausedFinancialscollapsed17%(after+31%lastweek),plusitwas...[阅读全文]
Itwasadaywhenallriskyassetsfellasstocks,commoditiesandoilallgetclobberedcloseto10%.USstocksplungedandwipedoutmorethanhalfoflastweek’sgainbiggestweeklyrallyin34yrs).Economicwise,datawasweakacrosstheworld,fromChinatoEuropetotheUS,butwasunlikelythemaincauseofthemarketmeltdown…itwasWhitneyInterviewthatcausedFinancialscollapsed17%(after+31%lastweek),plusitwas...[阅读全文]
