MyDiary367---EconomicDecouplingandFinancialCoupling;GoodPolicyResponsesNeeded;DiversificationinRecessionJanuary17,2008TwobombsinWednesdayandglobalequitymarketsmoveddown1.5%inwhole,whileAsianstockssawthegreatestdecrease(Nikkeiplunged3.4%).Equitiesinemergingmarketshavegivenbackalltheirgainssincethestartofthecreditturmoilandnowstandattheirmid-summerlevels.Stocksarenowbeginningtoquestiontheprospectsof...[
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MyDiary366---2008MarketOutlook(II):WhenChinaStops,BDIDrops;WhenChinaTalks,CommodityPops;WhenWorldEconomySoftens,DollarStrengthensJanuary8,2008EverythingthatneededtohappenhashappenedonlastFriday.NFPcameinwellbelowexpectationsat18K.Theunemploymentratewentup0.3%to5.0%.Wehavenowseentheunemploymentratemoveup0.6%fromthelowsduringthiseconomiccycle.Lookingatthebigpicture,thelatestraftofeconomicdatahasbeen...[
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MyDiary365---2008MarketOutlook(I):TheNewYearHypothesis,LookingBeyondHousing,BondSittingonBombsJanuary6,2008Theexcitingyearof2007endedwithasadnoteofLadyBhutto’sassassination.Withthestartofanewyear,fundamentalsseemtopointtoachallengingenvironment.Lookingaround,notonlyhaveassetpricescomeunderstrain(thankstotroubleinthehousing,mortgageandcreditmarkets),butstocksandbondshavealsoswungwildly.Overnight,U...[
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2008,美国经济能否再平衡来源:证券时报发布时间:2007年12月21日
在经历了9个多月的次贷市场危机之后,投资者一直在思考这样一个问题:2008年世界经济前景将会如何?
笔者认为,答案的关键在于如何评估目前这场基于按揭贷款的信用/流动性危机对来年美国经济增长的影响,以及美联储面对危机时的反应力度和速度。特别是,如果美联储能够及时地防止次[
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再谈我为何不回国--孩子和中国的前途问题。2007-12-1621:58:23油绿绿的湖水的博客这可是老调重谈了,一定有人笑话。不过,反正是论坛吗,也就不妨说几句,欢迎拍砖,我很喜欢原创。有人看后会说我是年龄大的,不了解中国,或回国混不下去。我想关于我不了解中国的论调本身很可笑,因为我年龄大本身就是了解深刻的证明--至少比很多年轻人了解中国,而且我小学和初中受[
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揭秘:蒋介石四十年前的一份两岸统一方案(组图)2007-12-1321:48:42
在台湾的蒋介石
1954年,杜勒斯以“台湾地位未定”为由,制造“两个中国”。他面告蒋介石,美国把台湾同中国大陆之间的冲突看成是国际战争而不是内战。这一方案立刻遭到海峡两岸的猛烈抨击,双方都声明坚持一个中国的立场。蒋介石在台北的公众集会上强烈谴责“两个中国”的设想“荒谬”绝伦,斥责[
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MyDiary363---Theuncontainedsubprime,Therisingbaddebt,TheshiftingChinesePolicy,Thelong-termnegativeDollar;ThefundamentaldrivencommoditiesDecember11,2007Itisanotherweekpackedwithaseriesofimportantdataandtonight’sFOMCmeetingisdefinitelyunderthespotlightasfinancialconditionshaveworsenedmorethanexpected,witnessedbyfurtherupwardpressureonborrowingrates.LatestdevelopmentisthatovernightUSmarketclosedup(D...[
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年入逾亿美华人入选华尔街百位顶尖交易者(图)文章来源:中新网于2007-12-1009:40:33年入逾亿美华人入选华尔街百位顶尖交易者(图)
《交易者》(Trader)月刊是一本报导华尔街的专业杂志,在今年4月号杂志上,它刊登一份“百位顶尖交易者”名单,声称去年年收入超过五千万的金融精英才能入选。结果,赛克资本管理公司(SACCapitalManagement)华人基金经理江平,以年收入在1亿和1亿5000[
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MyDiary362---Section(2)Sthismorethansubprime,Everybodygetshurt,TheVampirestory,TheCostofconfidenceDecember7,2007Therealconcernoverrecentcreditcrisisisnothousingbubbleburst,butmoreoverconsumerspendingwhichisamultipleofHousing/ExportsintheweightingofGDP.Thekeymacroeconomicfunctionofbanksandgovernment-backedmortgageagencieshasbeentoserveasahighlyeffectiveengineforcreatingcreditfrombasemoneytomovetheA...[
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MyDiary361---Section(1)SubprimechangedtheOutlook,ReadingtheHard-to-read,ThetwoforcesplayDecember5,2007MygeneralimpressionaftertherecentChinaForumheldbyEuromoney,ICBCandHSBCisthatthereisanobviousgapofunderstandingChinabetweenforeignersanddomesticpolicymarkers.ItstillneedsmoretimesfortherestofworldtounderstandwhathashappenedandwhatisgoingoninChina.Foreignersshouldnotbringtheirwesternexperiencetofram...[
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