Premonition about the sudden change of stress field before the eruption of Tonga volcano
Jicheng Gu
(GU Institute of Earthquake Prediction）
Abstract：
A large earthquake with M=6.9 occurred @ 2022-01-08 01:45:30 (Local Time) in Qinghai, China. According to Gu 's theory, we are making predictions on the sequence development trend and strong aftershocks of this earthquake, and in advance, in the evening of 01-09, we have officially successfully predicted the followed strong aftershock: a strong aftershock with M3.0+ would occur at 5:41 AM on following morning of 01-10. The result was a strong aftershock with M3.1 really occurred at 6:18AM on the next day. Just after this prediction was successful, when we continued to track, we found that the large-scale stress field had abruptly changed. And it is proposed to be careful that there will be another large event in the next 3-5 days due to the tectonic stress unusually increased. As a result, a Tonga eruption occurred on the 14th and 15th. This did not happen in Qinghai. But it is likely to be the precursor of the impending earthquake before the volcanic eruption in the large-scale stress field of plate tectonics outside Qinghai.
