US:
We expect a mild recession will begin early next year with the subsequent recovery to begin in the second half of 2023. On an annual basis, we expect GDP to expand just 0.3% from 2022 to 2023. (On a four-quarter change basis, we expect GDP also to grow 0.3% in 2023.)
China:
With this change coming sooner than EIU had anticipated, we are revising up our forecast for China’s real GDP growth to 5.2% in 2023 (from 4.7%) and 4.8% in 2024 (from 4.5%).
Germany has invested heavily in China in the past four decades. China's first modern car was a Santana model that Volkswagen introduced into China. One can easily understand why Germany is reluctant to withdraw from China.
Unfortunately, China is no longer a good place to conduct business. Rising labor costs, loss of access to the advanced US technologies, animosity towards its neighbors, etc all make it a risky nation for foreign firms. Xi Jinping's arrogant mismanagement is the final nail in the coffin.
但德国之声绝对是德国企业界的敌人。