Your underlying assumption is polling samples are accurate. However, polling samples can be biased, for example, those republicans who don't want to vote for T but for H don't want to talk to pollsters, while MAMGs are more willing to answer polls. Another example is the under-estimate of new registered voters (most of them are young) who are leaning toward Harris. In swinging states with a very fine margin, those biases can make polls incorrect.
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the polling is better than your assumption. Polling is based on sampling.
晴天好好心情 发表评论于 2024-11-04 08:54:35
Your underlying assumption is polling samples are accurate. However, polling samples can be biased, for example, those republicans who don't want to vote for Trump but for Harris don't want to talk to pollsters, while MAMGs are more willing to answer polls. Another example is the under-estimate of new registered voters (most of them are young) who are leaning toward Harris. In swinging states with a very fine margin, those biases can make polls incorrect.
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the polling is better than your assumption. Polling is based on sampling.
我是大海 发表评论于 2024-11-04 08:41:29
Voted last week. Go Harris!
xiaoxiao雨 发表评论于 2024-11-04 07:44:37
the polling is better than your assumption. Polling is based on sampling.
