終統切割選票扁,這一仗是輸了

終統切割選票扁,這一仗是輸了 2006-03-11 12:23:16 轉寄 列印 聯合報記者羅曉荷 去年底縣市長選舉大敗後,民進黨的頹勢似乎難以挽回;短短三個月,民主聖地嘉義市兩度淪陷,南台灣版圖已遭侵蝕,民進黨執政,弱到只剩下一口氣。 受敗選骨牌效應影響,民進黨年底北高市長選情岌岌可危。陳水扁總統舞弄終統大旗,意在對抗馬英九,並切割本土票源,但嘉義市立委補選一役,顯示扁過度消費本土,削弱蘇謝等接班人的籌碼;離二○○八還有兩年,光芒正盛的馬英九,已撼動了民進黨執政江山。 民進黨敗選原因很多,若要歸咎提名策略不當、選戰找不到主軸等,也不能說錯。但民進黨在嘉義市連敗兩次,敗於資深立委黃敏惠,還可說是黃敏惠地方實力堅強、形象親和;但此次傾全黨之力,仍敗給形象不清楚、知名度又低的江義雄,就不能不探討執政基本面。 縣市長選舉大敗後,民進黨未痛下決心反省,反而內鬥更熾,執政弊端接二連三引爆。大環境已先天不良,陳總統執意操作終統議題,並希望藉此再拉起本土認同熱潮,效果卻適得其反。 陳總統此次刻意在嘉義市立委補選中缺席,既未造勢、也未掃街,連呼籲選民出來投票都沒有;改由接班天王蘇貞昌、游錫(方方土)等人出馬,但扁仍是握有實權的領袖,在扁刻意將路線導向「終統」的本土論戰時,選戰已完全在扁巨大身影的徽窒拢?漯N天王很難使力。 扁祭出終統,意在對抗如日中天的馬英九現象,不過,民眾對終統等政治議題造成的對抗、切割已感厭惡;民進黨中央執政疲態盡露,執政高層又無法展現清新氣象,陳水扁沉迷於政治議題操作的老把戲,也難怪人民會一再以選票背棄民進黨。 此次民進黨敗北,不但是民進黨在南台灣的連續挫敗,更顯示綠營氣勢一路下滑,未來仍看跌,影響所及,今年底北高市長選舉也沒有樂觀的理由;嘉義市單一席次立委補選的挫敗,預告民進黨後年立委選舉的艱困形勢,若再不振衰起敝,未來兩年的大型選舉,民進黨都將陷入苦戰。 陳總統以終統論的本土路線切割選票,親自上陣對抗馬英九,這一仗是輸了。行政院長蘇貞昌雖竭力避免政治爭議,著重提高執政效能,仍不敵扁政治掛帥路線,看來,扁是要替民進黨接班人決定二○○八時的政治方向。 【2006/03/12聯合報】

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