反弹就此结束, 准备面对熊市

反弹就此结束, 准备面对熊市

The fundamentals right now are leading a BEAR MARKET.

国际市场已初现疲惫的经济.

Aussie starts to show commodity weak demand, a sigh slow growth in economy. UK economy grew 0.5% in 3 months to March that is below trend and its house market show weak sign. Over all Euro market is still strong but the weak employment rate show something might not be that good in its economy. Facing pressure from inflation, China makes greater change of rate in curbing raid investment growth and the raising reserve requirement ratio becomes effective April 16 that will curb its stock market also. Although Japan is getting recovery, the economy numbers are still weak.

低于2% 的经济成长率不足以导致股市持续上升. 房市破裂将导致财经面等恶化, 高通货膨胀将导致低的消费. 房市见底仍然是一个传说中的神话.

US economic growth is sluggish and forecasts are coming down, below 2% gain this year isn’t enough for a continue market rally. After house market bubble burst, mortgage market, interest market will be in trouble. Although High inflation means strong economic demands, it also leads to a definitely slow consumer spending.

Don’t think US real estate market bottom, we are far away from that, according to the house market cycle, it is very likely real estate will be a drag on US economy through the end of 2008. The worse will spill over US banks, which might get more trouble next year.

公司收益下降, 利润会下调, 前景看坏.

Earnings growth expectations are dropping because of the worsening economic conditions. Earnings growth could go negative in the third quarter if margin pressures build due to rising wage costs. The earnings growth outlook is moving the wrong direction.

为坚挺美元, 近期减息已不可能, 即使减息, 也不能阻止经济变坏的状况.

For US $ reason, which is much much more important than US stock market, interest rates aren\'t going to come to the rescue of the stock market. Expectations of rate cuts this year are based more on hope than facts. Inflation remains at levels the Fed states are unacceptable, and there is no indication that inflationary pressures are easing. And even if a lower interest rate can’t save the market at current condition, why? Obviously, it isn’t too late, it is from the worse economy side.

油价高昂不下对经济只能是雪上加霜.

Oil price now is a big concern; in fact, it is already a trouble for the market. Given the high oil price and oil peak evidence, the odds of oil playing a role in either triggering or exacerbating a worldwide recession before the end of 2008 are very high. The skyrocketing commodity market will also add more pressure to international economy, and now even the worst is coming: food price is soar more.

消费者消费大打折扣, 信用危机不是危言耸听.

Consumer spending is definitely slow also now; especially consumer will get into credit debt problem. US ridiculous debt will leads to a debt bubble.

国际游资将继续涌进美国吗? 答案是否定的

The US $ keeps dip and dip more, that is evidence for the interest to US money. If $ loses more ground, US equity market will get a hit for sure. TIC data shows the less interest on US assets. A crash dollar will lead to a sharply, deeply recession. Now money is flowing into the safe place but not US.

伊朗依然是一个重大变数.

Iran war might not happen nowadays but might be someday.

这是熊市的脚印.

Here is the track of bear paw.
preventing US $ crash --> Fed save $ --> raise or stay IR --> house bubble worse -->  sub-prime burst more --> mortgage burst --> financial sector, bank burst --> high oil price -->  consumer spending slow -->  credit card debt burst --> slow economy growth --> corporation earning slow --> US stock market down ( plus uncertainty: Iran war)


我的重要结论: SP 500 将先下跌到 1265 点附近. 道琼先到 11085 附近. 纳斯达克 先到2135 点附近, 如果下跌不止, SP 500 将可能下跌到 1150. 熊市已别无选择, 至于能持续多久, 要看FED的政策变化.



来源: 华尔街大混混 于 07-04-09 10:57:18 [档案] [博客] [旧帖] [转至博客] [给我悄悄话]