以资源,财经板占74%的TSX前几周受美国次及贷款的信用危机拖累,出现大夫会调,上周四TSX曾跌-14.9%, 资源基金也平均跌了19%; 贵金属基金平均跌了24%,能源基金平均跌了16%. 这不禁引起人们对资源牛市能否继续,或商品大牛市完结的疑问.
今早传来,世界上最大的矿业公司BHP报告连续第二8个赢利的季度财报,称: weakness in the U.S. housing market shows no sign of hurting commodity demand in Asia and Europe. 公司CEO称:
Global demand for commodities remains strong, driven by China, buyer of a fifth of BHP's products, Chief Executive Officer Charles Goodyear said. The average cash price for nickel, used in stainless steel, more than doubled in the half, and copper, used in pipes and wires, rose 12 percent.
``The commodities markets are pretty solid across the globe,'' said Neil Boyd-Clark, who helps manage the equivalent of $3.5 billion at ABN Amro Asset Management in Sydney. ``Subprime issues are more confined to Western markets, rather than the Chinese economy, which drives their growth.''
``The group's economic outlook and significantly raised dividend offer confidence, though the shares will clearly remain at the mercy of wider market turbulence,'' said Simon Toyne, an analyst at Numis Securities Ltd. in London.
``Supply-side pressures will remain high and demand growth from China is expected to remain robust,'' BHP said in a statement to the exchange. ``The global economy remains robust, driven by solid activity in Asia and Europe.''
``Our customers in China and India believe domestic supply and demand criteria are much more important factors in their markets,'' BHP said.
New CEO'
The miner had record annual production for natural gas, alumina, aluminum, copper, nickel, iron ore, manganese ore and coking coal. It expects ``significant volume growth'' in oil, copper, iron ore and nickel in 2008.
BHP is the world's top producer of coal for the steel industry and third-biggest iron-ore exporter. It controls Chile's Escondida copper mine, the world's largest, and also produces oil and gas.
此外:
-TSX MINGING指数在MA200天均线附近出现大力反弹,有望继续保持牛市上行的势头;
-黄金仍然被看好,在660附近得到支撑;
- 中国股市继续创新高,受次贷危机的影响有限,有望继续保持增长,
-中印对商品及原财料的需求增长收受次贷危机的影响有限,资源板继续看好;
-亚洲及欧洲股市继续保持增长,
等等
因此,资源板依然看好,TSX有望在明年初再创新高度
