Tigger Investing (TM): LONG

LONG's operation has a total failure, has some $150m on book, more of that than CTRP, rev at only 1/3 of CTRP, profitability next to none, it's Enterprise Value is sitting at a dismal $150m.

CTRP's Enterprise Value is at $3.1m.

the only trigger for LONG would be for its majority owner, Expedia, to give it up and sell to CTRP, with price tag at, say $500m of Enterprise Value, which would be half of CTRP's own Enterprise Value/Sales.

merits:

for EXPE, gains a real slice of Chinese demostic travel, go on with faster moving instead of 1 step forward and 1 step back,

CTRP, double the cash, total synergy, instantly and much enhanced EPS,
taking over the #2 rival and becoming untouchably dominant facing new challengers, like mangocity.com which is running by Chinese Travel, etc,
AND, gain a partner for outbound travelling business,

odds:

maybe less than 20%. But some rumors started to float around that EXPE might be starting to give up...