华尔街金融恐怖主义的挫败

收获了一种恬静的生活, 像一条波澜不惊的小河, 流过春夏 流过秋冬
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        美国众议院的投票情况 How the House voted 

  Yes
(同意)
  No
(反对)
Democrats
民主党
14095
Republicans
共和党
65133
Total
合计
205228

今天美众议院以228票对205票否决了布什政府的7000亿金融营救计划,这让华尔街金融操控者倍感挫败。他们操控的金融给整个市场造成的打击,就像911恐怖分子摧毁纽约双塔一样,金融之塔轰然倒下,顿显一片狼藉:道琼斯力跌777点,明天说不定破关键的万点。
 
 
本来,谁拉的谁擦屁股。可保尔森的高盛背景,他的所谓救市当然用的是股市操作原则:发债券的不见得要赔钱,倒卖债券的经纪一定旱涝保收,股民马,管不了那多,一定是大多数不赚钱。

面对华尔街生产的“毒债券”,如同中国老百姓不知道到底还有什么食品没污染一样,美国的议员,和他的选民一样,也不知道这毒债券的污染程度到底有多大,黑洞到底有多深。现实是,中国老百姓现在不会买毒奶,美国/全球股民老百姓谁又会买毒债券?

不论白宫对投票结果如何失望,不论持有美国债券的国家多担心,其实,最为难过的一定是保尔森在华尔街的影子---- 那些“毒债券的炮制者”和“市场推销的弄潮儿”。

人们的疑虑

1)布什政府想用7千亿收购那些陷于困境的“投机银行”呆账,以救美国经济。但真正的数目到底是什么,根本无人知晓。其中很大一部分可能根本分文不值。现在你要全民给投机银行家制造的残局买单,这些投机者的Promise是什么?

2)贪婪的华尔街大鳄,不仅至今没一个站出来说声对不起股民,甚至,个个垮台了还可以拿千万的退休金,真是昧良心。你让议员们如何向他的血本无归的股民交待。

3)那些华尔街大佬,个个利欲熏心,天天不择手段、有意掺假、糊弄股民,就像奶商掺假一样,是有意所为,带有犯罪嫌疑。其行为本应受到监管部门的惩处,现在可好,非但没受到惩罚,还要获得补赏,你说这不是明着给造假者开绿灯吗?你让股民和别的行业怎么理解?

4)连政府都没搞清这些烂债券的来龙曲末之前,就要全民帮他们买单“投资”,如果你是投资人,你会投吗?何况,就说这些投机银行拿到这些钱之后,真的能救市?他们是否拿它来再次肆意敛财,还是肆意挥霍?有法律监管他们的投资吗?

5)是不是要在金融领域对富佬们实行“社会主义”?让银行投资的利润私有化,让银行投资的损失公有制? 赢了自己发红包,输了由国家和纳税人承担?

人们不得不问。众议院马上面对选举,能不想一想吗。
 
走到今天,经济的危机已经超越1929年的黑色星期五。其规模之大,恐怕前所未有,可说是金融市场的911:一场世界规模的金融大恐怖。

这场危机是由来已久的

1)25年前,银行开始剥离于实际的经济(“实体经济”)而独立运作,资本界开始自己泡制跟现实经济毫无关系的资本泡沫。

2)工业界、商业界等实体经济开始失去了自我控能力。他们成了资本盘上的棋子,被资本炒作的市场所左右。一篇所谓的华尔街分析文章,就可以左右一家几万人的实体公司的涨落。

3)政府对资本市场毫不作为,严重失职,坐视其胡乱炒作,没有监督和调整。华尔街获利25%以上被视为正常 --- 请问那家实体公司可以创造25%以上的实际价值留给华尔街去挥霍?显然,在“华尔街那一步”的“利润”,根本和真正的经济无关,全是通过社会欺诈的经济泡沫。

4)最可怕的是,华尔街为代表的所有投机者,其贪婪的欲望无止尽。收了25%之后,还不满足,还要每半年再在上面转一圈,每圈再收你25%,就像旋转的舞步,让人眼花缭乱。现在终于在资本市场里转出了个大漩涡。华尔街的大鳄们都漩进去了,谁也转不出来。

5)华尔街的资本大鳄,空打空卖,高筑债台,不法交易成为桌面上的明面洗牌,1:10投,1:20投,人家雷曼兄弟们,资本与借贷的比例达到1:30,够爽吧?

6)面对漩涡,华尔街的资本大鳄没招, 就要挟大家一块死。他们把水趟得混混的,谁也跑不了。那就是现在的结局。可想而知多可怕。他们的所作所为,要说没危机那叫自己骗自己。有危机才叫太正常不过。 

困局

在纽约金融之塔被这些华尔街的金融恐怖主义者给轰然搞塌之后,纵火人自己也成了消防队长。那个财长保尔森可是高盛的前总裁,高盛的所作所为,华尔街到底干了些什么,他不比谁清楚。现在别的倒了,只有高盛留下了,身为财长的他,好像一下子成了美国金融资本主义的大救星。多么讽刺的一场戏!

如今,全世界没人再相信华尔街的市场精英还有什么自救能力。因此,面对这种烂局,如果没有7千亿的信心喊话,世界股市真的有可能马上就陷于全面崩溃,重演1929年的悲剧。 其实,7千亿吗,喊话的效用多过实际的效益。

我想,国会的大多数也知道应当通过。之所以他们否决,只是良知、良心、和不甘心:难道全美国就这样被那些华尔街的金融恐怖主义者要挟?即使一定要通过救市计划,让陷于困境的银行得以新生,让股市避免大局失控,那也得让那些华尔街的金融恐怖主义者偿还点什么。--- 这大概就是未来几天或几周要周旋的东西。尤其对那些深谙20年资本运作的大佬们,总该对社会大众有一点交待吧。 

说真的,我从来认为,本来金融市场只是实体市场经济的补充,现在可好,全部本末倒置,金融资本成了实体市场的主宰。本来救金融与救市场经济是两回事,现实被这些华尔街的人绑在一起了。就说7000亿让股市稳了,如果那些大佬还是东捞一把西捞一把,搞1:20, 1:30的投机讹诈,你说老百姓,尤其别的行业,能捞到一分一毛的好处吗?捞不到!你说要他7000亿干吗?

大家知道7000亿救不了经济市场,只能防止金融股市崩盘,只是给尔虞我诈的银行业继续敲诈的机会。国会真要通过7000亿,是不是应当首先通过一个立法 --- 首先保证可以对银行运作、产品的出炉、巨鳄的工资报酬都要立个上限,并且必须随时接受一个独立股民委员会的日常调查和严密监管。然而,就现有的法律,谁能成功束缚华尔街的金融资本家?在这些毒银行获救之后,谁能保证这种悲剧不再重演?谁能对作为银行、证券交易原动力的贪婪给以控制?

现在财长保尔森还能做什么?

7000亿方案是布什政府20日提交国会的,国会两党头头28日就方案细节达成一致意见:方案允许政府分阶段使用7000亿美元救市,最初的2500亿美元在方案得到国会批准付诸实施时即可马上使用,另外1000亿美元可在总统认为必要的时候动用,其余的3500亿则必须在国会进行评估之后才能使用。

布什的任务就是要向老百姓解释为什么要7000亿。布什把问题说得极为可怕。真不知几个月前他是如何唱好他治下的美立坚。一夜之间,就被他唱衰了。

财长保尔森说,政府将利用一切可以利用的手段来保护美国金融市场和美国经济。总统、保尔森、联储主席伯南克、国会领袖,都将会成为每天讨论和磋商的对象。

众院议长佩洛西说,救市方案未获通过不能接受,国会将继续努力让它通过。

众院多数党领袖霍耶说,解决金融危机是两党的责任,我们民主党履行了自己的责任。我们肯定会继续关注形势,看能采取什么样的行动。

不用说,众家就是要想一个变种的方案,再来过关。

再说,美国的法案,要是没有日本、中国和中东等国家的帮助,是不可能有好效果的。虽说美国是全球军事霸权,美元仍是主宰,但如果这些国家都抛售美国公债,或不持续购买,那美国就没得玩。他只能把利率调高以吸引买家,那么,本来已脆弱的美国经济将受到更大的打击。

现在这世道,日本、中国、沙特和其他大量持有美债的国家,虽然不会跟美国过不去,但根本不可能再买入更多的美元债务。美国前财长萨默斯说,这就是「金融的恐怖平衡」。他认为,「恐怖平衡」不可能永远只保护美国的利益。

全球对美元前景忧心,七千亿纾困计划会进一步压低美元汇价,各国政府手上的美元基金都会贬值。因此,对增加美元投资是全球审慎。

现在美国必须向全球作出某些担保性的说明,向准备改持欧元的海外人给些什么定心丸。

结语:

金融资本恐怖主义的毫无节制和极度贪婪,已经成为世界经济灾难的源泉和世界人民的公敌。现在如何组成一个遏制金融恐怖主义的统一战线,是全球朝野的关注。其实,它不仅在于美国本身,也在于海外美国债券的主要持有者。

马克思早已告诫我们资本的贪婪本性是血淋淋的。只是我们忘了先知教导。现在终于让我们尝到了资本恐怖的血腥。

人们在资本恐怖的血腥中觉醒,本身就是华尔街金融恐怖主义的挫败。

石头人 发表评论于
不用着急,救市自己掏钱是傻瓜!
827 发表评论于
还是老毛说得对,美国政府是美国垄断资本的代表,他是不会代表人民利益的. 从这次救市看得出,政府救的是金融垄断资本,对人民的损失根本是不屑一顾. 马列毛还是英明的.
chali 发表评论于
是不是要在金融领域对富佬们实行“社会主义”?让银行投资的利润私有化,让银行投资的损失公有制(由国家和纳税人承担)?

good
chaya 发表评论于
To: princessannie


贪婪是所有人的本性!!!

But to be fair, whoever 堕落, should pay...

It is not fair that people share their losses but not their profits... that's the problem adressed here.

princessannie 发表评论于
贪婪是所有人的本性,用不着站着说话不腰疼。就像如今国内的贪污腐败大淫窟,那能是个人的原因造成的吗?把你放进去试试,不出事你才是圣人。不要高估自己的抵抗力,没有堕落是我们这些普通人根本就没有机会受到考验。
武胜 发表评论于
说得有点过了.华尔街的确讨厌,可恶,但不是以恐怖为手段.要是华盛顿以威逼手段勒令各国拿出钱来救它,这就有点恐怖的味道了. 对内,金融资本还是以绑架经济和欺骗为主.
gq 发表评论于
231名美国经济学家致信国会,反对政府救市

作者:231名经济学家


  致众议院议长与参议院议长:

  作为经济学家,我们要向国会表达:对于财政部长保尔森所提出的金融危机应对计划,我们深感忧虑。我们清楚地知道当前金融形势有多么困难,我们也认为需要采取果敢行动才能确保金融体系继续运转。然而,我们认为目前提出的计划存在三个致命的缺陷:

  1.不公平。该计划是在用纳税人的钱补贴投资者。那些为了利益铤而走险的投资者也必须承受损失才行。并非每一桩投资失败都会引发系统性风险。即使不救援那些自己决策失误的投资者和机构,政府也能确保金融业正常运行,向可信的借款者发放新的贷款。

  2.含糊不清。该计划拟议成立一个新机构,但是其使命和监督机制都不清楚。如果要纳税人从陷入困境的卖家手中购买缺乏流动性和透明度的资产,那么这些购买交易的条款、时机和操作方法都必须是事先彻底透明、事后得到妥善监督的。

  3.长期效应堪忧。假如该计划投入实施,其效应将会持续一代人的时间。尽管最近麻烦重重,美国的富有活力和创新精神的私人资本市场毕竟为这个国家创造了前所未有的繁荣。为了平息短期干扰而从根本上削弱那些市场是极其短视的做法。

  由于这些原因,我们呼吁国会不要匆忙决策,要进行适当的听证,仔细考虑什么才是正确的行动路径,为美国金融业和美国经济的未来作出明智的决定。

公开信英文版原文:

(This letter was sent to Congress on Wed Sept 24 2008 regarding the Treasury plan as outlined on that date. It does not reflect all signatories views on subesquent plans or modifications of the bill)

To the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the President pro tempore of the Senate:

As economists, we want to express to Congress our great concern for the plan proposed by Treasury Secretary Paulson to deal with the financial crisis. We are well aware of the difficulty of the current financial situation and we agree with the need for bold action to ensure that the financial system continues to function. We see three fatal pitfalls in the currently proposed plan:

1) Its fairness. The plan is a subsidy to investors at taxpayers’ expense. Investors who took risks to earn profits must also bear the losses. Not every business failure carries systemic risk. The government can ensure a well-functioning financial industry, able to make new loans to creditworthy borrowers, without bailing out particular investors and institutions whose choices proved unwise.

2) Its ambiguity. Neither the mission of the new agency nor its oversight are clear. If taxpayers are to buy illiquid and opaque assets from troubled sellers, the terms, occasions, and methods of such purchases must be crystal clear ahead of time and carefully monitored afterwards.

3) Its long-term effects. If the plan is enacted, its effects will be with us for a generation. For all their recent troubles, America's dynamic and innovative private capital markets have brought the nation unparalleled prosperity. Fundamentally weakening those markets in order to calm short-run disruptions is desperately short-sighted.

For these reasons we ask Congress not to rush, to hold appropriate hearings, and to carefully consider the right course of action, and to wisely determine the future of the financial industry and the U.S. economy for years to come.



Signed (updated at 9/27/2008 6:00PM CT)

Acemoglu Daron (Massachussets Institute of Technology)
Ackerberg Daniel (UCLA)
Adler Michael (Columbia University)
Admati Anat R. (Stanford University)
Ales Laurence (Carnegie Mellon University)
Alexis Marcus (Northwestern University)
Alvarez Fernando (University of Chicago)
Andersen Torben (Northwestern University)
Baliga Sandeep (Northwestern University)
Banerjee Abhijit V. (Massachussets Institute of Technology)
Barankay Iwan (University of Pennsylvania)
Barry Brian (University of Chicago)
Bartkus James R. (Xavier University of Louisiana)
Becker Charles M. (Duke University)
Becker Robert A. (Indiana University)
Beim David (Columbia University)
Berk Jonathan (Stanford University)
Bisin Alberto (New York University)
Bittlingmayer George (University of Kansas)
Blank Emily (Howard University)
Boldrin Michele (Washington University)
Bollinger, Christopher R. (University of Kentucky)
Bossi, Luca (University of Miami)
Brooks Taggert J. (University of Wisconsin)
Brynjolfsson Erik (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Buera Francisco J.(UCLA)
Cabral Luis (New York University)
Camp Mary Elizabeth (Indiana University)
Carmel Jonathan (University of Michigan)
Carroll Christopher (Johns Hopkins University)
Cassar Gavin (University of Pennsylvania)
Chaney Thomas (University of Chicago)
Chari Varadarajan V. (University of Minnesota)
Chauvin Keith W. (University of Kansas)
Chintagunta Pradeep K. (University of Chicago)
Christiano Lawrence J. (Northwestern University)
Clementi, Gian Luca (New York University)
Cochrane John (University of Chicago)
Coleman John (Duke University)
Constantinides George M. (University of Chicago)
Cooley, Thomas (New York University)
Crain Robert (UC Berkeley)
Culp Christopher (University of Chicago)
Da Zhi (University of Notre Dame)
Darity, William (Duke University)
Davis Morris (University of Wisconsin)
De Marzo Peter (Stanford University)
Dubé Jean-Pierre H. (University of Chicago)
Edlin Aaron (UC Berkeley)
Eichenbaum Martin (Northwestern University)
Ely Jeffrey (Northwestern University)
Eraslan Hülya K. K.(Johns Hopkins University)
Fair Ray (Yale University)
Faulhaber Gerald (University of Pennsylvania)
Feldmann Sven (University of Melbourne)
Fernandez, Raquel (New York University)
Fernandez-Villaverde Jesus (University of Pennsylvania)
Fohlin Caroline (Johns Hopkins University)
Fox Jeremy T. (University of Chicago)
Frank Murray Z.(University of Minnesota)
Frenzen Jonathan (University of Chicago)
Fuchs William (University of Chicago)
Fudenberg Drew (Harvard University)
Gabaix Xavier (New York University)
Gao Paul (Notre Dame University)
Garicano Luis (University of Chicago)
Gerakos Joseph J. (University of Chicago)
Gibbs Michael (University of Chicago)
Glomm Gerhard (Indiana University)
Goettler Ron (University of Chicago)
Goldin Claudia (Harvard University)
Gordon Robert J. (Northwestern University)
Greenstone Michael (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Gregory, Karl D. (Oakland University)
Guadalupe Maria (Columbia University)
Guerrieri Veronica (University of Chicago)
Hagerty Kathleen (Northwestern University)
Hamada Robert S. (University of Chicago)
Hansen Lars (University of Chicago)
Harris Milton (University of Chicago)
Hart Oliver (Harvard University)
Hazlett Thomas W. (George Mason University)
Heaton John (University of Chicago)
Heckman James (University of Chicago - Nobel Laureate)
Henderson David R. (Hoover Institution)
Henisz, Witold (University of Pennsylvania)
Hertzberg Andrew (Columbia University)
Hite Gailen (Columbia University)
Hitsch Günter J. (University of Chicago)
Hodrick Robert J. (Columbia University)
Hollifield Burton (Carnegie Mellon University)
Hopenhayn Hugo (UCLA)
Hurst Erik (University of Chicago)
Imrohoroglu Ayse (University of Southern California)
Isakson Hans (University of Northern Iowa)
Israel Ronen (London Business School)
Jaffee Dwight M. (UC Berkeley)
Jagannathan Ravi (Northwestern University)
Jenter Dirk (Stanford University)
Jones Charles M. (Columbia Business School)
Jovanovic Boyan (New York University)
Kaboski Joseph P. (Ohio State University)
Kahn Matthew (UCLA)
Kaplan Ethan (Stockholm University)
Karaivanov Alexander (Simon Fraser University)
Karolyi, Andrew (Ohio State University)
Kashyap Anil (University of Chicago)
Keim Donald B (University of Pennsylvania)
Ketkar Suhas L (Vanderbilt University)
Kiesling Lynne (Northwestern University)
Klenow Pete (Stanford University)
Koch Paul (University of Kansas)
Kocherlakota Narayana (University of Minnesota)
Koijen Ralph S.J. (University of Chicago)
Kondo Jiro (Northwestern University)
Korteweg Arthur (Stanford University)
Kortum Samuel (University of Chicago)
Krueger Dirk (University of Pennsylvania)
Ledesma Patricia (Northwestern University)
Lee Lung-fei (Ohio State University)
Leeper Eric M. (Indiana University)
Letson David (University of Miami)
Leuz Christian (University of Chicago)
Levine David I.(UC Berkeley)
Levine David K.(Washington University)
Levy David M. (George Mason University)
Linnainmaa Juhani (University of Chicago)
Lott John R. Jr. (University of Maryland)
Lucas Robert (University of Chicago - Nobel Laureate)
Ludvigson, Sydney C. (New York University)
Luttmer Erzo G.J. (University of Minnesota)
Manski Charles F. (Northwestern University)
Martin Ian (Stanford University)
Mayer Christopher (Columbia University)
Mazzeo Michael (Northwestern University)
McDonald Robert (Northwestern University)
Meadow Scott F. (University of Chicago)
Meeropol, Michael (Western New England College)
Mehra Rajnish (UC Santa Barbara)
Mian Atif (University of Chicago)
Middlebrook Art (University of Chicago)
Miguel Edward (UC Berkeley)
Miravete Eugenio J. (University of Texas at Austin)
Miron Jeffrey (Harvard University)
Moeller, Thomas (Texas Christian University)
Moretti Enrico (UC Berkeley)
Moriguchi Chiaki (Northwestern University)
Moro Andrea (Vanderbilt University)
Morse Adair (University of Chicago)
Mortensen Dale T. (Northwestern University)
Mortimer Julie Holland (Harvard University)
Moskowitz, Tobias J. (University of Chicago)
Munger Michael C. (Duke University)
Muralidharan Karthik (UC San Diego)
Nair Harikesh (Stanford University)
Nanda Dhananjay (University of Miami)
Nevo Aviv (Northwestern University)
Ohanian Lee (UCLA)
Pagliari Joseph (University of Chicago)
Papanikolaou Dimitris (Northwestern University)
Parker Jonathan (Northwestern University)
Paul Evans (Ohio State University)
Pearce David (New York University)
Pejovich Svetozar (Steve) (Texas A&M University)
Peltzman Sam (University of Chicago)
Perri Fabrizio (University of Minnesota)
Phelan Christopher (University of Minnesota)
Piazzesi Monika (Stanford University)
Pippenger, Michael K. (University of Alaska)
Piskorski Tomasz (Columbia University)
Platt Brennan C. (Brigham Young University)
Rampini Adriano (Duke University)
Ray, Debraj (New York University)
Reagan Patricia (Ohio State University)
Reich Michael (UC Berkeley)
Reuben Ernesto (Northwestern University)
Rizzo, Mario (New York University)
Roberts Michael (University of Pennsylvania)
Robinson David (Duke University)
Rogers Michele (Northwestern University)
Rotella Elyce (Indiana University)
Roussanov Nikolai (University of Pennsylvania)
Routledge Bryan R. (Carnegie Mellon University)
Ruud Paul (Vassar College)
Safford Sean (University of Chicago)
Samaniego Roberto (George Washington University)
Sandbu Martin E. (University of Pennsylvania)
Sapienza Paola (Northwestern University)
Savor Pavel (University of Pennsylvania)
Schaniel William C. (University of West Georgia)
Scharfstein David (Harvard University)
Seim Katja (University of Pennsylvania)
Seru Amit (University of Chicago)
Shang-Jin Wei (Columbia University)
Shimer Robert (University of Chicago)
Shore Stephen H. (Johns Hopkins University)
Siegel Ron (Northwestern University)
Smith David C. (University of Virginia)
Smith Vernon L.(Chapman University- Nobel Laureate)
Sorensen Morten (Columbia University)
Spatt Chester (Carnegie Mellon University)
Spear Stephen (Carnegie Mellon University)
Stevenson Betsey (University of Pennsylvania)
Stokey Nancy (University of Chicago)
Strahan Philip (Boston College)
Strebulaev Ilya (Stanford University)
Sufi Amir (University of Chicago)
Tabarrok Alex (George Mason University)
Taylor Alan M. (UC Davis)
Thompson Tim (Northwestern University)
Troske Kenneth (University of Kentucky)
Tschoegl Adrian E. (University of Pennsylvania)
Uhlig Harald (University of Chicago)
Ulrich, Maxim (Columbia University)
Van Buskirk Andrew (University of Chicago)
Vargas Hernan (University of Phoenix)
Veronesi Pietro (University of Chicago)
Vissing-Jorgensen Annette (Northwestern University)
Wacziarg Romain (UCLA)
Walker Douglas O. (Regent University)
Walker, Todd (Indiana University)
Weill Pierre-Olivier (UCLA)
Williamson Samuel H. (Miami University)
Witte Mark (Northwestern University)
Wolfenzon, Daniel (Columbia University)
Wolfers Justin (University of Pennsylvania)
Woutersen Tiemen (Johns Hopkins University)
Wu Yangru (Rutgers University)
Yue Vivian Z. (New York University)
Zingales Luigi (University of Chicago)
Zitzewitz Eric (Dartmouth College)

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