时间三周有余,空间万点附近

吾言吾所思,君闻君所愿。【声明】仅供交流之用,不作投资建议。
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牛经沧海

10/13/2008

盼反弹,迎反弹,迎来反弹怎么办 ?

上周大市崩盘,确实出乎沧海之预料。原以为一场金融危机而已,不料已重创美国经济,乃至世界经济。

如此看来,我们或处于二十年周期的下行区间,或处于七十年代滞涨阶段 ?

嘿,谁会关心久远的事!还是谈近的吧。

崩盘之前, DJIA 在 11500 附近徘徊将近三月,直至上周突然崩溃,一泻两千点有余。这种崩溃,完全脱离 FA ,多半会推倒重走的。

考虑到 50 天均线在 11000 , 25 天均线在 10500 ,道指应反弹至此区间。因大量套牢盘集中于 11500 ,料道指反弹难破此阻力线。

反弹高度既已画定,反弹的时限会有多久 ? 据以往经验,应在三周左右,直至季报结束。

图一 : 上周突然崩溃,多半会推倒重走



图二 : 上次的 2/3 反弹实证



图三 : 十年道指亦集结于万点附近



Disclaim: The author is not a Registered Investment Advisor or a Broker/Dealer. The author ’ s discussions do not serve as recommendations or suggestions for buying or selling any stocks or other instruments. The information contained in the blog is provided as is without warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, including, but not limited to, any implied warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose.

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