小鹤啊, 欢迎你的新贴. 难得各笔友们老戏称我为"杂教授",我这里就从一个教授的角度,简单谈谈"科学预测"和"主观预言"的差别.
在英语里,关于"预测"和"预言"有两个词:
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1.Forecasting: Estimating future events by casting forward from past data (quantitative and qualitative)and information.
2.Prediction: Estimating future event based on subjective judgments and considerations other than just past data.
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也就是说,"科学预测"指的是依据与已有的数据和信息对未来事件作出预测. 如一般的天气预报和地震预报. 而"主观预言指的是个人(或特定团体)依据自己掌握的的数据和信息或个人的主观信念而对未来事件作出预测.如在事前对世界杯赛冠军或美国橄榄球超级杯的预测. 但"科学预测"在"现代预测学"里必需满足以下几个条件:
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Principle of Forecasting:(预测原理)
1.The related past data are available,
2.The pattern (or patterns) can be recognized from past data, and
3. It is believed that this pattern will be continuing into the forseeable future (the future events to be forecasted).
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也就是说,任何预测只有满足下列三个条件才能称为:"科学预测:
1.有作预测之前的相关的数据和信息.
2.能够从预测之前的相关的数据和信息里找到相关规律.
3.能够证明所找到的规律在将要预测的未来仍然是有效的.