Mr. Wien (who is now chairman of Blackstone Group advisory services) has issued his economic, financial market and political surprises annually since 1986.
Mr. Wien believes these surprises, which the consensus would assign only a one-in-three chance of happening, have at least a 50% probability of occurring at some point during the year. In previous years, more than half of the elements of the list have proven correct.
Whether Wien is correct – he claims to be about half right generally – is beside the point. His list is thought-provoking whether you agree or not. I look forward to seeing his upcoming predictions for 2010.
The Surprises of 2010 of Byron Wien
1. The United States economy grows at a stronger than expected 5% real rate during the year and the unemployment level drops below 9%. Exports, inventory building and technology spending lead the way. Standard and Poor’s 500 operating earnings come in above $80
2. The Federal Reserve decides the economy is strong enough for them to move away from zero interest rate policy. In a series of successive hikes beginning in the second quarter the Federal funds rate reaches 2% by year-end
3. Heavy borrowing by the U.S. Treasury and some reluctance by foreign central banks to keep buying notes and bonds drives the yield on the 10-year Treasury above 5.5%. Banks loan more to corporations and individuals and pull away from the carry trade, thereby reducing demand for Treasuries. Obama says, “The suits are finally listening”
4. In a roller coaster year the Standard and Poor’s 500 rallies to 1300 in the first half and then runs out of steam and declines to 1000, ending where it started at 1115.10. Even though the economy is strong and earnings exceed expectations, rising interest rates and full valuations present a problem. Concern about longer term growth and obligations to reduce leverage at both the public and private level unsettle investors
5. Because it is significantly undervalued on a purchasing power parity basis, the dollar rallies against the yen and the euro. It exceeds 100 on the yen and the euro drops below $1.30 as the long slide of the greenback is interrupted. Longer term prospects remain uncertain
6. Japan stands out as the best performing major industrialized market in the world as its currency weakens and its exports improve. Investors focus on the attractive valuations of dozens of medium sized companies in a market selling at one quarter of its 1989 high. The Nikkei 225 rises above 12,000
7. Believing he must be a leader in climate control initiatives, President Obama endorses legislation favorable for nuclear power development. Arguing that going nuclear is essential for the environment, will create jobs and reduce costs, Congress passes bills providing loans and subsidies for new plants, the first since 1979. Coal accounts for about 50% of electrical power generation, and Obama wants to reduce that to 25% by 2020
8. The improvement in the U.S. economy energizes the Obama administration. The White House undergoes some reorganization and regains its momentum. In the November Congressional election the Democrats only lose 20 seats, much less than expected
9. When it finally passes, financial service legislation, like the health care bill, proves to be softer on the industry than originally feared. There is greater consumer protection, more transparency, tighter restriction of leverage and increased scrutiny of derivatives, but the regulatory changes for investment bankers and hedge funds are not onerous. Trading volume and merger activity increases; financial service stocks become exceptional performers in the U.S. market
10. Civil unrest in Iran reaches a crescendo. Ayatollah Khameini pushes out Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in favor of a more public relations adept leader. Economic improvement becomes the key issue and anti-Israel rhetoric subsides. Talks with the U.S. and Europe begin but the country remains a nuclear threat. Pakistan becomes the hotspot in the region because of the weak government there, anti-American sentiment, active terrorist groups and concerns about the security of the country’s nuclear arsenal
下面是Mr. Wien在08年底对09年做的预测，看了您就知道他确实还是很牛，很有远见，很准！
Byron Wien's predictions for 2009
1. The Standard and Poor’s 500 rises to 1200. In anticipation of a second-half recovery in the U.S. economy, the market improves from a base of investor despondency and hedge fund and mutual fund withdrawals. The mantra changes from “fortunes have been lost” to “fortunes can still be made.” Higher quality corporate bonds, leveraged loans and mortgages lead the way.
2. Gold rises to $1,200 per ounce. Heavy buying by Middle Eastern investors and a worldwide disenchantment with paper currencies drive the price of precious metals higher. In a time of uncertainty, investors want something they can count on as real.
3. The price of oil returns to $80 per barrel. Production disappointments and rising Asian demand create an unfavorable supply/demand balance. Other commodities also rise, some doubling from their 2008 lows. Natural gas goes to $9 per mcf.. (I guess Mr. Wien isn’t a commodity trader and likely fail to realize that NG market tends to be local due to high transportation costs)
4. Low Treasury interest rates coupled with huge borrowing by the Treasury send the dollar into a serious downward slide. Overseas investors become concerned that the currency printing presses will never stop. The yen goes to 75 and the euro to 1.65.
5. The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield climbs to 4%. Later in the year, as the economy shows signs of recovery, economists and investors shift their mood from concern about deflation to worries about inflation. A weak dollar, rapid growth in money supply and record-setting deficits (over $1 trillion) are behind the change.
6. China’s growth exceeds 7% and its stock market revives. World leaders credit China’s authoritarian government for its thoughtful stimulus policies and effective execution during a challenging period. The Chinese consumer begins to spend more and save less and this shift is behind the unexpected strength in the economy.
7. Falling tax revenues from the financial sector cause New York State to threaten bankruptcy and other states and municipalities follow. The Federal government is forced to step in and provide substantial assistance. The New York Post screams “When will the bailouts stop?”
8. Housing starts reach bottom ahead of schedule in the fall, and house prices stabilize after dropping 15% from year-end 2008 levels. The Obama stimulus program proves effective and a slow growth recovery begins before year-end. Third and fourth quarter real gross domestic product numbers are positive.
9. The savings rate in the United States fails to improve beyond 3%, as most economists expect. The concept of thrift seems to have vanished from American culture. Peak job insecurity and negative growth drive increased savings early in the year, but spending resumes as the economic growth turns positive in the second half, making Christmas 2009 the best ever.
10. Citing concerns about Iraq’s fragile democratically elected government and the danger of a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, Barack Obama slows his plan for troop withdrawal in the former and meaningfully increases U.S. military presence in the latter. In a hawkish speech he states that the threat of terrorism forces the United States to maintain a strong military force in this strategic area.
由于我是第一次做预测，水平肯定很差，所以只能是瞎蒙，就叫“蒙想”吧！
杜景涛2010年十大“蒙想”
1， 上证综合指数的高点没有触及4000点高点；
2， 美国经济超出预期强劲增长；
3， 油价重上100美圆每桶；
4， 美圆指数重上80；
5， 亚太市场表现最好的市场是越南股市；
6， 中国的一线城市房价滞涨或微跌；
7， 中国A股市场全年表现最好的板块是进出口相关股票；
8， A股中有10-20%的公募，私募，专户以及券商自营出现亏损及付收益；
9， 中国的政治化改革以及民主化进程在个别地区取得突破性进展；
10，最后一个想了半天也没想出来，欢迎大家拍砖……
最后还是称这个机会给出个人股票组合（自己模拟组合或给客户的操作组合中并不全部包括下列股票，权重也并非全部均等；个别股票不在中金公司的股票池中；选股期限以中线即3-6个月为大致期间，选股依据结合基本面，技术面，总市值，流通市值，机构持仓结构等综合考虑；调出组合的股票的最主要根据是该股的上升趋势不明朗或已经开始进入下降通道）：红色股票为新加入的品种，有些股票已经调整出局：
长电科技，中国联通，瑞贝卡，鲁泰A，广电运通，合加资源，中集集团，中海油服（海油工程），晨鸣纸业，天威视讯，超声电子，山西汾酒，华夏银行，西山煤电，锡业股份，江铜权证，中化国际，大族激光，航天信息，中海集运（中海发展，中国远洋，中远航运），深赤湾A（日照港，上港集团），澄星股份，水晶光电，宜华木业，太钢不锈，中国石油。
