(2010-12-22)
在超越了2007年的巅峰之后，本地私人共管公寓的转售市场在第四季碰到了一道阻力墙，其价格多呈胶着状态。然而在同期，有地住宅的转售价却激增。 戴德梁行（DTZ）昨天发表的第四季转售私宅价格数据显示，所有私宅领域的价格涨幅在本季持平。 其中，在过去两季领导价格涨势的99年地契郊区私人公寓，转售价在第四季维持上一季的水平不变，报每平方英尺660元。 而第9、第10和第11邮区的黄金地段私宅，尺价较上一季仅稍微上涨了0.4％，达1520元。 这两个私宅领域的平均价格水平，都超越了2007年的巅峰，在今年全年共上涨了约8％。 戴德梁行指出，本地郊区和黄金地段的私宅转售价，在过去七个季度以来，分别上涨了18％和36％，而目前碰到一道阻力墙。 这是由于买家在政府8月底推出降温措施后变得更为谨慎、会作比较和选择，偏好地点佳如靠近地铁站、学校或金融区的项目。 另一方面，高档豪华公寓的转售价在第四季也持平，每平方英尺报2630元，比2007年第四季创记录的每平方英尺2800元，低了6％。 戴德梁行认为，尽管高档豪华公寓市场淡静，但仍然有吸引不少中国和印度买家，以及越来越多的基金的兴趣。 相较于私人公寓转售价格的纹风不动，有地住宅转售价的走势则截然不同。 戴德梁行指出，永久地契有地住宅的转售价，在前两个季度出现涨幅放缓的现象后，在第四季显著上扬。从第三季的2％季比涨幅，增加到第四季的5.1％涨幅，报1693元。黄金地段以外则出现4.3％季比涨幅，尺价993元，比前一季的1.7％季比涨幅来的高。 数据显示，本地永久地契有地住宅的转售价，今年全年共上涨16％，自2009年第二季开始上涨至今，则共涨了37％。 戴德梁行研究部主管蔡楚芬认为，有限的供应，使永久地契有地住宅尤其是黄金地段的房地产，成为市场人士眼中宝贵的资产。 蔡楚芬说：“目前，有地住宅占了楼市中所有私宅供应（包括执行共管公寓）的26％，未来供应相当有限。另一方面，政府售地计划和集体出售活动，却正以更快的速度，把更多非有地住宅单位注入市场。” |
分析员多认为 明年私宅成交量将稍减
吴慧敏 (2010-12-21)
2010年又是一个房地产大旺年，不但转售市场旺热，房地产发展商也大丰收，所卖出的新私宅单位创下历史新高。不过，整个新加坡楼市全年估计只有3万6000至3万8000个私宅单位成交，这虽然超越2009年的3万3738个单位，但仍落后于2007年的4万零654个单位纪录。 展望2011年，大多数房地产分析员认为，新加坡虽然有望吸引到海外热钱，不过考虑到政府可能再次出手冷却楼市，而且大众化私宅领域又面对供应过剩问题，因此明年的成交量可能稍微减少。 根据市区重建局的数据，今年首三季一共有2万9004个私宅单位成交。其中1万2051个是房地产发展商卖出的新单位，另外1万6953个单位则是转售单位。在转售单位中，有2579个是未完工就被屋主卖出去的“楼花”。 不过，由于最新出炉的市建局显示，发展商在今年10月和11月又卖出将近3000个新私宅单位，而且房地产交易网上又已“捕抓”到10月1日知11月30日有大约2500个二手单位成交，因此高力国际研究部主管郑惠匀估计，今年全年的整体私宅成交量可能介于3万6000至3万7000个。 展望2011年，她预测成交量将减少到3万至3万2000个单位，不过这仍属于相当活跃的水平。“虽然政府可能推出更多降温措施，但由于西方可能涌入更多热钱，而且大中国地区实施的楼市措施或许会将一些需求转移过来，再加上今年的政府售地计划卖出了许多地皮，赶着在明年推出，以及良好的经济展望和低利率环境，将为私宅市场提供支持力量，让交易保持活跃。2011年的需求预料将维持在3万至3万2000个单位水平。” 世邦魏理仕执行董事李晓和也相信，今年全年发展商将卖出3万5300至3万6000个新私宅单位。如果包括执行共管公寓，那么全年的成交量估计约3万6450至3万6550个单位。这包括1万5500至1万6000个由发展商卖出的新私宅单位、1150至1250个EC单位、1万9800至2万个二手单位。展望明年，他认为发展商不可能再突破今年的最高水平，明年卖出的新私宅单位估计将减少至1万1000至1万3000个单位。 戴德梁行的蔡楚芬也估计，发展商能在今年卖出1万6000至1万6500个新私宅单位，明年则会减少至9000至1万2000个单位。欣乐(SLP)国际执行董事麦俊荣预测，今年的新单位需求量在1万5000个单位以上，但明年会减少到1万3000至1万4000个单位。仲量联行研究部主管蔡炎亮博士则表示，今年的新私宅需求约1万5000至1万6000个单位，但没有预测明年的需求。 国际产业顾问总裁 看法最乐观 国际产业顾问(IPA)总裁邱瑞荣是所有分析员中最乐观的。他认为2010年全年的总私宅成交量可能高达3万8000个单位，不过2011年可能减少10％至15％，达3万3000个单位。他也猜测一些投资者可能将目光转向价格较廉宜的海外房地产投资地点，例如伦敦。 唯一看好2011年成交量有望再攀高峰的，是第一太平戴维斯私宅部执行董事洪映慧。她认为，除非不可预见的因素，否则2011年的新私宅成交量应该有望在政府大量供地的刺激下，超越2010年的水平，达到1万7000至1万8000个单位。 |
市场人士:高档公寓升大众化跌 明年私宅价格两极化?
(2010-12-19)
今年私宅市场的表现超越市场人士的预测，全年很可能上涨15％至17％。展望2011年，市场人士的意见不尽相同，乐观的看好楼价还会上涨10％至20％，悲观的认为私宅价格只会微升不超过5％。不过，较多人看好高档公寓的上涨趋势。 不过，他们都不约而同地对几个发展表示关注，一是西方“热钱”将如何影响本地楼市，二是政府是否会在未来几个月再次出手为楼市降温，三是房贷利率是否会上调，四是政府是否会更改移民政策？ 市区重建局的数字显示，今年截至第三季，本地私宅价格已经上升了14.4％。其中，有地住宅价格飙涨了24％，公寓价格攀升了12％。在公寓方面，代表高档公寓的核心中央区，即CCR价格上涨了11.7％，中档公寓上涨了15.5％，大众化公寓上涨了12.6％。 官方完整的2010年私宅价格数据，将在明年1月底才公布。不过，日前受访的几个房地产分析员都认为，第四季的楼价变动不大，估计只攀爬多一两个百分点，因此2010年全年的私宅价格涨幅应该在15％至17％之间。 高力国际（Colliers）研究与咨询部主管郑惠匀说：“由于政府在第四季实施了降温措施，再加上一些房子，特别是大众化领域开始出现价格阻力，第四季的私宅价格上涨预料会维持在0％至2％之间。”
这也就是说，今年全年的私宅价格很可能上涨15％至17％。其中，高档公寓价格可能上涨12％至14％，中档公寓价格可能上涨16％至18％，大众化公寓价格可能上涨13％。 郑惠匀是少数在一年前就作出相当准确预测的房地产分析员。本报在去年这个时候做了类似的调查，当时，大多数受访的房地产分析员都看好2010的楼市将上涨，不过幅度不超过12％，只有郑惠匀预测2010年的楼价将上涨12％至15％。 国外“热钱”将涌到中高档私宅或再升10％ 展望明年，郑惠匀预测，2011年的整体私宅价格指数可能再涨5％至8％。 她认为，西方“热钱”和大中国地区的楼市降温措施，可能会将钱“吸”到新加坡来，为本地的中高档私宅价格提供支撑力量，带动这两个领域 的楼价再升5％至10％。不过，大众化私宅价格则会持平，这是考虑到政府在今年卖出了大量的大众化私宅地皮，而且又在8月30日实施了降温措施，还一再强 调会在有必要时再次出手。 第一太平戴维斯（Savills）私宅部执行董事洪映慧也提到外国买家的因素，不过却预测明年全年的私宅价格将横摆。明年上半年的私宅价格将在起落2％至5％的窄幅内波动，进入下半年后才回升2％至5％。 她说，全球多个城市的房地产投资风险，已经因为当地政府收紧房地产投资条例，以及货币的巨大波动而大增，因此，新加坡可能在2011年 得到更多外国买家的青睐。再加上全球经济复苏，以及两座IR带动的乐观情绪，应该能够为新加坡的私宅市场，特别是高档私宅领域提供支撑力量。 郑惠匀看好的热点地区 ·市区核心（Downtown Core）继续在IR和滨海湾金融商业区的带动下，受到欢迎。 ·丹戎巴葛区将被政府“改头换面”，火车站的迁移也会把一大块重要地皮空出来，以便日后展开重建计划，为这个靠近滨海湾和娱乐区的地带增添更多活力。 ·裕廊商业区和裕廊湖区还有周边地区，包括武吉班让和山景道一带，都会受益于拟议中的市区武吉知马地铁线。 分析员看法不同 乐观者：再涨10％ 悲观者：不超5％ 分析员对于明年的楼价走势有不同的看法，相信关键在于他们对上述四个国内外因素的发展作出了不同的推测。 德意志摩根建富证券（DMG & Partners Securities）分析师李开安相当关注大众化私宅的供应问题，再加上他认为政府很可能推出另一轮房地产降温措施，所以估计明年的大众化私宅价格会下跌10％，不过高档公寓价格却有望上升10％。 资深房地产顾问欣乐（SLP）国际执行董事麦俊荣却认为，政府的降温措施对楼市并没有太深远的影响，往往只是稍微收敛，随后又恢复正常。因此，他估计明年私宅价格还会上涨10％至20％，而且中高档公寓价格会超越大众化私宅价格的涨幅。 至于戴德梁行（DTZ）研究部主管蔡楚芬、世邦魏理仕（CB Richard Ellis）执行董事李晓和，以及国际产业顾问（International Property Advisor，简称IPA）总裁邱瑞荣则相信，明年的私宅价格涨幅不超过5％。
买家须留意利息上调可能性 蔡楚芬认为，明年的私宅需求将随着经济放慢增长而减少，导致价格出现0％至5％的增长。她提醒买家密切留意利息上调的可能性，以免日后 无法应付更多的分期付款额；一旦市场过热，政府也可能再次出手降温。“买家也应该留意欧美经济，因为它们的增长将影响全世界，包括新加坡。” 李晓和说，明年的经济预计将增长4％至6％，假设土地价格和供应量维持稳定，私宅价格可能微升3％至5％。 邱瑞荣则认为，明年整体私宅价格将微涨2％至3％。这是因为市场虽然充斥不少有利因素，包括充沛的流动资金和超低位的利率环境，扶持需求保持强劲，不过供应量却居高不下，所以价格估计没有太大的上涨空间。 他还认为，明年仍然是有地住宅的天下，估计可上涨12％至15％。高档公寓价格可能下跌2％至3％；中档公寓价格持平；大众化公寓价格上涨3％至5％。 仲量联行（Jones Lang LaSalle）研究部主管蔡炎亮也认为，明年的私宅市场将出现两极发展——高档私宅价格预料可再攀升4％至6％，但是中档和大众化私宅价格则会维持稳定。 邱瑞荣的买屋贴士 如果房子买来自住，可以考虑购买大约10年屋龄的，因为这类房子的状况还不错，价格却往往比邻近新推出的项目便宜超过20％。 那些不介意花时间和金钱来装修的，甚至可以考虑屋龄超过18年的房子，也就是那些在亚洲金融危机和1994至1997年屋价飙涨之前的 房子。这些房子如果还是“原装”的，需要多花一点钱和功夫来装修，不过价格却比附近新项目便宜30％。如果预算许可，还可以选择靠近乌节路但屋龄较大的房 子。 如果房子是买来投资的，那就必须找有好租户和租约的房子。可以尝试找一找屋龄在10年以下，租金收益率超过4％的99年地契公寓，又或者是租金收益率超过3.5％的永久地契公寓。 明年仍是有地住宅天下 明年仍然会是有地住宅的天下。目前，全岛有地住宅单位不超过7万个（包括优质洋房和99年地契旧排屋），提升者的需求估计将带动价格再涨12％至15％。 最值得购买的有地住宅，应该是那些完工大约5至10年的房子。买很旧的房子来重建不是很划算，因为老房子业主通常没多少房贷，因此完全有实力来叫高价。 《联合早报》 |
Regentville hits $684 psf
December 19, 2010
Homebuyers looking for condominiums with good amenities, accessibility and proximity to popular schools and priced under $800,000 are finding them at Regentville, on Hougang Street 92. The 580-unit 99- year leasehold development also fronts the junction of Hougang Avenue 9 and Yio Chu Kang Road.
Developed by Far East Organization, Regentville comprises five 15-storey towers of two-bedroom units sized 980 to 1,163 sq ft and three-bedroom units sized 1,076 to 2,077 sq ft. Completed in 1999, it was launched just months before the start of the Asian financial crisis at $500 to $600 psf.
The lowest price set there was in 2003, when a 15th-floor, 1,744 sq ft unit changed hands in the resale market for $495,000 ($284 psf). The same unit was sold in early 2007 for $287 psf, or $500,000. Since August this year, prices have been hitting $600 psf, with a historical high of $695 psf achieved in September, when a 12th-floor, 980 sq ft unit was sold for $681,000.
Regentville’s attraction is the possibility of buying a unit within a project that’s just over 10 years old for under $800,000. This probably makes Regentville “one of the most affordable in the Serangoon and Hougang areas”, notes property agent Ruth Ho, a senior associate director at C&H Group.
In the Nov 16 to 23 period, three units changed hands in the secondary market at $626 to $684 psf. On Nov 22, a first-floor, 1,163 sq ft unit was sold for $728,000 ($626 psf), representing a 35.2% gain for the seller, who bought it from the developer for $538,000 ($463 psf) in February 1998 amid the Asian financial crisis.
On the 10th floor of another block, a seller made a 17% gain when he sold his 980 sq ft unit for $670,000 ($684 psf) on Nov 19. He bought the unit for $571,857 ($584 psf) from the developer during its launch in June 1997.
Meanwhile, a 1,152 sq ft unit on the 11th floor changed hands for the third time for $746,000 ($648 psf). The seller bought the unit for $588,000 ($511 psf) on the resale market in July 2007. Prior to that, the unit was transacted at $580,000 ($504 psf) in early 2002. The first owner bought the unit for $721,580 ($627 psf) from the developer in September 1997.
In Hougang, near Upper Serangoon Road, is another 99-year leasehold development — the 394-unit Evergreen Park, on Hougang Avenue 7. Completed in 1999 around the same time as Regentville, Evergreen Park features three- and four-bedroom apartments sized 1,012 to 1,367 sq ft.
There were at least four transactions at Evergreen Park in November, according to caveats lodged with URA. Most recently, on Nov 22, a 13th-floor, 1,367 sq ft apartment changed hands at $835,000 ($611 psf). The month also saw the highest price set for the project, when a 1,076 sq ft apartment was sold for $780,000 ($725 psf), according to a Nov 15 caveat. The other two sales, at $710,000, were for a 1,023 sq ft unit ($694 psf) and a 1,044 sq ft unit ($680 psf).
Also located along Hougang Avenue 7 is the 496- unit executive condo The Florida, which was completed in 2000 and can now be traded like a regular 99-year leasehold private condo. The City Developments project was launched during the Asian financial crisis, in June 1998, and yet was completely sold out within a few days at $400 to $450 psf.
In the resale market, prices have reached $586 to $656 psf in the last two months. In October, a 10thfloor, 1,227 sq ft unit changed hands for $805,000 ($656 psf), the highest price to date. In the most recent transaction in November, a 14th-floor, 1,292 sq ft unit was sold for $830,000 ($643 psf).
Next door to The Florida is the 716-unit Rio Vista condo, along Upper Serangoon Road, which was completed in 2004. According to the most recent URA caveats, units there traded at $682 to $711 psf in October. Most recently, a 2,465 sq ft, 17th-floor apartment changed hands for $1.68 million ($682 psf) in October. The highest price set at Rio Vista was $890,000 ($719 psf) in June for a 1,238 sq ft, 15th-floor unit. The second highest was $717 psf, or $895,000, for an eighth-floor, 1,249 sq ft unit.
The suburban neighbourhoods of Ang Mo Kio, Buangkok, Hougang, Upper Serangoon and Yio Chu Kang Road are seeing the greatest number of new developments, comprising executive and private condos, as more government land sites are released for sale. There’s also increased connectivity, with more MRT stations opening up, and amenities like shopping and eateries.
For instance, Regentville is located next to Central Place and Hougang Point shopping mall. Within a 10-minute drive is nex mall, which is considered Singapore’s largest suburban shopping mall and is connected underground to the Serangoon Central MRT station and interchange, and integrated with the bus interchange.
Regentville is also within 1km of a top primary school — Rosyth Primary School — while a feeder bus provides a link to the Serangoon Central, Hougang and Kovan MRT stations. “Buyers continue to like Regentville due to its easy accessibility to the major expressways, such as the Central Expressway, Seletar Expressway and Tampines Expressway,” says Ho.
The latest monthly asking rents at Regentville are $2,500 to $2,800 for two-bedroom units and up to $3,200 for three-bedroom apartments, estimates Ho. This offers rental yields of 4.5% to 5.3%.
Source : The Edge – 12 Dec 2010
Prime freehold landed home prices up 5.1% in Q4
Prices of freehold landed housing in Singapore’s prime districts have surged 5.1 per cent in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, compared to growth of 2 per cent in the third quarter.
The average price of landed homes in the prime districts in the fourth quarter stands at $1,693 psf, property consultant DTZ said yesterday. Outside the prime districts, landed prices are up by 4.3 per cent to $993 psf, compared to the 1.7 per cent increase a quarter ago, it said.
Overall, DTZ says this represents an increase of about 16 per cent for landed properties for the whole of this year.
Ms Chua Chor Hoon, head of DTZ South East Asia Research, noted that the limited supply of landed properties, accounting for about 26 per cent of total private housing stock, made them a prized asset.
In contrast, the supply of non-landed units, such as condominiums, is injected at a faster pace via the government land sales programme and collective sales, she said.
The resale price of leasehold condominiums in the suburban areas has held firm at $660 psf this quarter, while that of condominiums in the prime districts grew marginally by 0.4 per cent to $1,520 psf. The prices of these two non-landed segments have surpassed their previous peaks in 2007, indicating price increases are hitting a resistance wall, DTZ said.
Buyers have also exercised greater prudence following the government’s cooling measures implemented this year, it added.
Source : Today – 22 Dec 2010
More price upside for luxury homes: Analysts
More top-end condominiums in the core central region (CCR) have been changing hands – at higher prices – with each passing month. Yet, deals above $4,000 psf are still rare. Analysts say that this shows the luxury segment still has room for capital appreciation.
November saw only one such transaction – a Scotts Square unit which sold for $4,358 psf, according to the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA). In October, a Boulevard Vue unit sold for $4,800 psf.
Back in 2007, a unit at Orchard Residences went for as high as $5,094 psf, while one at the Marque on Paterson Hill fetched $5,262 psf. In all, 13 units sold at higher than $4,000 psf in the second half of 2007. So far, in the second half of this year, there have been only five such sales.
Investors are still not paying top dollar for extra exclusivity – a sign that they have been cautious on luxury homes in the current property cycle. Prices of mass-market homes, meanwhile, have already surpassed their 2007 peaks.
Even then, analysts say it’s only a matter of time before prices of luxury properties catch up with – and exceed – their 2007 peak.
“There’s room to grow a further 5 to 8 per cent to reach 2007 price levels,” said Dr Chua Yang Liang, head of research, South-east Asia at Jones Lang LaSalle.
Sales of new luxury homes have also been volatile, according to the URA’s data. Sales in the CCR in November fell to 213 from 335 units in October. In September, following the government’s Aug 30 measures to cool the property market, CCR sales were as low as 84 units.
But investors need not worry about the erratic sales volumes, analysts say.
“Luxury property sales tend to see some volatility because there are fewer luxury property developments compared with mass market ones,” said Dr Chua. “High-end property developers launch their projects more sporadically.”
With China clamping down hard on the property market in its tier-one cities, ultra-rich investors are likely to move capital to Singapore, analysts say.
“High-end residential properties in Singapore, which traditionally enjoy significant foreign home buying interest, may benefit as a number of investors from across the world are looking at diversifying their investments geographically,” said Mr Ong Kah Seng, senior manager of research at Cushman & Wakefield.
Credit Suisse says investors should exit the residential real-estate market in China and move their money to the residential and commercial property markets in Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan.
The bank expects residential property prices in Singapore to increase 5 per cent in each of the next two years, on top of an estimated 15 per cent gain this year.
Still, analysts warn that the policy risk going into next year remains high for all types of properties, including luxury units that are typically unscathed by measures that seek to curb leveraged home-buying.
They said harsher cooling measures may be introduced – such as a tax on profits from property sales after URA data this week showed that 1,909 private residential units were sold last month,a surprising 80 per cent jump from October’s 1,058 units.
Source : Today – 17 Dec 2010
