中国能否近期在科技上赶超美国? 看看2009年中美专利获得数。 v2

According to data released from US patent and trademark office (USPTO), the number of patent awards in 2009 in the top five countries are (note: the first inventor’s country of residence listed in a patent application serves as the country’s patent award. For example, the first inventor may be a Chinese citizen, but his/her residence is in US, so this patent granted is classified as a US patent, although the first inventor is a Chinese citizen):

USA: 82,382

Japan: 35,501

Germany: 9,000

South Korea: 8762

China: 1,655

The number of patent awards and applications directly reflect the high tech investment from that country, and are good indications of new technology development, new manufacturing processes, new drugs/new drug targets, and newly discovered genes for diagnostics and gene therapy (a cloned gene or reactivated gene in vivo is patentable), newly engineered biological systems (like new synthetic bacterium constructed by genetic engineering for green technology) or new enzymes like tet1 classe of enzymes for epigenetic regulations, or master transcription factors that can reprogram cell fate, DNA methylation/demethylation, iP stem cells for tissue engineering, or new super fast DNA sequencing technology that can sequence a human genome at the cost of $1000, or newly engineered enzymes for DNA labeling and detection.

Another good indication from the number of patent awards or application is the usefulness of the new discovery (inventions). If the new discovery deems trivial and easy to conceive and being put into practice, and easily copied from prior art (previous published work or procedure), then it is very difficult to convince USPTO to reward a patent. Therefore, there should be a financial reward for filing and getting the patent. Patent application cost and maintenance cost anywhere from $10,000 to $200,000 in the life span of the patent. So if the projected financial reward is low, inventors, companies, and universities are less likely to file patent applications. In summary, the number of patent applications and patent awards should also reflect the future profitability of the new discovery.

The number of published papers from China is huge and only second to US, but the usefulness of these works are cast in doubt due the lack of international patent applications (or owing to lack of patent application fees and patent lawyers, which is less likely). So Let’s get back to the point of this essay: Can Chinese catch up with US in technology in a few years? My guess is not so fast. May be 20 to 30 years. Unless Chinese can attract top science and technology talents from US, Japan, and Europe, not just recruit some freshly minted Ph.D or post-docs.  (Please cite the author and source of this article. Thanks!)