23-08-2012：高档私宅市场回顾

第一太平戴维斯：更多价廉高档私宅将推出 李敏雯　(2012-08-23) 　第一太平戴维斯（Savills）最新研究报告指出，经历了10％至30％的调整后，新加坡豪宅市场似乎已经见底，但随着更多新私宅项目完工，未来高档私宅市场还有大量价廉物美的房产可寻。 　　昨天出炉的研究报告说，投资者过去数个月就进场扫货，发展商也全力出击，今年至今已经推出八个主要豪宅项目，认购率相对稳健。 　　报告指出，自政府在去年12月推出额外买方印花税（简称ABSD）之后，新加坡高档私宅的销售一度下跌至三年来的低点，在今年第一季度仅为453个单位。不过随着高档私宅与中档和大众化私宅价格的收窄，高档私宅的买气重现。 　　今年次季，各个新高档私宅领域都出现回弹。新私宅销售环比上扬了246％，今年第二季达到235个单位，未完工的楼花销售也增加到94个，环比涨幅达34％。 今年7月份，新高档私宅领域创下2011年4月以来的最佳销量，主要由V on Shenton带动。（档案照片） 　　即使是转售高档私宅，今年第二季度也表现优异，在屋主叫价变得更实际之后，转售私宅成交量上扬了86％，为585个单位。事实上，转售私宅在高档私宅领域的比重也较过去两年显著提高，从2010年的39％，上扬到去年的50％，而今年上半年更达到66％。 　　另一方面，市场对于超级豪华私宅的胃口也出现改善。第一太平戴维斯研究与咨询部副董事张敏璋说，平均每平方英尺价格超过3000元的私宅需求，从去年第三季的11个单位，上扬到今年第二季的31个。 　　其中6月份的两宗交易来自诗阁广场（Scotts Square），分别以每平方英尺4566元和4803元成交。另外一个位于卓锦豪庭（Orchard Residences）52楼、1808平方英尺的单位以每平方英尺4399元成交，Boulevard Vue也有两个单位分别以每平方英尺4326元和3934元卖出。 　　张敏璋指出，一些新登场的项目如安哥烈园（Angullia Park）21号，在过去三个月吸引到五宗交易，尺价介于每平方英尺3950元至4338元。 高档项目“1919”推出首个月几乎售罄 　　发展商见市场情绪好转，也让手上的高档私宅新项目陆续登场。从今年初开始，就有八个主要高档私宅项目登场，总共为市场注入1200个新单位。 　　其中最大的项目要属拥有510个单位、位于中央商业区的V on Shenton，其他登场的项目还有拥有180个单位的26 Newton、132个单位的EON Shenton等。 　　报告指出，这些项目的认购率稳健，比如75个单位的高档项目“1919”在推出的首个月就几乎售罄，而EON Shenton则在首推两个月内获得了73％的认购率。这可能是因为每平方英尺1400元至2800元的价格较吸引人。 　　此外已登场的高档私宅也展开更积极的行销活动。这包括36个单位的Newton Imperial、34个单位的富怡首府（Ferrell Residences）、102个单位的Paterson Suites等。 　　这些项目的价格也格外吸引人。比如Paterson Suites有19个单位今年是以平均每平方英尺2619元买下的，这相等于在去年价格上的10％折扣，当时价位每平方英尺2915元，也比2007年高峰期下跌了15％。 黄金地段未售出单位达1万2855个 　　另外乌节景园（Orchard View）也有12个单位是以平均每平方英尺2604元成交，这要比2010年高峰期的价位低了21％。 　　瑞吉居（St Regis Residences）今年上半年的表现最差，成交价格从高峰期已经跌了28％，平均为每平方英尺2228元。 　　张敏璋说，过去一年，已经有约4000个新高档私宅单位竣工，这相等于高档非有地私宅供应总量的7％。其中16％或约600个私宅单位未被售出。这意味着黄金地段的未售出单位达到1万2855个，其中731个是已竣工单位，而1万2124个属于未完工单位，但有半数属于可以被推出市场的单位。 　　报告指出，非有地高档私宅的价格已经在今年第一季环比下滑5％至每平方英尺2374元，并在第二季再滑落至每平方英尺2230元。 未来数月 价格仍可能下调 　　展望未来，张敏璋认为，由于目前未售出高档私宅数目居多以及额外买方印花税的影响，未来数个月的价格仍然可能出现下调，这可能令高档私宅市场的买气持续。 　　张敏璋也指出，由于发展商必须在完工后的两年期限内清完所有的剩余单位，否则每延长一年，将面对相等于地价8％、16％和24％的罚款额（根据未售出单位按比例缴交延长款项），所以当这些高档项目接近两年销售期限，一些没有持守能力的发展商将给予更高的折扣以清货，到时趁低吸购的投资者更会倾巢而出。 　　至于有持守能力的发展商可能选择延长销售期限，或支付10％的额外买方印花税，将剩余单位注入投资公司以出租，并等待价格出现回弹。

《联合早报》 Luxury-home prices may have peaked By Reico Wong， Thursday, Aug 23, 2012，my paper SINGAPORE - The high-end property market in Singapore may have reached a peak, with prices of luxury homes - in districts one, two, four, nine, 10 and 11, and priced around $2,000 per sq ft - down by about 5 per cent since the start of the year, due to the euro- zone debt crisis and a surge in home completions here. Real-estate firm Savills Singapore said current luxury-home prices have also fallen between 10 and 30 per cent from their peak during the 2007 property boom. Savills said yesterday that bargain hunters hoping to snag a good buy may find some ripe pickings, with property launches back in full swing after a lull last year and the increased number of unsold units likely to exert downward pressure on prices. Mr Alan Chong, head of research at Savills, told my paper: "With supply chasing demand, property prices for luxury homes could see a drop of another 5 per cent within the next six months, although developers of new project launches will have more pricing power compared to those of...units already launched, or existing ones in the market which are being flipped." Eight major projects, yielding about 1,200 new units, have been launched since the start of the year. These include the 510-unit luxury apart- ment V on Shenton, located in the Central Business District; the 180-unit freehold high-rise 26 Newton; and the 132-unit mixed development Eon Shenton. While the take-up rate for some of these projects was relatively healthy, the increase in supply - amid a market already hit by lacklustre demand - means increased competition among newly completed luxury developments, many of which still have a sizeable amount of units unsold, according to Savills. The total number of unsold luxury homes in prime districts stands at about 12,855 units. Of this, 12,124 units have yet to be completed, but half of them are ready to be launched. At least another seven major projects are slated to be launched in the next six months. One factor that buyers should bear in mind is the two-year post-completion deadline for developments: Developers would have to pay an additional charge - a percentage of their land price - if they were to extend their sale period beyond those two years, pro-rated according to the number of units they are left with. This could motivate developers, especially those with shallow pockets, to mark down prices of the remaining units. "Together with a looming pipeline supply of 19,056 units to be completed in the next few years, any price cuts could trigger a resumption in demand, possibly resulting in sales hitting 1,000 units per quarter until the end of the year," said Savills. [e-mail] Get my paper for more stories.