许多中国专家们认为“QE=印钞” -- 大错特错!
QE指美联储花钱买美联邦政府(即国库)的国债。
在买的瞬间,国库确实多了所卖美元,使世界美元总量瞬间增加所买量。
但国债到期时,国库向美联储还本付息。所增之量,全部复原且有利息。
利息则靠征税而来。如今总税的1/4强是国债利息。这就是国债设上限的主要原因。
如上所述正是美元从2008以来大体维持2%低通涨的主要原因,也是QE3后人民币未现升势的主要原因(即美元并未真放水)。
事实上,人民币一直在大量放水。
再则,QE与印钞完全无关。
因为印钞不能增美元,增美元不必印钞。所印之钞全从账上扣除。
纸币只是美元总量的零头。
美元总量是国库数据库中的数字。
据悉,该数字已经有年头没额外增加了。
该数字的稳定性完全源于信誉。
此外,该数字与美联储的,IMF的,或中国的 Mn无关。
顺便提一下,美国债16万亿,远不象许多中国专家们认为的坏于希腊。希腊纯债相当于GDP,而美纯债只是GDP的零头,因为美联邦政府也是15万亿的债主,即赤字仅1万亿。
这15万亿中大头是学生贷款及房贷。
不太明白美国政府是15万亿的债主. 请看下面:
Public Debt. The Bureau has broken out the debt into two main categories: Intragovernmental Holdings ($4.7 trillion) and Debt Held by the Public ($10.7 trillion).
Social Security (Social Security Trust Fund and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Fund) – $2.4 trillion
Office of Personnel Management (Federal Employees Retirement, Life Insurance, Hospital Insurance Trust Funds, including Postal Service Fund) – $1.09 trillion
Dept. of Health and Human Services (Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Fund) – $77.3 billion
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation – $38.3 billion
Department of Transportation (Highway Trust Fund) – $23.8 billion
Department of the Treasury (Exchange Stabilization Fund) – $22.9 billion
Department of Labor (Unemployment Trust Fund) – $12.1 billion
Other Programs and Funds – $858.9 billion. (As of March 2011. Source: Treasury Bulletin, Monthly Treasury Statement, Table FD-3)
Foreign – $5.135 trillion
Federal Reserve - $1.6 trillion
State and Local Government, including their pension funds – $624 billion
Mutual Funds – $854 billion
Private Pension Funds – $595.9 billion
Banks – $307.2 billion
Insurance Companies – $254.1 billion
U.S. Savings Bonds – $184.8 billion
Other (individuals, government-sponsored enterprises, brokers and dealers, bank personal trusts and estates, corporate and non-corporate businesses, and other investors) – $1.23 trillion. (As of December 2011. Source: Treasury Bulletin, Ownership of Federal Securities, Table OFS-2)