明天开始银行出季报。低利率环境对银行营收不利:银行的大宗业务来自写债券,其次是并购类。前者受经济影响,企业扩大再生产不旺盛,借贷需求萎靡。后者受IPO、M&A下降,比不了前两年。欧洲、日本宽松和负利率赶货币出笼,但是市面上值得投资的好项目越来越少。我最近算buyout model 玩,看EV/EBITDA(enterprise value 收购价钱,和EBITDA的倍数,反映了买方肯出多高价钱),越看越摇头。这年头,有钱也不能买公司,贵不说,后面这个ratio 可能缩水。
展望:产油国会议前,油价可能波动,构成变数之一。明天开始的银行季报将挑战市场神经。因为今年季报前回调不到位,后面涨跌难料。分析师认为第一季度公司盈利比去年同期下降6.8%,要是假设PE ratio 不变,那现在SP应该比去年同期打折相应幅度,股市应该在1950上下,符合我对今年的评估:在没有股灾的前提下,SP 1900 到2000 是一个可以接受的估价区间。
Thanks for the comments back. I totally agree with you.
Here is what I observed: I feel sometimes the shorted short-term option leg is good if you are very disciplined, but it can hinder the trading plan if the trader is not disciplined. Also I understand your style is to bet on one direction.
George
12 DaXia,
Sorry that I can’t type Chinese at work. I have a question want to hear your expert comments.
Since you model April as a fluctuation month, (and so far it is). Have you consider open a spread against your SPY put to partially reduce the cost? (as an example, you buy 10 spy June put at 205 and short 5 weekly put of SPY at 201/202). I am sure you have a reason for not doing this practice, and your comment is greatly appreciated.
George