从巴菲特持仓看分散投资
牛经沧海
2/4/2017
分散投资是华尔街唯一的免费午餐。假如遇上一支股票季报不好下跌20％，能否承受这个冲击？如果占仓位5％，那么持仓价值缩水1％，问题应该不大；如果占总仓10％，下跌2％，有点微伤；如果占总仓20％，下跌4％，至少算轻伤；如果占50％，则下降10％，无疑是重创。
分散持仓不止看股票个数，占比，波动率，与大市相关性（贝他），内部相关性，市值大小，行业波动率，投资人风险承受能力等多项截面。以下看看巴菲特是如何摆平这些因素的，应该不无禆益。
1. 数据说话By Numbers （As of 9/30/2016, latest published data available）
19,000: Number of all U.S. stock
4,000: Number of actively traded stocks
500: Number of S&P 500 component stocks, representing over 70% of total U.S. equities
52: Number of Warren Buffet’s Portfolio stocks
8: Number of top stocks in Warren Buffet’s Portfolio, representing 80% of his holdings
3: Number of top sectors in Warren Buffet’s Portfolio, representing 80% of his holdings
2: Number of keywords in Warren Buffet’s Portfolio: Consumers and Services
1: Number of stock needed to simulate Warren Buffet’s Portfolio: ？
巴菲特8支重仓占据80%的权重. 由此可见，持多少股是一回事，但核心持仓应该不要太多。短期交易除外，沧海目前核心重仓10支约占70%，一般仓位10支约占25%. 仓位相对分散的原因主要有二：一是持股及行业相对波动较大，二是对持股的远景预期把握较不确定，承受短期（一个经济周期以内）波动的承受力较脆弱。大白话就是钱不够。
2. 巴菲特重仓一览Top Positions
|
Symbol |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
|
KHC |
The Kraft Heinz Co |
Consumer Defensive |
Consumer Packaged Goods |
|
WFC |
Wells Fargo & Co |
Financial Services |
Banks |
|
KO |
Coca-Cola Co |
Consumer Defensive |
Beverages - Non-Alcoholic |
|
IBM |
International Business Machines Corp |
Technology |
Application Software |
|
AXP |
American Express Co |
Financial Services |
Credit Services |
|
PSX |
Phillips 66 |
Energy |
Oil & Gas - Refining & Marketing |
|
USB |
US Bancorp |
Financial Services |
Banks |
|
MCO |
Moody's Corporation |
Industrials |
Business Services |
|
Symbol |
Company |
Price ($) |
Market Cap ($M) |
Value ($1000) |
Percentage (%) |
% of Company |
|
KHC |
The Kraft Heinz Co |
87.37 |
107,039 |
29,147,573 |
22.6 |
26.8 |
|
WFC |
Wells Fargo & Co |
54.22 |
272,309 |
21,241,306 |
16.5 |
9.6 |
|
KO |
Coca-Cola Co |
40.94 |
178,336 |
16,928,001 |
13.1 |
9.3 |
|
IBM |
International Business Machines Corp |
166.09 |
157,927 |
12,903,752 |
10.0 |
8.5 |
|
AXP |
American Express Co |
76.16 |
69,706 |
9,709,150 |
7.5 |
16.6 |
|
PSX |
Phillips 66 |
83.72 |
43,606 |
6,499,571 |
5.1 |
15.5 |
|
USB |
US Bancorp |
51.25 |
87,108 |
3,648,359 |
2.8 |
5.0 |
|
MCO |
Moody's Corporation |
94.00 |
17,973 |
2,671,244 |
2.1 |
12.9 |
3. Sector Diversification or Concentration
Disclaim： For general information exchange only, not for investment recommendations Disclaimer
This material has been prepared by牛经沧海@2017. This document is for information and illustrative purposes only and does not purport to show actual results. 牛经沧海shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. You should consult your advisors with respect to these areas.
