回顾自己过去五六年的投资学习和实践,从人生的角度看是个很大的跨越,最大的遗憾是没有更早的认真学习投资的基础知识。
Investing Isn’t Rocket Science
Buffett: You don’t have to know how to value all businesses. You have to stay within your circle of competence, and pick companies that sell for less than what they’re worth. Some don’t lend themselves to valuations, so you should ignore them…If you are in the investment business and have an IQ of 150, sell 30 points to someone else. You do have to have an emotional stability and an inner peace about your decisions. It is a game where you are bombarded by minute-by-minute opinions. It’s not a complicated game. It’s simple, but it’s not easy. You have to have an emotional stability.
Munger: There’s so much that’s false and nutty in modern banking and academia. If you just reduce the nonsense, that’s all you can reasonably hope for. If you think you have an IQ of 160 but it’s 150, you’re a disaster. It’s much better to have a 130 IQ and think it’s 120.
我无法解释为什么我没有能更早的主动去学习投资常识,或许是因为自己IQ太低了。经过这几年的努力,投资的日常现金流收入已经超过了家庭的工作收入。我现在对自己的人生有了更大的选择能力。
“在投资的世界里,一次大机会的成果远超过千百次的小折腾。同样的时代大家其实面临的机会都差不多,区别只在于把握度。真正的大机会,把握住一次足以改变境遇;把握住两次将开启全新的人生;把握住三次整个家族都会不同。从a股历史规律来看,其实每3-5年都大概率的会碰到一次好机会,然而大多数人早已在各种小折腾中荒废了。“ - 水晶苍蝇拍
在过去几年的投资实践中, 我已经非常幸运的把握住了一次大的机会,我希望在今后的3-5年的时间内完成第二次和第三次,从而提升整个家族的经济状况。每个人或家庭的经济财务目标都是不同的,我的目标是:
把握第二次的大机会, 将投资资产现金流达到普通工薪家庭收入的3-5倍。
把握第三次的大机会, 将投资资产现金流达到普通工薪家庭收入的5-10倍。
为了实现自己的战略目标,我将认真学习和使用老巴和芒格的投资经验。
2011年,老巴印度之行的谈话
“If you look at the typical stock on the New York Stock Exchange, its high will be, perhaps, for the last 12 months will be 150 percent of its low so they’re bobbing all over the place. All you have to do is sit there and wait until something is really attractive that you understand.”
“There’s almost nothing where the game is stacked more in your favor like the stock market”
“What happens is people start listening to everybody talk on television or whatever it may be or read the paper, and they take what is a fundamental advantage and turn it into a disadvantage. There’s no easier game than stocks. You have to be sure you don’t play it too often”
They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don't. It's just that simple.
芒格“选股的艺术“演讲
How many insights do you need? Well, I'd argue: that you don't need many in a lifetime. If you look at Berkshire Hathaway and all of its accumulated billions, the top ten insights account for most of it. And that's with a very brilliant man Warren's a lot more able than I am and very disciplined devoting his lifetime to it. I don't mean to say that he's only had ten insights. I'm just saying, that most of the money came from ten insights.
So you can get very remarkable investment results if you think more like a winning pari-mutuel player. Just think of it as a heavy odds against game full of craziness with an occasional mispriced something or other. And you're probably not going to be smart enough to find thousands in a lifetime. And when you get a few, you really load up. It's just that simple.
参考老巴和芒格的投资经验,投资成功的要点是在于精,而不是多, 所以加国的股市市场相对于我个人的资金量,已经提供了足够多和大的机会。 而我也在加国的市场中进一步的将自己的投资目标集中在蓝筹红利股的小范围内,基本包括加国的金融 ,保险,地产,通信和能源。
在今后的3-5年,我要实现的是自己的战略目标,所以所有的股市投资行为都要以战略目标为最重要的投资决策思考因素。
短期利益服从长期利益,战术安排服从战略规划,盈利目标服从风控原则。
对资产涨和跌的精确预测很难,但做出符合自己长期利益的决策却没有那么难。首先是要站在大概率和常识的一边,所谓君子不立于危墙下;其次安排好中长期的对策,让自己处于必赢的位置,最多付出时间代价而已;最后,学会做取舍。短期利益服从长期利益,战术安排服从战略规划,盈利目标服从风控原则。这其实就是赢家守则。 - 水晶苍蝇拍
大机会分两种:一种是看准一个大趋势与时代一起成长。比如房地产的这十几年,单个年份来看涨幅也并不惊人,大收益其实也是熬出来的;另一种是从危机中把握机遇,将大众的恐惧和贪婪为我所用。前一种需要很好的前瞻性和大格局,后一种需要对风险和机会敏锐的直觉和洞察力,而两者共用的要求是:强大的耐心和坚毅的品格。- 水晶苍蝇拍
从加国的实际出发,第二种类型的大机会是我目前的投资重点。
实际操作方式是比较简单的,等待加国的金融 ,保险,地产,通信和能源类个股出现恐慌性的市场回调时,大量买入 ,待市场平稳时卖出三分之一 或二分之一,反复重复这个投资战术动作,最终实现自己的战略目标。
从风险角度考虑,在恐慌性的市场回调时,买入加国的金融 ,保险,地产,通信和能源类蓝筹红利股票持有3-5年时间,到目前为止,还不曾出现过重大的败绩,基本都可以实行盈利。 我只考虑加国市场中的行业龙头,因为加国的商业市场垄断现象比较明显。
如果在未来的3-5年中,市场没有出现我可以理解和成功参与的投资大机会,参照长期的市场增长均值,我的投资组合依然可以有一倍左右的投资收益增长,虽然实现不了我期望的投资目标,但是依然可以在现有的基础上大幅度的提升我 的经济实力。
在操作方式上我追求的是简单有效,我觉得老巴和芒格的最经典招式已经能瞒足我的投资需求了。最近看了个电影“师傅”,我对电影中的格斗印象比较深刻,真正的实战决斗都只有一二招,几秒钟而已,这是符合有限的历史记录的,在高水平的武功大师,实战中都是在一二招,几秒钟之内分出胜负的。