在这里50%指的是股市或股价的大幅度波动，大幅度可以是30%，60%，当然也可以是50%。
“Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market.”
- 巴菲特
In October of 2009, Charlie Munger was interviewed on the BBC.
Here's what he had to say about Berkshire Hathaway's (BRKa) stock (it was down quite a bit at the time) and, more generally, the decline in common stocks.
So how much does Charlie worry when Berkshire's common stock declines?
"Zero. This is the third time that Warren and I have seen our holdings in Berkshire Hathaway go down, top tick to bottom tick, by 50%. I think it's in the nature of long term shareholding of the normal vicissitudes, in worldly outcomes, and in markets that the long-term holder has his quoted value of his stocks go down by say 50%. In fact, you can argue that if you're not willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of 50% two or three times a century you're not fit to be a common shareholder, and you deserve the mediocre result you're going to get compared to the people who do have the temperament, who can be more philosophical about these market fluctuations."
In this BBC interview with Warren Buffett, also from back in 2009, here's what he had to say
about the nature of stock markets.
"The very liquidity of stock markets causes people to focus on price action. If you buy an apartment house, if you buy a farm, if you buy a McDonald's franchise you don't think about what it's going sell for tomorrow or next week, or next month, you think about how is this business going to do. But stocks with this huge liquidity suck people in and they turn what should be an advantage into a disadvantage."
Then, later in the interview, Buffett said this about investment:
"...you compare the net return to how much money you are laying out, that's investment."
Finally, he added this:
"...you can still get in trouble if you pay too much, but you are focusing on the right thing if you look at the stream of income that the asset is going to produce over time."
2011年，老巴印度之行的谈话
“If you look at the typical stock on the New York Stock Exchange, its high will be, perhaps, for the last 12 months will be 150 percent of its low so they’re bobbing all over the place. All you have to do is sit there and wait until something is really attractive that you understand.”
一直以来我都使用TD这个投资实例来谈论我个人对投资的理解。这里TD是一个讨论中的举例。如果有人认为我的目的就是为了推荐TD， 我个人认为这样的人非常愚蠢，也不需要阅读我的贴子。 (how many times do I have to repeat this point lol) 我借用一下不迷糊的话
我直接从前一个帖子拷贝了上面一段话。
参照老巴和芒格的投资经验， 作为一名TD的股东， 我有100%的机率会遇到大幅度的股价波动，比如50%或更大，所以如何应对股价的大幅度波动是不可避免的事。
首先，在我的“对未来一段时间市场波动的应对思考”的贴子中的ABC预备方案的目标都是以低于市场正常价格50%建立仓位。
为什么我所有的预报方案的追求目标都是以低于市场正常价格50%建立仓位？我的目的是什么？
芒格的话说明了市场中的非理性波动的根源，我们知道在市场中有相当数量的把股票当彩票的投机者，也有相当数量的资金主动或被动的追求超短期和短期效益，所以市场真正能出现理性波动机会几乎没有。
I'd be a bum on the street with a tin cup if the markets were always efficient. - 巴菲特
为什么在TD的能源行业的贷款业务只占总量的1%的时候，股价的波动却要大出非常多？
为什么DRG--UN与能源行业毫不相干，业务也不再加国，股价确要与加国股市一起大幅下跌？
为什么JPM CEO 在2016年买入自家股票后，股票短期大涨50%以上？我曾经３次转贴过KK对JPM的分析文章
。。。。。。
这些公司的经营变化幅度一年之内都能达到50%？
Warren Buffett 1998 Talk at University of Florida
“We never buy a stock with a price target in mind. We never buy something at 30 and say ‘if it goes to 40 we’ll sell it.’… That’s just not the right way to look at a business.”
Buffett obviously does buy and sell stocks—and did much more of that in his early years—but the concept is to focus on stocks not as trading vehicles with price targets, but as businesses that produce cash flow for owners. Mr. Market will always be there offering prices that can be taken advantage of, but the mindset should be firmly focused on the fundamentals of the business and its future earning power, not on where the stock will go or when it will get there.
在谈论50%down之前，我们更应该谈谈50%up，因为这个问题更实际。
就TD而言，50%down是将来的事，而50%up是今天的事，过去几年接受我的投资观点而买入TD的人，现在有30 -100%的帐面利润，现在大家都在看衰加国，看衰加国银行， 而在刚刚发布季报中， TD的盈利创历史新高， 红利创历史新高，各项业务全面增长，美国业务更是以18%的增长表现最优。
面对这样的情况你打算怎么办？
