前几天,大千有位高手发帖说,趋势的天敌是震荡,震荡的天敌是趋势。
趋势与震荡的关系是鱼与熊掌的关系,往往不可兼得。人心总是贪婪的,读帖之后,一直在想,到底有没有一种方法可以同时掌控K线的趋势与震荡?
我找到的方法是:K线四分法。一般的K线分为上升趋势与下降趋势两类。这样当震荡幅度扩大的时候,往往会频频止损。K线四分法,就是把K线分为直线上升,震荡上升,直线下降,震荡下降四类。这样,既能顺势交易,又能在震荡来临的时候,确保仓位。
现以科技股为例,展示一下K线四分法的具体应用。
下图是美股主要科技股的趋势分析。其中,15个为直线上升型,10个为震荡上升型,2个为震荡下跌型,3个为直线下跌型。
操作方法是,在震荡上升是买入或加仓,在直线上升时,让利润奔跑,K线转为下跌型态时及时止损。
(此为抛砖引玉,不足之处,请大家补充。)
|
TREND VALUE |
TREND / CONSOLIDATING |
FISV |
100% |
STRAIGHT UP |
FB |
100% |
STRAIGHT UP |
ISRG |
100% |
STRAIGHT UP |
ADBE |
100% |
STRAIGHT UP |
AMGN |
93% |
STRAIGHT UP |
PYPL |
73% |
STRAIGHT UP |
NVDA |
67% |
STRAIGHT UP |
GILD |
60% |
STRAIGHT UP |
SBUX |
47% |
STRAIGHT UP |
PEP |
47% |
STRAIGHT UP |
NFLX |
40% |
STRAIGHT UP |
AMZN |
40% |
STRAIGHT UP |
TXN |
20% |
STRAIGHT UP |
BKNG |
20% |
STRAIGHT UP |
TMUS |
13% |
STRAIGHT UP |
AAPL |
107% |
CONSOLIDATING (TREND UP) |
AVGO |
67% |
CONSOLIDATING (TREND UP) |
MSFT |
60% |
CONSOLIDATING (TREND UP) |
ADP |
60% |
CONSOLIDATING (TREND UP) |
INTC |
53% |
CONSOLIDATING (TREND UP) |
GOOGL |
5% |
CONSOLIDATING (TREND UP) |
GOOG |
5% |
CONSOLIDATING (TREND UP) |
MDLZ |
5% |
CONSOLIDATING (TREND UP) |
COST |
5% |
CONSOLIDATING (TREND UP) |
INTU |
5% |
CONSOLIDATING (TREND UP) |
CMCSA |
-27% |
CONSOLIDATING (TREND DOWN) |
CSCO |
-47% |
CONSOLIDATING (TREND DOWN) |
CHTR |
-13% |
STRAIGHT DOWN |
TSLA |
-20% |
STRAIGHT DOWN |
QCOM |
-33% |
STRAIGHT DOWN |