冠疫蔓延到全世界之后,冷静思考就知道此时全球化、合作其实是最好的对策(对此美国很多人士也这么呼吁,参见:阅读指南:冠疫之后的中美关系),最近的一个观点是《大西洋月刊》的川黑David Frum的【11】,以及【18】,但是很多美国人,包括对中国政府不再寄望的(美国)华裔,觉得中国政府没有任何值得信赖的,结果大家得到的结论反而是全球化正是造成自己处于困境的主要原因,因为全球化最显著的结果是形成对中国的依赖。自己能干也好,不能干也好,都不是问题,问题是一直依赖中国。
彼此之间的不信赖,不仅仅是美中,或美国对中国,而是到处都是,如【《欧盟经济政策中心》【5】的一篇论文说三大经济体,美国欧盟和中国都兼职出口:
论文承认中国没有限制出口的政策,但实际上限制,但这搞错了。
欧盟不吃素【6】:
COVID-19— Chad P. Bown (@ChadBown) March 19, 2020
On March 15, the EU imposed emergency export curbs on $12.1 billion of hospital supplies destined for outside the bloc.
New channels of suffering: retaliatory export restrictions, supply chains, and indifference to poor countries.
My latest 1/https://t.co/aqpu20AvtM
三月底的习特通(话)后,美国美中开始降温,美国也开始从中国进口物资,虽然呼吸机中国产能不高,美欧还在打架【10】,但中国还是往美国运了不少,其他物资口罩防护服很多,欧盟也一样,连美国的反华帮凶小弟加拿大,被美国禁运后,这几天透漏出来说也从中国入货【12】。本来中国的“口罩外交”很成功,近几天被广州当局急于“外防输入、内防反弹”,惧怕一尊震怒,大肆虐待非洲籍驻外人士,结果竹篮打水一场空。
华姐的攻势有用吗?
加油前不忘损人一句
美国现在开始盘算如何把医疗物资产业链移回本国,这可以理解,但需要几年时间,而且需要征税(千亿吧,也不算多了),肯定不是能解燃眉之急的。可有时你恨一个人恨急了,据《纽时》报道【14】,从中国进口不减关税则自己折磨自己,减了,又怕中国乘机占便宜,也就是说,宁愿自己吃大亏,也不愿意中国占小便宜。
这种宁愿自己大亏,也不愿意中国占小便宜的心态最能体现的就是消毒液,美国有消毒液,但没有瓶子,需要从中国进口,据《彭博》【1】揭露,厂家Purell(大家熟悉了)申请免关税,但政府拒绝了【注1】。
这些都是小意思了,美国和欧盟(注意了,不是中国)的出口禁运不仅仅威胁到全世界,也威胁了自己【10,8,17】,这是全世界目前面临的最大的问题。
美国这种“宁愿自己吃大亏,不愿中国占小便宜”,受害的首先是美国人民【2】。《彼得森国际经济研究所Peterson Institute for International Economics》Chad Bown对美中贸易和关税一直跟踪,按他的分析,今天美国物资短缺,主要因素之一是关税。下面列举一下他的看法【3,4,7,,8,9】。
In 2018, health experts warned Trump. Putting tariffs on medical products would hurt US preparedness for pandemics. He did it anyway
“These products are essential to protecting healthcare providers and their patients"
“products on the proposed list are used widely throughout healthcare settings and are a critical component of our nation's response to public health emergencies”
~ Matt Rowan, August 2018 2/
“Finding alternative sources of supply for these products to minimize the cost impact of the duties is not a viable option in the near or medium term."
The FDA process ensures things work and are safe.
“This process can take more than two years.”
~ Lara Simmons, June 2019 4/
the Trump administration has imposed new taxes on almost $5 billion of medical exports from China, totaling about 26% of US health-care imports
而且,中国企业受打,把出口转向他国,尤其是欧洲,结果中国与欧洲的合约限制了当今中国给美国提供物资的能力,可以说如果不是政府民间把“救美国就是救中国”放在首位,美国拿不到那么多东西。
Deepest thanks to the friend in Beijing who managed to find and move to me 1000 KN95 masks, asking no recognition and no payment. The masks are now in the hands of our local, rural country hospital. Thank you, my friend.— Robert Kapp (@twerpsichore) April 7, 2020
Chad Bown说“中国医疗物资出口是全球抗疫中的希望之光”【7】,听起来优点肉麻,但那出自一个美国专家之口。他说的,“Just as you don’t want to be too dependent on China, you don’t want to be too dependent on yourself. You have now walled yourself off from the only way you can potentially deal with this, in your time of greatest need, which is relying on the rest of the world.”,全世界那个国家都该想想。
【注】
【1】据说这个关税前几天刚刚取消。《华尔街日报》有一篇相应的报道,美国因此无法,或被迫减少进口的物资很多,而且直接进口和厂家为医院生产的,至今还得承受20%的关税,这是些例子:
Glutaraldehyde, which Lubrizol Corp. needs to make disinfectant effective at killing coronavirus
Viscose Rayon Fibers, which Berry Global Group (Benson, NC) needs to make sanitary wipes
Face Splash Guards, which HLP Clear Packaging Products needs to make eyes-nose-mouth coverings
Anesthesia Machines, which Mindray (NJ) needs because they have built-in ventilators
GM steps in to help fight COVID-19. Remember, GM makes cars
GM agrees to learn to make VENTILATORS - a complex machine to aid the human respiratory system
March 31: GM learns Trump still has 25% trade war tariffs on ventilator PARTS
【相关】
冠疫文章
【资料】
(未加注明的文章出自《彼得森国际经济研究所Peterson Institute for International Economics》)
After scuttling its partnership with Beijing on public health, the U.S. was unprepared for the pandemic
【10】《彭博》U.S., EU Are Far Apart on Reshoring Making of Medical Gear
工信部说中国只有20%的呼吸机产能,大头在欧美,但欧美还在打架
We are experiencing a painful introduction to anti-globalism and its consequences
Diplomats, consultants create a made-for-Canada solution to get critical supplies from China
【13】《大西洋月刊》Why We’re Running Out of Masks
The United States’ secretive medical stockpile was prepped for a bombing, not a pandemic
【18】《南华早报》(陈序个人观点)Coronavirus crisis exposes the myth of global security built on nation-state competition