THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
We Have Never Been Here Before
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/25/opinion/putin-russia-ukraine.html
The seven most dangerous words in journalism are: “The world will never be the same.” In over four decades of reporting, I have rarely dared use that phrase. But I’m going there now in the wake of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Our world is not going to be the same again because this war has no historical parallel. It is a raw, 18th-century-style land grab by a superpower — but in a 21st-century globalized world.
。。。You have never seen this play before.
。。。In acting this way today, though, Putin is not only aiming to unilaterally rewrite the rules of the international system that have been in place since World War II — that no nation can just devour the nation next door — he is also out to alter that balance of power that he feels was imposed on Russia after the Cold War.
。。。Welcome to World War Wired — the first war in a totally interconnected world. This will be the Cossacks meet the World Wide Web. Like I said, you haven’t been here before.
。。。The outcome of this war will depend in large part on the will of the rest of the world to deter and roll back Putin’s blitzkrieg by primarily using economic sanctions and by arming the Ukrainians with antiaircraft and anti-tank weaponry to try to slow his advance. Putin may also be forced to consider the death toll of his own comrades.
。。。But in this modern era we have never seen an unfree country, Russia, try to rewrite the rules of the international system and take over a free country that is as big as Ukraine — especially when the unfree country, Russia, has an economy that is smaller than that of Texas.
。。。This war with no historical parallel won’t be a stress test just for America and its European allies. It’ll also be one for China. Putin has basically thrown down the gauntlet to Beijing: “Are you going to stand with those who want to overturn the American-led order or join the U.S. sheriff’s posse?”
。。。That should not be — but is — a wrenching question for Beijing. “The interests of China and Russia today are not identical,” Nader Mousavizadeh, founder and C.E.O. of the global consulting firm Macro Advisory Partners, told me. “China wants to compete with America in the Super Bowl of economics, innovation and technology — and thinks it can win. Putin is ready to burn down the stadium and kill everyone in it to satisfy his grievances.”
。。。The dilemma for the Chinese, added Mousavizadeh, “is that their preference for the kind of order, stability and globalization that has enabled their economic miracle is in stark tension with their resurgent authoritarianism at home and their ambition to supplant America — either by China’s strength or America’s weakness — as the world’s dominant superpower and rules setter.”
。。。
Indeed, if you ask me what is the most dangerous aspect of today’s world, I’d say it is the fact that Putin has more unchecked power than any other Russian leader since Stalin. And Xi has more unchecked power than any other Chinese leader since Mao. But in Stalin’s day, his excesses were largely confined to Russia and the borderlands he controlled. And in Mao’s day, China was so isolated, his excesses touched only the Chinese people.
Not anymore — today’s world is resting on two simultaneous extremes: Never have the leaders of two of the three most powerful nuclear nations — Putin and Xi — had more unchecked power and never have more people from one end of the world to the other been wired together with fewer and fewer buffers. So, what those two leaders decide to do with their unchecked power will touch virtually all of us directly or indirectly.
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is our first real taste of how crazy and unstable this kind of wired world can get. It will not be our last.
人类两种命运决战，乌克兰将名垂青史
对民主国家来说，最坏的结果是俄军速战速决，佔领乌克兰，扶植伪政权，收服乌克兰人心，再图东欧。普京声势大振，习近平野心复炽，那时世界民主全面退潮，时局无望。
对民主国家最好的结果是，乌克兰人民撑住了，与俄军打消耗战，拖普京入战争泥沼，以时间换空间。另一边厢，经济打击发挥实质作用，俄国金融系统崩溃，卢布大贬值，俄国民不聊生引发民变，那时普京将无生路。
普京倒台，影响习近平，中共国在内外困境夹击之下岌岌可危，两种价值观之决战可能到达一个临界点，双方以乌克兰战争的结果为起点决一生死，最终普京垮台，习近平加速跟上，人类的命运将彻底改变，那就真正是历史的终结。
自古以来哀兵必胜，乌克兰人民被欺负被欺骗，不屈服不涣散，小小民族激发巨大政治能量，也得到全世界爱好和平与正义人民的支持。人类命运将因俄乌战争而改变，是福是祸，在此一举，中俄胜则专制胜，美欧胜则普世胜，乌克兰人民举足轻重，将名垂青史。
