What is the possibility of an actual war between US and China?
The most probable war between the US and China will be in the South China Sea.
What’s the concern of the South China Sea?
The US has no sovereignty claim on the South China Sea, but China has. As a result, the US and China should have not war on the sovereignty dispute. The US will not risk war for the sovereignty of other countries. Should the US wage war on other countries? Yes, It has always waged war for other countries’ democracy, why not for other countries’ sovereignty? If we consider the US an altruistic country, it may sacrifice American lives for Vietnam's sovereignty. That s one of the reasons the US and China go to war. But Trump’s slogan is America First. Trump should not risk American lives for other countries’ disputes.
Second, the trade water route. The South China Sea is an important international water route. Every country depends on it for trade, including China and the USA. China depends on the water route more than any other country. If the USA has a reason to safeguard the water route, so does China and more. If the USA has a reason to send one carrier there, China has the same reason to send two carriers in proportion to its trade dependency on the South China Sea. Because China does not have two carriers, it has to make up for the situation by building islands. If both China and the USA need to keep the water safe for trade, why should they launch war there?
May be USA wage war on China just for “justice” to counter Chinese “expansionism” in the South China Sea. But China is justified to have sovereignty in the South China Sea. Chinese people are the first to discover the islands long before Columbus discovered America. Chinese people named the islands first and carried fishery in the South China Sea first. The status quo is that China has control and administration of the South China Sea by providing public service for the cargo ships passing through.
The USA may dispute the Chinese claim of “Since ancient times”. But Japan was defeated in 1945 and the South China Sea was returned to China as the world order or international law ever since. This is the present-day world order, not ancient times. The major islands there were named after the warships the US send to help China recover the islands from Japan. If the US is really for justice, defeating Japan during WWII is justice. Japan returned the South China Sea to China is also justice, or the US had committed a war crime by dropping atomic bombs on Japan.
It is Vietnam and the Philippines that build islands in the South China Sea first and on the disputed islands. China is building islands later, on no disputed islands. China is now guarding the world order after WWII. If International Military Tribunal for the Far East, Cairo Declaration, and Potsdam Declaration were legitimate, China has legitimate claims on the South China Sea. If the US and China have a war on the South China Sea, then the world order after WWII collapse.
