大选自上而下的组织系统 群众运动成功的一个重要因素,是完善有效的组织系统。 1 拜登退选给贺锦丽留下一个完整的竞选组织,而民主党全国委员会的正常运转,也为民主党2024年大选的正常操作, 提供了不可缺少的保障。贺锦丽团队的选情分析主管 Simon Rosenberg 乐观地说,民主党在资金,各级组织的统一行动(从党内大佬克林顿/奥巴马亲自出面为集会站台,到多位州长亲赴摇摆州,帮助基层组织激励民主党选民出来投票)这些大选获胜的必要元素上,都远远优于共和党。 2 被川普的儿媳妇接管的共和党全国委员会内部混乱,无所事事,且资金贫乏,失去了统一协调的功能。连续3届竞选,让川普的普通支持者厌倦了对川普的捐款,导致竞选资金主要来自个别超级富豪的捐款,如马斯克,从而无法与贺锦丽团队匹敌。竞选初期川普巨额的官司费用,更让其竞选团队的操作资金在关键的冲刺时刻捉襟见衬,不得不将大选的基层操作外包给马斯克。 川普在2021年1月6日指挥国会山暴乱的事实,让共和党各级大佬不要说公开为川普竞选站台,不公开出来与之决裂,已经是给川普最大的面子了, 使得川普只有马斯克跑前跑后替他张罗。对美国大选操作毫无经验的马斯克,除了打出造谣/诬陷这些没有底线的广告外,对基层助选催票几乎是空白,最终会被川普指责为"成事不足败事有余"的替罪羊。 作为世界首富,愚蠢地直接掺和美国政治操作的马斯克,将成为美国政治斗争的炮灰,最后因缺少赴火星避难的盘缠而受困地球,带领Trump身后的MAGA余部,在沙漠中靠喝沙子度日,愁等 Judgement Day 的到来。马斯克很快会失望地发现, 自己不是上帝, 美国比南非大。
总攻的冲锋号 1 大选到了冲刺阶段,但一贯昂扬的川普却变得沉寂下来,推掉了诸多采访,取消了与贺锦丽的第二次辩论,甚至把Town Hall meeting 改为音乐会,让自己回避观众的提问。有报道说,川普团队对外解释,紧锣密鼓的竞选让川普有些力不从心,心力憔碎。 在最近公开讲演中川普表现出的一系列清晰无误的词不达意,让我想到拜登退选前令人提心吊胆的公开讲话。面对被时间追上的川普的含糊其辞,我能体会川普支持者们现在的心情: 在发起总攻的时刻,领军人川普突然 lost his mojo, 找不到冲锋号了。
2 贺锦丽团队的选情分析主管 Simon Rosenberg 说,大选期间总统候选人辩论,是提升士气的最佳机会。但川普取消了常规下的第二次辩论,让辩论一定获胜的贺锦丽失去了一次鼓舞民主党士气的宝贵机会。而贺锦丽10月16日接受Fox News 的采访,补上了这一机会。 无论川普的支持者如何靠否定贺锦丽的表现来"夜行人吹口哨",主持人代表川普咄咄逼人/但老生常谈的提问,并没有对贺锦丽造成任何"新的伤害"。恰恰相反,面对无礼/不公平的采访方式,贺锦丽镇定自若,先礼后兵地从"礼貌回应到坚定地予以反驳"。她痛斥川普"要用军队对付持不同政见者"时表现出不容置疑的坚定,让屡屡打断她说话的主持人心虚地安静下来,任由贺锦丽在川普的大本营中,掷地有声地教育川普,美国的核心意义是什么。
3 为了守卫这个意义,贺锦丽的搭档 Tim Walz 在竞选中常用一句话激励士气, "We'll leave it on the field, we'll have plenty of time to sleep after we are dead (我们要将一切都留在沙场上,死后我们有足够的时间安眠")。在今后两周民主党全面向胜利冲击的浪潮下,那些依然犹豫不决的选民, 将选择与胜利方站在一边。贺锦丽接受福克斯采访时对美国不容置疑的解释/捍卫,吹响了民主党大选总攻的冲锋号:
"Once more onto the breath, dear friends, once more, Or close the wall up with our English dead..." (Henry V, Act 3, Scene 1) "向着失守的阵地再冲一次,朋友们,再冲一次!
或让我们用英军将士的身躯将那个缺口堵住!" (亨利五世,第3场,第2幕)
回复 'ShalakoW' 的评论 : Trump's behaviors are purly (politically) suicidal, that's why I don't think Trump'll got another chance this time either.
And - as non-American living across the Atlantic I don't like ANYONE pro-Putin, nor am I a fan of American Isolationism (that, and Neo-Confederacy & what it represent) in general.
So, I don't want to be "Stabbed-in-the-back" from the west of the Atlantic, while Russia's only Baltic away...
neshershahor 发表评论于
回复 'ShalakoW' 的评论 : 現在這個階段兩邊都在使出渾身解朮“一定要去投票+投我一票”,所以……there's not much to say on media, only: fingers crossed
ShalakoW 发表评论于
@chc_magnet and neshershanor,
****
You are right, this Trump's Generals of Hitler news is a big deal.
https://youtu.be/rPqgCiXDces?si=XX7Z56RTkCI9i1-5
ShalakoW 发表评论于
@chc_magnet and neshershanor,
I believe J6 event has most significantly changed the political land-field in this election cycle, and compelled a lot of Republicans and previous Trump-voters to vote for Harris this time around.
It had also been one of the major reasons for me to question the credibility of the polls in general, before I finally gave up on them altogether.
ShalakoW 发表评论于
@neshershahor and chc_magnet,
我感觉,在早期投票中高于常规的共和党选民的投票中,a good part 是投给贺锦丽的。现在媒体只是笼统的给出早期投票中民主党/共和党选民的投票比例(没人知道他们具体投给谁), 是媒体炒作"胶着大选"的把戏,以图增加收视率。
neshershahor 发表评论于
回复 'chc_magnet' 的评论 : I really feel lucky that I went to a European Gymnasium instead of an American high-school...
During his time in office, Trump once said, \"I need the kind of generals that Hitler had.\"John Kelly has now confirmed this request: \"Surely you can\'t mean Hitler\'s generals? And he said, \'Yeah, yeah, Hitler\'s generals.\'
ShalakoW 发表评论于
chc_magnet:... Let's fight a good fight.
****
Exactly, and win the fight.
ShalakoW 发表评论于
@feiteng,
Thank you.
ShalakoW 发表评论于
@节度使,
Thank you.
feiteng 发表评论于
好文,支持博主!
ShalakoW 发表评论于
@baojj,
Haven't you realized that the conversation you initialized makes no more sense than wasting people's time?
Come back not.
Baojj
What is your point? I am sure Trump’s answer will be more coherent. He attacked Harris’s intelligence so all Trumpsters took it as a Bible verse, 脑残。
baojj 发表评论于
Q: "How much is 2+2 ?"
A: "Let's just get to the point. Numbers are what make it possible to count in a meaningful fashion, to add and subtract, and they're a topic everyone should be familiar with. Coming from a middle-class background where everyone took care of their lawns, my position hasn't changed on that, and I know you know what I'm talking about, and how significant the passage of time can be. Next question."
chc_magnet: As a 71 year’s old grandma, I have voted for my three little granddaughters. let’s fight a good fight!
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You did the right thing, not only for your granddaughters, but also for the country.
Thank you.