“加拿大，奋起直追”模块3 文字记录：
Stephen Mirran 的《全球贸易体系重构用户指南》摘要与分析
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欢迎大家。今天，我们将通过 Stephen Miran 的论文《全球贸易体系重构用户指南》探讨国际贸易。Miran 巧妙地将关税、货币调整和国家安全整合成一个统一的战略，以巩固特朗普第二届政府领导下的美国产业。这篇分析由卡尔顿大学斯普罗特商学院的 Tony Bailetti 博士和 Ian Lee 博士共同呈现，旨在挑战我们重新构想全球贸易及其对我们经济未来的影响。让我们深入探讨，在快速变化的世界中，这些相互关联的因素将如何重塑我们的产业。
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现在，让我们聚焦于斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）在2024年11月发表的论文中提出的一份大胆变革的美国全球经济主导蓝图。米兰是特朗普政府内阁人选，
他提供了对特朗普主义的唯一系统性分析，并揭示了未来四年的详细路线图。他的见解对我们的邻国加拿大尤其重要，因为他们现在必须应对由美国旨在利用美国经济实力的战略性关税威胁所塑造的格局。其影响深远，促使所有利益相关者重新评估其在竞争日益激烈的全球舞台上的地位。在我们深入探讨这些观点的同时，
不妨思考一下：一个拥有如此激进战略的经济体，将如何重塑国际贸易，乃至全球权力的架构？让我们在继续分析的同时，共同探讨这些问题。
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让我们关注斯蒂芬·米兰论文《重组全球贸易体系用户指南》背后的真正目的。在本书中，米兰提出了一份全面的蓝图，旨在通过将关税、货币调整和国家安全问题整合到一个战略框架中来重新定义国际贸易。他的目标很明确：增强美国工业，并在竞争日益激烈的全球舞台上巩固美国的经济主导地位。
在审视这一战略时，必须同时考虑其前景和风险。就其益处而言，米兰的方法具有诸多显著优势。首先，它为振兴美国制造业提供了清晰、系统的路线图，帮助美国工业重新获得竞争优势。其次，通过将经济政策与国家安全需求相结合，该战略构建了一个有凝聚力的愿景，有助于在全球不确定时期简化决策。最后，对于11位政策制定者和商界领袖中的两位而言，这份蓝图提供了他们急需的清晰思路——在这个经济动荡和快速变革的时代，它是一盏指路明灯。
然而，与任何大胆的战略一样，它也存在一些固有的缺点，需要我们谨慎关注。一个重大风险是贸易伙伴可能采取报复措施——这些行动可能升级为更广泛的经济冲突，并扰乱全球供应链。此外，激进的关税和货币调整措施可能会无意中导致市场扭曲，破坏国际贸易规范的微妙平衡。虽然重点是美国的主导地位，但这种做法也可能引发意想不到的长期地缘政治影响，从而破坏全球经济稳定。本质上，米兰的论文挑战我们权衡这些变革性益处与破坏我们互联互通的世界稳定的风险。它迫使我们自问：重振工业实力和战略清晰度的前景是否值得冒着经济混乱和地缘政治后果的风险？在我们推进讨论的过程中，让我们拥抱这种双重视角——认识到每一项开创性的战略都既蕴含着机遇，也蕴含着不确定性。这种平衡，这种大胆设想与谨慎反思之间的动态张力，正是真正具有变革意义的经济思想的核心。
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现在，让我们来总结一下斯蒂芬·米兰的论文《重构全球贸易体系用户指南》的精髓。米兰在此勾勒出一幅全面的蓝图，引领我们重新思考国际贸易的根基。请允许我为您梳理其中的关键要素：
1. 核心问题：
本文的核心是一个关键问题——我们当前的全球贸易体系究竟存在哪些根本性的缺陷？米兰指出，根深蒂固的失衡和过时的政策正在破坏公平竞争和国内产业的可持续增长。
2. 拟议的美国战略：
作为回应，本文概述了一项大胆的美国战略。这不仅仅是一些想法的集合；而是一个精心策划的路线图，旨在利用美国的经济实力重新定义全球贸易，
恢复竞争力并确立战略主导地位。
3. 关税政策及其经济影响：
关税并非本文所描绘的钝器。相反，米兰探讨了精心调整的关税政策如何保护国内产业，同时重塑国际经济互动。这种方法旨在重新调整贸易动态，以促进强劲的国民经济。
4. 美国贸易伙伴分类：
鉴于并非所有贸易关系都相同，本文对美国贸易伙伴进行了分类。通过了解其独特的经济角色和行为，可以制定针对性的战略来应对特定挑战并利用独特的机遇。
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5. 货币政策与储备资产调整：
该战略的一个关键支柱是重新审视货币政策和调整储备资产。
本部分探讨了货币估值的变化如何影响全球金融稳定并帮助平衡贸易差距。
6. 金融市场后果与风险：
任何转型战略都存在风险。米兰敏锐地意识到，如此全面的政策变革可能带来的潜在影响——市场波动、意外的经济中断以及更广泛的金融不稳定。
7. 国际贸易关系的长期重构：
最终，本文展望了国际贸易的长期重构。它呼吁我们重新构想全球经济关系，努力建立一个不仅更加平衡、公平，而且能够应对新兴挑战的体系。
所有这些观点相互交织，形成了一个统一且大胆的战略——一个挑战传统范式，并鼓励我们展望美国领导改革后的全球贸易体系的未来。当我们反思这些要素时，请思考工业复苏的希望与经济中断的潜在可能性之间的微妙平衡。正是这种风险与回报之间的动态张力，使得米兰的分析既引人注目又发人深省。
现在，让我们深入探讨这些主题，继续探索这一全球贸易变革愿景。
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在此之前，让我们先来了解一下我们杰出的经济学家斯蒂芬·米兰 (Stephan Miran) 的简介，他的著作是我们讨论的大部分内容的基础。想象一下，一位学者的思想之旅连接着公共和私营部门，他的见解持续影响着经济政策的走向。斯蒂芬于2005年在波士顿大学获得经济学、哲学和数学学士学位——这为他探索我们经济世界的复杂性奠定了坚实的基础。在此基础上，他继续在哈佛大学攻读经济学博士学位，并有幸师从受人尊敬的经济学家马丁·费尔德斯坦 (Martin Feldstein)。这段深入的学术研究时期不仅磨练了他的分析能力，也使他形成了应对经济挑战的远见卓识。
2024年12月，当选总统唐纳德·特朗普提名斯蒂芬担任经济顾问委员会主席，他的专业知识得到了政府最高层的认可。这一关键职位赋予斯蒂芬就经济政策问题向总统提供建议的重任，彰显了人们对他指导国家战略能力的信任。斯蒂芬的职业生涯中担任过一系列举足轻重的职位。在疫情期间的经济衰退期间，他担任美国财政部经济政策高级顾问，在11项关键财政支持措施中的4项中发挥了关键作用。后来，他担任哈德逊湾资本管理公司的高级策略师，专注于全球投资策略——以洞察力和精准度在动荡的国际金融海域中航行。当他与他人共同创立资产管理公司Amberwave Partners时，他的企业家精神得到了充分展现，这体现了他对创新金融解决方案的承诺。此外，作为曼哈顿研究所的高级研究员，他参与了深入的研究和政策分析，这些研究和分析持续影响着公众辩论。
在他的职业生涯中，斯蒂芬·米兰为财政和货币政策的学术和公共讨论做出了广泛的贡献，他的作品发表在《美国经济学期刊》、《华尔街日报》和彭博社等知名出版物上。他的贡献提醒我们，严谨的学术研究与实际应用的结合不仅是可能的，而且对于制定持久的政策至关重要。
今天，当我们思考他的战略愿景时，让我们欣赏他经验的深度和广度——这证明了深思熟虑的分析在推动变革方面的力量。现在，让我们继续探索，从他非凡的历程和他为重塑全球经济格局提供的洞见中汲取灵感。
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现在，让我们深入探讨米兰分析的核心问题：持续存在的美国贸易失衡，而美元高估加剧了这一问题。美元凭借其全球储备货币的地位，仍然人民币持续被高估。这种高估并非仅仅是一个小小的经济怪癖——它从根本上扭曲了国际贸易。当美元走高时，美国出口产品的价格会更高，从而导致其在全球舞台上的竞争力下降。相反，进口产品会变得更便宜，进一步打破国内生产的平衡，并导致美国制造业的衰落。
此外，美国需要向全球经济提供储备资产，这给美国带来了固有的财政负担。这项义务不仅加剧了贸易逆差，也给国内产业带来了额外的压力，加剧了不平衡的贸易框架带来的挑战。
本质上，这种高估会引发一系列负面影响——提高出口价格、削弱国内商品的竞争力以及加剧贸易逆差。当我们考虑这些因素时，我们不禁要问：如何改革这样的体系才能恢复平衡并提振美国产业？正是这个问题推动着我们不断探索。
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介绍拟议的美国战略——一项旨在彻底改变国际经济关系结构的大胆愿景。想象一下，一个统一的框架将关税、货币调整和国家安全问题无缝整合成一项连贯的政策。这并非零敲碎打的做法；而是一项旨在同时完成多项任务的综合战略。
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首先，通过整合这些工具，该框架旨在通过有针对性的贸易政策来增加政府收入，同时降低通胀压力。这种方法不仅仅是应对当前的失衡，而是积极主动地为更加平衡的经济未来奠定基础。
这一战略的核心是国际经济关系的重大转变。在这里，美国的贸易伙伴不再被视为一个单一的群体。相反，它们根据其贸易惯例和安全立场进行分类。这种分类至关重要——它允许制定差异化的政策。例如，关税
可以作为一种杠杆，迫使各国开放那些对美国企业关闭的本土产业或产品市场。换句话说，如果一个国家执意限制市场准入，它将面临全面的经济惩罚。
不妨考虑一下这一战略雄心勃勃的一面：它旨在向主要贸易伙伴（尤其是中国和其他国家）施压，迫使它们做出有利于美国经济的经济让步。该计划概述了一项大规模的关税政策——对中国征收60%的关税，对其他国家征收至少10%的关税。这并非一种微妙的
暗示；而是一项旨在重新调整全球贸易平衡的大胆而果断的举措。
但是，与所有大胆的战略一样，它也存在固有的风险。这些全面的措施也带来了重大担忧：金融市场波动、可能采取的报复性贸易措施，以及对美国出口商可能陷入这些激进政策交火的意外后果。
本质上，这项拟议战略既富有远见，又饱受争议——它刻意将经济政策作为巩固国家实力的工具。它挑战我们不仅要思考重塑工业主导地位的潜力，还要思考强硬的政策制定与不可预测的全球市场动态之间的微妙平衡。当我们反思这一点时，不妨扪心自问：我们如何才能在有效利用这些强大工具的同时，降低它们必然带来的风险？这正是我们持续进行的关于重塑国际贸易的讨论的核心问题。
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这项变革性战略的一个关键组成部分占据了中心位置：关税政策及其预期的经济影响。想象一下，关税不仅仅是一种防御性工具，而是一个旨在重新调整全球贸易平衡的战略杠杆。拟议战略设想使美元相对于我们贸易伙伴的货币贬值。这一刻意调整旨在提升美国商品的竞争力——使出口更具吸引力，吸引重要的投资，并最终在全国范围内创造制造业就业机会。
为了更好地理解这一点，该提案要求对中国征收高达 60% 的关税，并对其他国家征收至少 10% 的关税。这些高额关税不仅旨在增加政府收入，还能在贸易谈判中成为强有力的筹码。通过利用这些关税，美国有可能迫使其贸易伙伴重新考虑并调整自身的贸易政策。
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这种方法的另一个有趣之处在于它依赖于货币调整。该策略假设，通过允许外币相对于美元贬值，可以有效地抵消此类关税通常可能产生的通胀压力。本质上，即使美国实施更为强硬的贸易政策，这
也将有助于维持稳定的经济环境。
总而言之，此处的关税政策并非仅仅关乎保护主义。它是一个多方面的工具——旨在
通过增加收入、提升国际谈判筹码以及
最终巩固美国工业的支柱来重塑贸易格局。在思考这个问题时，我们必须自问：这种平衡运用关税和货币调整的策略能否真正推动经济复苏？还是说，市场波动和意外后果的内在风险过于巨大？这是全球贸易重组讨论的核心挑战。
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将焦点转移到如何根据这一战略对美国贸易伙伴进行分类，揭示了一个关键要素，它强调了量身定制的外交和经济杠杆的艺术。本文将根据三个核心标准对各国进行系统排名：贸易公平、货币政策和国家安全一致性。
这种细致入微的方法认识到并非所有贸易伙伴都是生来平等的。对于那些符合美国贸易和安全预期的盟友和国家，该战略提供了一条降低关税的途径——这是一种奖励遵守与合作的经济善意。
相反，那些从事不公平贸易行为，或其货币和安全政策偏离既定规范的国家，可能面临更高的关税和更严重的经济后果。这种双重方法不仅激励了全球舞台上的公平竞争，也强调了将经济政策与更广泛的国家安全利益相一致的重要性。
最终，通过以这种方式对贸易伙伴进行分类，该战略创建了一个动态框架，其中明确界定了经济奖励和惩罚。它挑战我们将国际贸易视为一种静态的、一刀切的关系，而是一个经过精心校准的体系，奖励负责任的行为，惩罚破坏全球贸易平衡的行为。
展望未来，让我们思考这一分类体系的更广泛影响——它将如何重塑我们的国际关系，并重新定义公平贸易在快速发展的全球经济中的意义。
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让我们将焦点转向这一战略的一个重要组成部分——货币政策和储备资产调整。在这方面，美国准备探索单边和多边方法来调整外币价值，此举旨在创造公平的经济竞争环境。
历史上，我们看到美国依靠多边合作来影响货币价值——这一战略的根基在于在国际伙伴之间建立共识。但在当今快速变化的全球格局中，该战略并不局限于这条传统路径。现在，美国正在考虑采取单边干预措施中的7项，这是一项大胆举措，旨在抵消持续存在的外币低估现象，这种现象可能会扭曲贸易，并使美国产业处于不利地位。
设想这样一个场景：美国能够直接影响这些货币动态——确保我们的出口保持竞争力，同时保护国内市场免受不公平的外部压力。这种双重策略，将久经考验的多边参与方式与果断的单边行动相结合，旨在确保更加平衡的经济环境。
本质上，通过重新调整货币价值，该战略旨在增强美国经济抵御海外低估的负面影响。这是一项具有前瞻性的举措，它认识到全球金融相互依存的复杂性，并致力于利用这些因素来增强国家经济韧性。在我们继续探索的过程中，不妨思考一下，这些积极的政策调整不仅可能重塑贸易，甚至可能重塑全球经济稳定的架构。
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审视这一雄心勃勃的战略对金融市场的影响和潜在风险，对于理解其更广泛的影响至关重要。在我们踏上这条变革之路之际，必须承认，任何重大的政策转变都伴随着内在的不确定性。
该战略建立在通过实施关税和货币调整来重新平衡贸易的前提上。然而，这些措施可能会给全球金融市场带来波动。一个迫在眉睫的风险是外国政府可能采取报复性贸易措施——这种反应可能引发贸易壁垒的针锋相对升级，破坏国际贸易微妙的平衡。
此外，市场不确定性的加剧也是一个真正的担忧。随着投资者在这些动荡的环境中前行，
全球投资可能会受到不利影响，信心动摇，资本流动中断。这种不确定性不仅仅是暂时的不便，它可能对全球经济稳定产生持久影响。
另一个美国出口商面临着重大风险。在关税上升和对外贸易政策更加严格的背景下，这些企业可能面临更高的生产成本和难以逾越的贸易壁垒。
这些挑战可能会削弱它们在全球舞台上的竞争力——这一结果必须谨慎应对。
总而言之，虽然拟议的战略旨在重塑全球贸易体系，使其有利于美国的经济利益，但它也带来了市场波动、报复性行动以及国内出口商意外受挫的可能性。在反思这些风险时，我们必须扪心自问：如何在大胆的经济转型与审慎管理其后果之间取得适当的平衡？这是重新构想我们国际贸易方针的核心挑战。
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幻灯片12
展望长远愿景，揭示了重构国际贸易关系的变革蓝图。这一战略不仅仅是短期调整；它设想了全球经济关系构想和管理方式的根本性转变。
首先，该战略力求将贸易政策明确地与国家安全和经济自给自足联系起来。
想象一下这样一个世界：每一项贸易决策的评估不仅基于市场指标，还基于其对国家整体韧性和安全的贡献。在这种新模式下，经济政策将成为维护国家利益和促进可持续增长的工具。
其次，该战略使美国能够从其贸易伙伴那里获得更大的财政贡献。通过分担提供储备资产的负担，该战略为国际金融创造了一个更加平衡和公平的框架。这意味着我们的贸易伙伴将为全球金融体系的稳定做出更大的贡献——这一转变不仅有望减轻我们的经济负担，也有望促进一个更具协作性的全球经济秩序。
最终，我们的愿景是在不牺牲美元作为全球储备货币的尊贵地位的情况下提升美国制造业的竞争力。这是一项雄心勃勃的平衡之举：一方面，巩固我们的工业基础；另一方面，维护美元作为全球最值得信赖的货币所带来的稳定性和影响力。
从本质上讲，这项长期重组呼吁我们重新构想我们在世界上的地位。它挑战我们将安全、公平和经济韧性融入国际贸易的根本结构中。当我们思考这一变革性愿景时，让我们扪心自问：这样一个改革后的全球贸易架构如何才能不仅服务于我们的国家利益，还能促进建立更加稳定和公正的全球经济秩序？这是21世纪重新思考国际贸易的前景，也是深刻的挑战。
幻灯片 13
现在，当我们回顾并评估《全球贸易体系重组用户指南》中提出的总体战略时，我们发现自己面对的是一种既大胆又激进的策略。这并非胆怯之人能采取的策略；它是一种对全球经济秩序的强硬重塑——旨在使力量平衡向有利于美国的方向倾斜。
其核心在于，该战略充分利用了关税、蓄意操纵汇率和基于安全的贸易政策等一系列强有力的手段。这些并非孤立的工具，而是相互关联的杠杆，每个杠杆都旨在推动重构全球体系的愿景——在这个体系中，美国的经济利益高于一切。
激进的关税运用，加上精心策划的货币价值调整，共同构建了一个旨在保护和支持国内产业的动态框架。同时，通过将11项国家安全考量中的9项纳入贸易政策，该战略使美国不仅能够在经济交流中发号施令，还能维护其地缘政治利益。
本质上，这是一种全面、无所顾忌的策略——它挑战了传统的贸易范式，倡导国际经济关系管理方式的彻底转变。它敢于提出这样的问题：我们能否重塑全球贸易体系，使其更好地服务于我们的国家利益，同时应对互联互通世界带来的不确定性？
在评估这一主张时，我们必须认识到其变革潜力和其蕴含的重大风险。这项战略需要仔细审视，它促使我们在重塑工业实力的希望与重塑全球经济格局所固有的挑战之间取得平衡。现在，让我们更深入地探讨这些大胆举措对国际贸易的未来以及我们自身经济命运的意义。
探究这一拟议战略如何使美国受益，可以揭示其与经济政策和国家安全紧密交织的潜在优势。
首先，并考虑增加美国财政部收入的前景。通过战略性地征收关税，政府将获得可观的收入。这笔资金的流入不仅是为了平衡预算，还在于通过抵消赤字和为关键的国内部门投资提供新的资源来增强整个美国经济。
其次，我们有机会重新平衡贸易，使之有利于美国。想象一下这样一个场景：通过协调一致的货币调整，美国商品在全球舞台上重新获得竞争优势。随着外币汇率的调整，我们的出口产品将变得更具吸引力，我们的国内产业也将在国际市场上焕发新的活力。
另一个关键优势在于，这一战略赋予了我们与贸易伙伴之间的杠杆作用。通过将关税作为谈判工具，美国可以敦促达成更公平的贸易协定。这种杠杆作用在遏制知识产权盗窃和其他不公平贸易措施等行为方面尤其有效——而这正是我们与中国等国家打交道时面临的一个重大问题。
此外，该战略旨在通过经济手段加强国家安全。通过将贸易政策与国家安全目标相结合，该战略确保钢铁和半导体等关键行业仍处于美国的掌控之下。这样，经济政策就不会脱离我们更广泛的安全利益，而是可以作为抵御关键行业脆弱性的壁垒。
最后，考虑制造业创造就业机会的潜力。通过抑制进口并激励国内生产，这项政策可能会刺激美国制造业就业岗位的复苏，尤其是在对国家经济健康至关重要的行业。
从本质上讲，该战略不仅旨在重新调整国际贸易格局，而且还将从多个角度巩固美国经济——通过增加收入、增强贸易竞争力、提升议价能力、加强国家安全和强劲创造就业机会。当我们反思这些好处时，不难发现，这是一项旨在确保美国繁荣未来的全面举措。现在，让我们展望未来，思考这些优势将如何重塑我们的经济未来。
幻灯片 15-16
审视这项拟议战略中的潜在弱点，可以坦诚地评估其雄心勃勃的雄心壮志背后所面临的挑战。
首先，我们必须承认报复性关税的风险。在这个充满活力的全球贸易舞台上，各国——尤其是像中国和欧盟这样的强大参与者——可能会对美国出口产品征收反关税。这种报复性措施可能会产生连锁反应，损害依赖全球市场的美国企业。
其次，还要考虑市场波动和投资者不确定性的影响。贸易政策的快速、彻底变化，加上潜在的货币贬值，可能会引发金融不稳定。这种不确定性可能会引发资本外逃，进一步破坏本已脆弱的经济平衡。
此外，我们还面临通胀风险的挑战。虽然该战略依靠外币贬值来抵消物价上涨，但现实世界的货币反应是出了名的难以预测。实际上，进口成本上升可能转化为消费价格上涨，给家庭和整体经济带来压力。
此外，美国出口商也面临重大影响。如果金融市场做出负面反应——可能导致美元走强——美国出口的竞争力可能会进一步下降，从而损害该战略试图保护的行业。
另一个关键担忧是国际关系可能面临的压力。激进的经济举措可能会促使我们的传统盟友转向其他经济联盟，例如中国的“一带一路”倡议。这种转变可能会削弱长期存在的联盟，并减少在关键全球安全和经济问题上的合作。
最后，或许最深远的风险是美元可能失去其储备货币地位。如果美国被视为积极操纵货币并对其贸易伙伴施加不利条件，我们可能会见证替代性全球金融体系的出现——可能由中国主导——这可能会从根本上改变全球经济秩序。
本质上，虽然拟议的战略旨在重新调整我们的经济未来，但它并非没有重大风险。这些挑战清醒地提醒我们，任何变革性政策都必须在大胆创新与审慎风险管理之间取得平衡。在反思这些弱点时，让我们扪心自问：
潜在的利益真的能够超过风险吗？还是意想不到的后果会损害我们试图实现的目标？这是重新思考我们处理全球贸易方式的核心关键矛盾。
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结束语
当我们将这一探索引向……
最后，我邀请各位思考雄心勃勃的雄心与谨慎的管理之间的双重性。我们探讨的战略挑战我们重新构想全球贸易——呼吁我们
将风险转化为机遇，将不确定性转化为行动。扪心自问：我们准备好塑造一个由美国的创新和安全重新定义游戏规则的经济未来了吗？
现在不是被动观察的时刻，而是积极参与的时刻。让我们运用集体智慧，积极辩论，迈出果断的步伐，迈向一个我们的政策赋能产业、
巩固我们的联盟、并激发持久进步的未来。现在是采取深思熟虑、勇敢行动的时候了。
"Up Our Game, Canada" Module 3 Transcript:
A Summary and Analysis of Stephen Mirran's “A User's Guide to
Restructuring the Global Trading System”
https://sprott.carleton.ca/up-our-game-canada/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2025/03/Up-Our-Game-Canada-Module-3-Transcript-Summary-Analysis-of-Stephen-Mirans-A-Users-Guide-to-Restructuring-the-Global-Trading-System.pdf
A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System
https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf?
Slide 1:
Welcome, everyone. Today, we explore international trade through Stephen Miran’s paper, ‘A User’s
Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System.’ Miran masterfully integrates tariffs, currency
adjustments, and national security into a unified strategy to fortify American industry under a second
Trump administration. Brought to you by Tony Bailetti, Ph.D., and Ian Lee, Ph.D. of the Sprott School of
Business, Carleton University, this analysis challenges us to reimagine global trade and its impact on our
economic future. Let’s dive in and uncover how these interlocking elements can reshape our industries
in a rapidly changing world.
Slide 2:
So, let’s now focus on a bold, transformative blueprint for U.S. global economic domination
from Stephen Miran’s November 2024 paper. Miran, a Trump administration cabinet pick,
offers the only systematic analysis of the Trump doctrine, revealing a detailed roadmap for the
next four years. His insights are especially crucial for our Canadian neighbours, who must now
navigate a landscape shaped by strategic U.S. tariff threats aimed at harnessing American
economic power. The implications are profound, urging all stakeholders to reassess their
positions in an increasingly competitive global arena. As we delve deeper into these ideas,
consider this: How might an economy, armed with such an aggressive strategy, reshape not
only international trade but also the very fabric of global power? Let’s explore these questions
together as we continue our analysis.
Slide 3
Taking our attention to the very purpose behind Stephen Miran’s paper, A User’s Guide to Restructuring
the Global Trading System. In this work, Miran sets forth a comprehensive blueprint that seeks to
redefine international trade by integrating tariffs, currency adjustments, and national security concerns
into one strategic framework. His aim is clear: to bolster American industry and assert U.S. economic
dominance in an increasingly competitive global arena.
As we examine this strategy, it is essential to consider both its promises and its pitfalls. On the benefits
side, Miran’s approach offers several compelling advantages. First, it provides a clear, systematic
roadmap for revitalizing American manufacturing, positioning U.S. industries to regain a competitive
edge. Second, by aligning economic policy with national security imperatives, the strategy creates a
cohesive vision that can help streamline decision-making in times of global uncertainty. Finally, for
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policymakers and business leaders alike, this blueprint offers much-needed clarity—a guiding light in an
era marked by economic turbulence and rapid change.
Yet, as with any bold strategy, there are inherent disadvantages that demand our careful attention. One
significant risk is the potential for retaliatory measures from trade partners—actions that could escalate
into broader economic conflicts and disrupt global supply chains. Moreover, the aggressive use of tariffs
and currency adjustments might inadvertently lead to market distortions, unsettling the delicate balance
of international trade norms. While the focus is on American dominance, such an approach may also
trigger unintended long-term geopolitical repercussions that could undermine global economic stability.
In essence, Miran’s paper challenges us to weigh these transformative benefits against the risks of
destabilizing our interconnected world. It compels us to ask: Is the promise of renewed industrial
strength and strategic clarity worth the potential for economic disruption and geopolitical fallout? As we
move forward in our discussion, let us embrace this dual perspective—recognizing that every pioneering
strategy carries both opportunity and uncertainty. This balance, this dynamic tension between bold
vision and cautious reflection, is at the heart of truly transformative economic thought.
Slide 4
Let’s now distill the essence of Stephen Miran’s paper, A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading
System. Here, Miran lays out a comprehensive blueprint that invites us to rethink the very foundations of
international trade. Allow me to guide you through the key elements:
1. Core Problem:
At the heart of the paper lies a critical question—what is fundamentally broken in our current
global trading system? Miran identifies deep-seated imbalances and outdated policies that
undermine fair competition and the sustainable growth of domestic industries.
2. Proposed U.S. Strategy:
In response, the paper outlines a bold U.S. strategy. This isn’t merely a collection of ideas; it’s a
calculated roadmap aimed at leveraging American economic power to redefine global trade,
restoring competitiveness and asserting strategic dominance.
3. Tariff Policy and Economic Impact:
Tariffs are not portrayed as blunt instruments here. Instead, Miran details how carefully
calibrated tariff policies can protect domestic industries while reshaping economic interactions
on the international stage. This approach is intended to recalibrate trade dynamics in favor of a
robust national economy.
4. Categorizing U.S. Trading Partners:
Recognizing that not all trading relationships are alike, the paper categorizes U.S. trading
partners. By understanding their distinct economic roles and behaviors, tailored strategies can
be developed to address specific challenges and leverage unique opportunities.
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5. Currency Policy and Reserve Asset Adjustments:
A crucial pillar of the strategy involves revisiting currency policies and adjusting reserve assets.
This component addresses how shifts in currency valuations can influence global financial
stability and help balance trade disparities.
6. Financial Market Consequences and Risks:
No transformative strategy is without risk. Miran is keenly aware of the potential
repercussions—market volatility, unintended economic disruptions, and broader financial
instability—that may result from such sweeping policy changes.
7. Long-Term Restructuring of International Trade Relations:
Ultimately, the paper envisions a long-term reordering of international trade. It’s a call to
reimagine our global economic relationships, striving for a system that is not only more balanced
and fair but also resilient in the face of emerging challenges.
Each of these points interlocks to form a unified, if audacious, strategy—a strategy that challenges
conventional paradigms and dares us to envision a future where the U.S. leads a reformed global trading
system. As we reflect on these components, consider the delicate balance between the promise of
renewed industrial strength and the potential for economic disruption. This dynamic tension between
risk and reward is what makes Miran’s analysis both compelling and provocative.
Now, let’s delve deeper into these themes as we continue our exploration of this transformative vision
for global trade.
Slide 5
Before we do that, let’s take a peek into the profile of our distinguished economist whose work
underpins much of our discussion—Stephan Miran. Imagine a scholar whose intellectual journey bridges
both the public and private sectors, an individual whose insights continue to shape the contours of
economic policy. Stephan earned his Bachelor of Arts in economics, philosophy, and mathematics from
Boston University in 2005—a rigorous foundation that prepared him to explore the complexities of our
economic world. Building on this, he pursued a Ph.D. in economics at Harvard University, where he had
the privilege of studying under the esteemed economist Martin Feldstein. This period of deep academic
inquiry not only sharpened his analytical prowess but also instilled in him a visionary approach to
economic challenges.
In December 2024, his expertise was acknowledged at the highest levels of government when Presidentelect Donald Trump nominated him to serve as the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers. This
pivotal role entrusted Stephan with advising the president on matters of economic policy, highlighting
the trust placed in his capacity to guide national strategy.
Stephan’s career is marked by a series of influential positions. He served as Senior Advisor for Economic
Policy at the U.S. Department of the Treasury during the pandemic recession, playing a key role in
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implementing critical fiscal support measures. Later, as Senior Strategist at Hudson Bay Capital
Management, he focused on global investment strategies—navigating the turbulent waters of
international finance with insight and precision. His entrepreneurial spirit shone through when he cofounded Amberwave Partners, an asset management firm that reflects his commitment to innovative
financial solutions. Moreover, as a Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute, he has engaged in in-depth
research and policy analysis that continues to inform public debate.
Throughout his career, Stephan Miran has contributed extensively to academic and public discourse on
fiscal and monetary policy, with his work appearing in respected publications such as the American
Economic Journal, The Wall Street Journal, and Bloomberg. His contributions remind us that the blend of
rigorous scholarship and real-world application is not only possible but essential for crafting policies that
endure.
Today, as we consider his strategic vision, let us appreciate the depth and breadth of his experience—a
testament to the power of thoughtful analysis in driving transformative change. Now, let’s continue our
exploration, drawing inspiration from his remarkable journey and the insights he offers for reimagining
our global economic landscape.
Slide 6
Let’s now delve into the core problem at the heart of Miran’s analysis: the persistent U.S. trade
imbalances exacerbated by an overvalued dollar.
The U.S. dollar, by virtue of its status as the global reserve currency, remains stubbornly overvalued. This
overvaluation isn’t just a minor economic quirk—it fundamentally distorts international trade. When the
dollar is high, American exports become more expensive and, as a result, less competitive on the global
stage. Conversely, imports are rendered cheaper, further tipping the balance away from domestic
production and contributing to the decline of American manufacturing.
Moreover, there is an inherent financial burden placed on the U.S. by the need to supply reserve assets
to the global economy. This obligation not only deepens trade deficits but also places additional strain on
domestic industries, compounding the challenges posed by an imbalanced trade framework.
In essence, this overvaluation sets off a cascade of adverse effects—raising export prices, undermining
the competitiveness of domestic goods, and intensifying trade deficits. As we consider these factors, we
are compelled to ask: How can such a system be reformed to restore equilibrium and bolster American
industry? It’s this very question that propels our exploration forward.
Slide 7
Introducing the proposed U.S. strategy—a bold vision poised to revolutionize the very structure of
international economic relations. Imagine, if you will, a unified framework that seamlessly integrates
tariffs, currency adjustments, and national security concerns into one coherent policy. This isn’t a
piecemeal approach; it’s a comprehensive strategy designed to do several things at once.
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First, by aligning these tools together, the framework seeks to boost government revenue through
targeted trade policies while simultaneously reducing inflationary pressures. It’s an approach that
doesn’t simply react to current imbalances but proactively sets the stage for a more balanced economic
future.
Central to this strategy is a major shift in international economic relations. Here, U.S. trading partners
aren’t viewed as a monolithic group. Instead, they are categorized based on their trade practices and
security alignment. This categorization is critical—it allows for differentiated policies. For instance, tariffs
can be used as a lever to compel countries to open up local industries or product markets that have been
closed off to U.S. corporations. In other words, if a country is determined to restrict market access, it will
face the full weight of economic penalties.
Consider the ambitious aspect of this strategy: it aims to pressure major trade partners, notably China,
and others, into making economic concessions that favor the U.S. economy. The plan outlines a largescale tariff policy—60% tariffs on China, and at least 10% tariffs on other nations. This is not a subtle
nudge; it’s a bold, decisive move intended to recalibrate global trade balances.
But, as with every bold strategy, there are inherent risks. Such sweeping measures come with significant
concerns: financial market volatility, the likelihood of retaliatory trade measures, and unintended
consequences for U.S. exporters, who might find themselves caught in the crossfire of these aggressive
policies.
In essence, this proposed strategy is both visionary and contentious—a deliberate attempt to use
economic policy as a tool for asserting national strength. It challenges us to consider not only the
potential for renewed industrial dominance but also the delicate balance between assertive policymaking and the unpredictable dynamics of global markets. As we reflect on this, ask yourself: How can
we harness these powerful instruments while mitigating the risks they inevitably bring? This is the
question at the heart of our ongoing discussion on reshaping international trade.
Slide 8
A key component of this transformative strategy takes center stage: the tariff policy and its anticipated
economic impact. Imagine a scenario where tariffs are not merely a defensive tool, but a strategic lever
designed to recalibrate the balance of global trade. The proposed strategy envisions devaluing the U.S.
dollar relative to the currencies of our trading partners. This deliberate adjustment is aimed at boosting
the competitiveness of American goods—making exports more attractive, drawing in vital investment,
and ultimately sparking the creation of manufacturing jobs across the country.
To put this into perspective, the proposal calls for imposing a hefty 60% tariff on China, coupled with at
least a 10% tariff on other nations. These significant rates are intended to not only increase government
revenue, but also serve as a powerful bargaining chip in trade negotiations. By leveraging such tariffs, the
U.S. could potentially compel its trading partners to reconsider and adjust their own trade policies.
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Another interesting aspect of this approach lies in its reliance on currency adjustments. The strategy
assumes that by allowing foreign currencies to devalue relative to the U.S. dollar, the inflationary
pressures that might normally arise from such tariffs can be effectively neutralized. In essence, this
would help maintain a stable economic environment even as the U.S. exercises a more assertive trade
policy.
In summary, the tariff policy here is not solely about protectionism. It is a multifaceted tool—designed to
reshape trade dynamics by increasing revenue, improving leverage in international negotiations, and
ultimately reinforcing the backbone of American industry. As we ponder this, we must ask: Can this
balanced use of tariffs and currency adjustments truly drive economic revitalization, or will the inherent
risks of market volatility and unintended consequences prove too formidable? This is the critical
challenge at the heart of the discussion on restructuring global trade.
Slide 9
Shifting focus to how U.S. trading partners are categorized under this strategy reveals a key element that
underscores the art of tailored diplomacy and economic leverage. Here, countries will be systematically
ranked based on three core criteria: trade fairness, currency policies, and national security alignment.
This nuanced approach recognizes that not all trading partners are created equal. For those allies and
nations that meet U.S. trade and security expectations, the strategy offers a path toward lower tariffs—a
kind of economic goodwill that rewards compliance and cooperation.
Conversely, nations that engage in unfair trade practices, or whose currency and security policies deviate
from established norms, could face higher tariffs and more severe economic consequences. This dual
approach not only incentivizes fair play on the global stage but also reinforces the importance of aligning
economic policies with broader national security interests.
Ultimately, by categorizing trading partners in this manner, the strategy creates a dynamic framework
where economic rewards and penalties are clearly defined. It challenges us to think about international
trade not as a static, one-size-fits-all relationship, but as a carefully calibrated system that rewards
responsible behavior and penalizes practices that undermine the balance of global trade.
As we move forward, let’s consider the broader implications of this classification system—how it might
reshape our international relationships and redefine what fair trade means in a rapidly evolving global
economy
Slide 10
Let’s turn our focus to an essential component of this strategy—currency policy and reserve asset
adjustments. Here, the U.S. is prepared to explore both unilateral and multilateral approaches to adjust
the value of foreign currencies, a move aimed at leveling the economic playing field.
Historically, we’ve seen the U.S. lean on multilateral cooperation to influence currency values—a strategy
rooted in building consensus among international partners. But in today’s rapidly shifting global
landscape, the strategy isn’t confined to this traditional path. It now contemplates unilateral
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interventions as well, a bold step designed to counteract the persistent undervaluation of foreign
currencies that can distort trade and disadvantage American industry.
Imagine a scenario where the U.S. can directly influence these currency dynamics—ensuring that our
exports remain competitive while protecting the domestic market from unfair external pressures. This
dual approach, blending the time-tested method of multilateral engagement with the decisiveness of
unilateral action, is intended to secure a more balanced economic environment.
In essence, by recalibrating currency values, the strategy aims to fortify the U.S. economy against the
adverse effects of undervaluation abroad. It’s a forward-thinking measure that recognizes the complexity
of global financial interdependencies and seeks to harness them in the service of national economic
resilience. As we continue our exploration, consider how such proactive policy adjustments might
reshape not only trade, but the very architecture of global economic stability.
Slide 11
Examining the financial market consequences and potential risks of this ambitious strategy is crucial to
understanding its broader implications. As we embark on this transformative path, it is essential to
acknowledge that any significant shift in policy comes with inherent uncertainties.
The strategy is built on the premise of rebalancing trade through tariff implementation and currency
adjustments. However, such measures are likely to introduce volatility into global financial markets. One
immediate risk is the possibility of retaliatory trade measures from foreign governments—a reaction that
could spark a tit-for-tat escalation in trade barriers, destabilizing the delicate balance of international
commerce.
Moreover, increased market uncertainty is a real concern. As investors navigate these turbulent waters,
global investment could be adversely affected, with confidence shaken and capital flows disrupted. This
uncertainty is not just a fleeting inconvenience; it could have lasting implications for economic stability
worldwide.
Anothersignificant risk lies with U.S. exporters. In a landscape of higher tariffs and more restrictive
foreign trade policies, these businesses may face higher production costs and formidable trade barriers.
Such challenges could undermine their competitiveness on the global stage—an outcome that must be
carefully managed.
In summary, while the proposed strategy aims to reconfigure the global trading system in favor of U.S.
economic interests, it also brings with it the potential for market volatility, retaliatory actions, and
unintended setbacks for domestic exporters. As we reflect on these risks, we must ask ourselves: How
can we strike the right balance between bold economic transformation and the prudent management of
its consequences? This is the challenge at the heart of reimagining our approach to international trade.
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Slide 12
Looking ahead to the long-term vision reveals a transformative blueprint for restructuring international
trade relations. This strategy is not merely about short-term adjustments; it envisions a fundamental
shift in how global economic relationships are conceived and managed.
Firstly, the strategy seeks to tie trade policies explicitly to national security and economic self-sufficiency.
Imagine a world where every trade decision is evaluated not just on market metrics, but on how it
contributes to the overall resilience and security of our nation. In this new paradigm, economic policy
becomes a tool for safeguarding national interests and promoting sustainable growth.
Secondly, the strategy positions the U.S. to extract greater financial contributions from its trading
partners. By sharing the burden of providing reserve assets, it creates a more balanced and equitable
framework for international finance. This means that our trading partners will contribute more
significantly to the stability of the global financial system—a shift that promises not only to ease our
economic burdens but also to foster a more collaborative global economic order.
Ultimately, the vision is to boost U.S. manufacturing competitiveness without sacrificing the dollar’s
revered status as the global reserve currency. It’s an ambitious balancing act: on one side, strengthening
our industrial base, and on the other, maintaining the stability and influence that comes from having the
world’s most trusted currency.
In essence, this long-term restructuring is a call to reimagine our place in the world. It challenges us to
integrate security, equity, and economic resilience into the very fabric of international trade. As we
contemplate this transformative vision, let us ask ourselves: How can such a reformed global trade
architecture serve not only our national interests but also contribute to a more stable and just global
economic order? This is the promise—and the profound challenge—of rethinking international trade in
the 21st century.
Slide 13
Now, as we step back and assess the overall strategy presented in A User’s Guide to Restructuring the
Global Trading System, we find ourselves face-to-face with an approach that is both bold and aggressive
in its ambition. This is not a strategy for the timid; it is an assertive reimagining of the global economic
order—one that seeks to tilt the balance of power in favor of the United States.
At its core, this strategy leverages a potent mix of tariffs, deliberate currency manipulation, and securitybased trade policies. These are not isolated tools but interconnected levers, each designed to drive
home the vision of a restructured global system—one where American economic interests are prioritized
above all else.
The aggressive use of tariffs, combined with calculated adjustments in currency values, creates a
dynamic framework intended to protect and bolster domestic industries. Simultaneously, by embedding
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national security considerations into trade policy, this strategy positions the U.S. to not only dictate
terms in economic exchanges but also to safeguard its geopolitical interests.
In essence, this is a comprehensive, no-holds-barred approach—a strategy that challenges traditional
trade paradigms by advocating for a radical shift in how international economic relations are managed. It
dares to ask: Can we reengineer the global trading system to better serve our national interests while
confronting the uncertainties of an interconnected world?
As we assess this proposition, it is essential to recognize both its transformative potential and the
significant risks it carries. This is a strategy that demands careful scrutiny, urging us to balance the
promise of renewed industrial strength with the challenges inherent in reshaping the global economic
landscape. Let us now delve deeper into what these bold measures might mean for the future of
international trade and for our own economic destiny.
Exploring how this proposed strategy benefits the United States reveals potential advantages intricately
woven into both economic policy and national security.
First, consider the prospect of increased revenue for the U.S. Treasury. With the strategic imposition of
tariffs, the government stands to generate significant revenue. This influx of funds isn’t just about
balancing budgets—it’s about strengthening the entire U.S. economy by offsetting deficits and providing
new resources for investment in critical domestic sectors.
Next, we have the opportunity to rebalance trade in favor of the U.S. Imagine a scenario where, through
coordinated currency adjustments, U.S. goods regain their competitive edge on the global stage. As
foreign currencies adjust, our exports become more attractive and our domestic industries find new
vigor in the international marketplace.
Another key benefit lies in the leverage this strategy affords over our trade partners. By using tariffs as a
bargaining tool, the U.S. can press for fairer trade agreements. This leverage could be especially effective
in curbing practices such as intellectual property theft and other unfair trade measures—a significant
concern in our dealings with countries like China.
Furthermore, the strategy is designed to strengthen national security through economic means. By
aligning trade policies with national security objectives, it ensures that critical industries—such as steel
and semiconductors—remain under U.S. control. In this way, economic policy is not isolated from our
broader security interests; rather, it serves as a bulwark against vulnerabilities in key sectors.
Lastly, consider the potential for job creation in manufacturing. By discouraging imports and incentivizing
domestic production, this policy could spark a resurgence in U.S. manufacturing jobs, particularly in
industries that are vital to our national economic health.
In essence, the proposed strategy is designed not only to recalibrate international trade dynamics but
also to fortify the U.S. economy from multiple angles—through revenue generation, enhanced trade
competitiveness, increased bargaining power, strengthened national security, and robust job creation. As
we reflect on these benefits, it becomes clear that this is a comprehensive approach aimed at securing a
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prosperous future for America. Let’s now move forward and consider how these advantages can reshape
our economic future.
Slide 15 – 16
Examining the potential weaknesses in this proposed strategy reveals a candid assessment of the
challenges beneath its bold ambitions.
First, we must acknowledge the risk of retaliatory tariffs. In this dynamic arena of global trade, nations—
especially formidable players like China and the European Union—might respond by imposing countertariffs on U.S. exports. This retaliatory measure could have a ripple effect, harming American businesses
that depend on access to global markets.
Next, consider the specter of market volatility and investor uncertainty. Rapid, sweeping changes to
trade policies, coupled with potential currency devaluations, could stir financial instability. Such
uncertainty might prompt capital flight, further destabilizing an already delicate economic balance.
Then, we face the challenge of inflationary risks. While the strategy banks on foreign currency
devaluations to offset rising prices, real-world currency reactions are notoriously unpredictable. In
practice, higher import costs could translate into increased consumer prices, exerting pressure on
households and the broader economy.
Furthermore, there is a significant impact on U.S. exporters to consider. If financial markets react
negatively—potentially causing the dollar to strengthen—U.S. exports could become even less
competitive, undermining the very industries this strategy seeks to protect.
Another key concern is the potential strain on international relations. Aggressive economic maneuvers
might drive our traditional allies toward alternative economic alliances, such as China’s Belt and Road
Initiative. This shift could erode long-standing alliances and reduce cooperation on critical global security
and economic issues.
Lastly, perhaps the most profound risk is the possible loss of the U.S. dollar’s reserve currency status. If
the U.S. is seen as aggressively manipulating its currency and imposing adverse conditions on its trading
partners, we might witness the emergence of alternative global financial systems—potentially led by
China—that could fundamentally alter the global economic order.
In essence, while the proposed strategy is designed to recalibrate our economic future, it is not without
significant risks. These challenges serve as a sober reminder that any transformative policy must balance
bold innovation with prudent risk management. As we reflect on these weaknesses, let us ask ourselves:
Can the potential benefits truly outweigh the risks, or will the unintended consequences undermine the
very goals we seek to achieve? This is the critical tension at the heart of rethinking our approach to
global trade.
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Closing
As we draw this exploration to a close, I invite you to reflect on the dual nature of bold ambition and
cautious stewardship. The strategy we’ve examined challenges us to reimagine global trade—a call to
transform risk into opportunity and uncertainty into action. Ask yourself: Are we ready to shape an
economic future where American innovation and security redefine the rules of the game?
This is not a moment for passive observation but for active engagement. Let us harness our collective
insight, debate with vigor, and take decisive steps toward a future where our policies empower industry,
fortify our alliances, and inspire lasting progress. The time for thoughtful, courageous action is now.
