By David Bradshaw, Idea Factory Press
Dec 28, 2006
The commodity supercycle has swept gold prices to double since 2001/> -- but this is just the kickoff say the experts.
Gold hit $725/oz. in 2006, then corrected under $600/oz. before beginning to rise again! How high will this bull market in "real money" and commodities drive gold prices over the next 5 to 15 years? Get ready to be shocked.
Between 2001-2006 many analysts have jumped onto the $1,000/oz. plus gold bandwagon -- most of whom were not considered "gold bugs" in the past.
Here's a list of nearly three dozen prominent authors and gold experts already on the record forcasting four-digit gold prices to arrive in the years ahead. Their combined gold price expectation for a gold peak averages $2,195/oz.!
Count for yourself the many reasons for owning gold, which these experts suggest will together drive gold prices sky high. I've listed two dozen reason at the conclusion.
LOUISE YAMADA, Managing Director -- Yamada Technical Research Advisors LLC
"Gold is the purest play against the dollar. I see gold surpassing $730 next year (2007) on its way to $3,000 within a decade. Gold is probably the most straightforward investment to go with in this environment because of its consistent inverse relationship to the dollar.Other countries are trying to diversify their dollar holdings. They're buying gold and anything they can to get out of the dollar." Bloomberg, 12/11/06
PHILIP MANDUCA, Managing Director -- Titanium Capital Ltd.
"Gold is still by far the optimal choice for most investors to play. It's been successful in '04, '05 and '06. Gold will be through $1,000 in the next 18 months." -Bloomberg, 11-29-06
JULIAN PHILLIPS, Analyst -- GoldForecaster.com
"We would not be surprised to see $1,000-plus gold from sometime in 2007 at the earliest to 2009 at the latest. Physical demand is now being added to by the turnaround in hedge funds' change of heart to the upside. The potential oil shortage and more-than-likely ruptures in the stability of the global-money system when the dollar starts to suppurate." -Marketwatch, 11-3-06
DR. CLIVE ROFFEY, Elliot Wave Theory Analyst/Publisher -- Gold Action
"I believe that the current correction is a more likely to be a minor before a move to well above the previous $720 peak, probably above $800. When the minor correction should occur leading to a wave five that will eventually peak well above $1,000 before we hit the next major correction." -321gold, 10-6-06.
HOWARD RUFF, Editor -- The Ruff Times
"Gold and silver are now early in a historic bull market that will dwarf the 500-1700% profits we made in the '70s. Gold will hit at least $2,172 and $100 silver is inevitable. Investment vehicles to avoid: Stocks, bonds, fixed-return investments like utilities, REITs, residential real estate, ARMS (adjustable rate mortgages). Investment winners in bull markets: Gold, silver, copper and other base metals, uranium. The most powerful, completely essential factor affecting gold is monetary inflation. The most compelling force affecting silver today is the supply/demand equation." -Marketwatch, 8-24-06
DR. DAVID DAVIS, Senior Gold Analyst -- Credit Suisse Standard Securities
"Between 2007 and 2010, supply-and-demand dynamics will undergo irreversible change, caused by a decline in global mine and official sector supply and increased demand from China and the investment community. We still see a gold price of $700/oz, $800/oz and $1,200/oz by 2008, 2010, and 2015 respectively." -Resource Investor, 8-4-06
ROBERT KIYOSAKI, Author -- Rich Dad
"I still think gold will go to $1,500 an ounce. I'm betting against the U.S. dollar. Gold is a hedge against U.S. government mismanagement. My family members have a tradition of saving all their spare change for months on end and then trading all the coins in for a single gold coin." -Washington Post, 6/20/06
STEPHEN LEEB, Author -- The Coming Economic Collapse
"Gold took a hit last week, falling 5.7%. As with other commodities, gold was perhaps due for a correction and responded to Bernanke’s tougher words. We could see it drift a little lower – between $580 and $600. But this downside is paltry compared to the upside potential for gold. Gold could reach a price many times higher than it’s at today, regardless of whether inflation or deflation becomes the problem. So we remain buyers of gold along with energy and our low-risk hedges." The Complete Investor -6-12-06
HARRY SCHULTZ, Analyst -- International Harry Schultz Letter
"My view has always been: current governments (which are bank-owned) won't voluntarily return to a gold standard, with its discipline on money creation. But, when the price roars to, say $1,600, they'll quite possibly be forced to do so, to appease a clamor for sound money - e.g. Bretton Woods II. The price could go to $2,000 while they debate new rules. Washington insiders would see it as their last chance to save the US dollar as a reserve currency. If they don't, the euro, yen or yuan could make a bid for that status ... If no rules are made at $1,600, gold could keep climbing till they do. Hello $3,000." -MW, 6-5-06
PAUL MYLCHREEST, Analyst -- Cheuvreux Investment
"We also see the possibility of a spike to $2,000 or higher, if the story on diminished central bank gold reserves becomes widely accepted, if central banks in countries with large US dollar holdings compete to buy gold and diversify forex reserves away from dollars, and if the U.S. economy slides into either high rates of inflation or deflation." -Mineweb, 2-6-06.
JIM CRAMER, Founder -- Thestreet.com, Host -- Mad Money, Real Money
"Gold could reach $1,000 if the Chinese stop buying our paper. Once the levee to the Treasuries breaks, the easy high ground worth gaining will be gold. Any portfolio designed to counter government-mandated inflation has to be bedrocked in gold" -New York magazine, Oct. 10, 2005
JAMES TURK, Founder -- Goldmoney.com
"Gold is going much higher, and the $8,000 [per ounce] I mentioned a couple of years ago is probably as good a target as any. There are two aspects to what's driving the gold price: First, there is strong physical demand around the world. When gold crossed the $500-an-ounce level, people started buying gold in anticipation of monetary problems. Second, the physical demand for gold is causing a huge problem for the gold shorts. There has been a large gold carry trade in place. It is very possible gold could have a massive spike in the next six to 12 months to as high as $2,000, driven by these factors." "GOLD MINE" -Barrons, 5/29/06
JIM ROGERS, Author/Adventurer -- Hot Commodities (former George Soros partner)
"Mr. Rogers, who foresaw the start of a commodity rally in 1999, told Bloomberg the boom in energy and raw material prices will endure, driving gold to a record $1,000 an ounce. The shortest bull market for commodities lasted 15 years, the longest 23 years, so if history is any guide, they've got a long way to go. This is not a bubble." -Bloomberg, 4-19-06
RICHARD RUSSELL, Editor -- Dow Theory Letters
"Gold is now being accepted as the fourth currency along with the dollar, the euro and the yen. But there is a difference. Gold is also being recognized as the tangible currency and the ONLY SAFE currency. That gold pays no interest -- but is still at an 25-year high in terms of dollars -- is a testament to its value and safety in the eyes of sophisticated investors." Dowtheoryletters.com
J. TAYLOR, Editor -- J. Taylor's Gold and Technology Stocks
"This is a different gold bull market and most bullish of all is that fact that this is still a stealth bull market. The voice of the global market is just starting to express a declining confidence in the dollar but with a coverage of only 1.7% [in U.S. gold reserves] at close to $700/oz., I believe we are still in the very early stages of a major gold bull market. We have a long, long ways to go toward $3,000 and beyond." -Howestreet.com
JOHN HATHAWAY, Portfolio Manager -- Tocqueville Gold Fund
"Gold is in a bull-market trend, and there are a lot of reasons for that, and we will see higher prices. People shouldn't be surprised to see gold trade in the four digits." -Barrons ... "In truth, the price of gold at $600 is no big deal. In 1980 dollars, it is only $300. If prior highs mean anything, a target of $1700 in today’s dollars is what investors should be thinking about. Investors should worry less about whether this particular moment is a good or bad entry point and ponder the implications of sailing through uncharted waters without a lifeboat." -Tocqueville.com
MARC FABER, Author -- Tommorrow's Gold
"A vicious drop in the Dow coupled with a vicious rise in gold, possibly pushing gold to an astounding $2,000, $3,000 or even $6,000. Commodities are an asset class for the first time in history." Marketwatch.com
BILL BONNER, Author/Editor -- Daily Reckoning
"When the price of gold goes over $1,000, the bull market will be in its bubble phase. The price may go far higher - depending on what else is going on in the economy and the markets. But this will be a time to be careful...when we stop adding to our positions and begin to reduce them. Gold is now cheap and almost hidden. People are buying it for the right reason: because it is cheap. We see signs, though, that gold is coming out of the closet and the financial press is beginning to notice." Dailyreckoning.com
CRAIG R. SMITH, Author/CEO -- Swiss America
"Gold is clearly headed toward $1,000/oz. and is still a great bargain near $700/oz! Gold recently jumped over $700, and is overdue for a price correction -- which is the sure sign of a healthy bull market -- offering yet another opportunity to buy the dips in this ongoing secular bull market." -CNBC Squawk Box
Lord WILLIAM REES-MOGG, Author & Economist
"I expect gold to reach $1,000 an ounce in the foreseeable future. The price of gold is linked to the price of oil and to the movements of the dollar... oil is probably headed towards $100 a barrel. If there is any shooting in Iran, prices will go through the roof. That, however, is one reason for thinking that there may not be any attack on Iran. The world’s oil supply cannot afford it." -Money Week
ROBERT MCEWEN, CEO -- U.S. Gold Corp.
"Gold prices may reach $2,000 an ounce by 2010 on demand for an alternative to currencies. You have much more money than there is gold, and as people see their currencies falling relative to gold, they're going to be saying `Maybe I should have some of this'." -Bloomberg
PHILLIP GOTTHEFF, President/Commodities Analyst -- Equidex Inc.
"The gold market knows inflation is already here ... which helps explain the hysterical surge in prices in 2006... ETFs have expanded the metals market to now include institutional investors... With Goldman Saks forecasting $100+ oil I think we could see $1,000-1,500 gold easily... Why hoard? Because investors are afraid of paper. If we were to try to monetize our paper with gold the price would be in the $10,000/oz. - $20,000/oz. range." -CNBC "$1,000 gold debate" 5-9-06
JOHN PERSON/>, President -- National Futures Advisory Services
"As more and more investors start allocating more resources in gold, we could see $800 and as high as $1,000 by year's end./> All the elements are in place for such a move, and it would not be unrealistic to achieve in a relatively short period of time." -Marketwatch.com
KEVIN KERR, Commentator/Author -- Marketwatch.com
"Golden Opportunity: The case for $1,000 an ounce... If your thing is to hold the actual gold in your hand then numismatics (coins) or bullion are the way to go." -Marketwatch.com
JOHN EMBRY, Chief Investment Strategist -- Sprott Asset Management
"Gold will hit at least $800 per ounce as paper money is going to hell in a handcart. Even a $1,000/oz gold price may be conservative." -MineWeb.com
PIERRE LASSONDE, President -- Newmont Mining Corp.
"The price of bullion may exceed $1,000 (U.S.) an ounce within five to seven years as demand growth driven by Asia outstrips global supply." Globeandmail
BILL MURPHY, Founder -- GATA.org, Lemetropolecafe.com
"What we are seeing is the result of years and years of a gold price suppression scheme BLOWING UP! Gold is moving up because the crooks have lost control! GOLD is going to go to $3,000/oz as more geopolitical problems arise." -GoldRush21
ROSS NORMAN, TheBullionDesk.com
"Yes, I do think we will be in the $700s perhaps late in the second quarter, or perhaps the third quarter of 2006 - the market seems incredibly robust both in terms of external factors like the correlation with the oil market that we’re still underperforming against - if the ratio held with that we’d be at about $1,000 an ounce now. I think it’s gaining strength from the ETFs and more corporate and pension money coming into the market on a regular day by day basis - all this conspires to make one believe that the market has got plenty of strength, that it’s “stronger for longer” as they say." -Thebulliondesk.com
ADAM HAMILTON, CPA -- Zeal Intelligence
"If our current gold rally truly unfolds into a Great Gold Rally, $1000 gold is merely the first stage. A gold bubble, which will probably ultimately happen as a way to climax the coming gold mania maybe five to seven years out, could easily launch gold above $5000 per ounce. The actual top of a new gold bubble at the final pinnacle of another Great Gold Rally could touch $6000+ per ounce!" -Zeallc.com
EMANUEL BALARIE, Senior Market Strategist -- Wisdom Financial
"I think gold prices will eventually shatter even my own bullish expectations of $1,000/oz. If you have not entered the gold market, waiting for an opportune time might be too late. Keep in mind that regardless of what the media is telling you, gold is still cheap at these levels." -CNBC Squawk on the Street
NICK MOORE, Chief Metal Analyst -- ABN Amro
"$1 000 gold is by no means an outrageous forecast. It's a cocktail of positive stimuli for gold, you get the spillover of people buying into commodities, whether its copper, aluminum, soft commodities or precious metals. People are moving there." - Fin24.com
PAUL VAN EEDEN, Managing Partner -- Cranberry Capital LLC
"While my model indicates gold should be fairly valued at $900, there's no reason to believe that gold wouldn't dramatically overshoot that mark. And if 1979 to 1980 is anything to go by, it could exceed several thousand dollars per ounce." -Bloomberg
JON NADLER, Investment Products Analyst -- Kitco
"Gold prices actually started their life at $35 per ounce in the early 1970s. From there, it went to $850-$875 -- a twenty-five-times-over move. Gold began its latest move up at $252, so prices at $6,250 can't be ruled out either, in terms of magnitude of the move." -Marketwatch.com
The list is growing weekly, email us your favorite expert quote on $1,000 plus gold and we'll post them in this space.
Other major analysts bullish on $700-$850 gold:
Citigroup's Metal Analyst forecasts that gold will test $700 per ounce by the end of 2006 and reach gold’s historic highs of $850 per ounce in 2007-2008.
J.P. Morgan's senior analyst forecast that gold may reach $800 per ounce sometime in 2007.
Goldman Sachs says gold may average $785 an ounce in 2007.
GFMS Ltd., one of the foremost precious metals consultancy, stated investor buying over the last quarter of 2006 "could drive the gold price back through the $700-mark."
Baker Steel Capital Managers stated that gold prices may reach $700 per ounce by the end of 2006 and surpass the record high of $850 high set in January 1980.
24 Reasons to Own Gold… NOW!
1. Gold is still by far the optimal choice for most investors
2. Likely ruptures in the stability of the global-money system
3. $625+ gold prices will eventually peak well above $1,000
4. The most powerful factor affecting gold is monetary inflation
5. 2007 gold supply/demand dynamics: irreversible changes
6. Gold's downside risk is paltry compared to the upside potential
7. Some insiders see gold saving the US dollar as reserve currency
8. Central banks buy gold to diversify reserves away from dollars
9. Portfolios designed to hedge inflation must be bedrocked in gold
10. Shortest commodity bull market is 15 yrs, the longest 23 yrs
11. Gold now accepted as fourth global currency (with $, Eu, Y.)
12. Most bullish of all: the fact this is still a stealth gold bull market
13. Investors should worry less about good/bad gold entry points
14. Commodities now an asset class for the first time in history
15. Gold is coming out of the closet and the press is taking notice
16. Price corrections are a sign of a healthy bull market, buy dips
17. If there is any shooting in Iran, gold/oil will go through the roof
18. Hard currencies (gold) boom as people notice currencies fall
19. Gold market knows inflation already here, explaining 2006 surge
20. More and more investors allocating more resources into gold
21. Gold you hold in your hand: Numismatic coins or bullion best
22. Gold gaining strength from ETFs, corporate and pension money
23. A gold bubble 5-7 years out could launch gold above $5,000/oz.
24. Regardless of what the media says, gold prices are still cheap
