[股典] How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market, Nicolas Darvas

周末稍微有一点空,写一点读书的观感。我以前提过有一些好书想和大家分享。今天先谈谈第一本书:How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market, Nicolas Darvas。

行家肯定会说,好书太多了,为什么单要从这一本开始呢?其实这很重要。我觉得对如市不久的新手,看这本书太有帮助了。我真但愿当年在我的第一次Wipe Out之前,能有幸读到这本书。(不知道这里有多少人记得1995年Datek的5秒钟execution保证,让我误入了Daytrading。以后有时间再谈当年的臭事吧。)

言归正传,为什么这本书重要呢?这么说吧,我觉得这本书更因该叫做:The Mistakes I Made Before I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market。新手们通常都注重在股市怎么挣钱,而往往忽略了其实最重要的是争取尽量不亏钱,因为只要不亏就能赚。

现讲一讲比较不重要的,但大家首先都会注意的。Nicolas的系统很简单,叫做Darvas Box。有些软件上有。其实是一种粗略的Trend Following系统。好处是他只要Daily Data,就可以进行(这样他在世界各地表演的时候也可以进行。Nicolas是一个职业Ballroom Dancer)。要注意他操作的Money Management实际上风险很大,并不可取。

这本书最好的就是在讲他犯过的各种错误了。书写的很有趣,也极易读。各种Nicolas试过,但失败了的“方法”包括:

* Tips and rumors, 这有点象各种论坛上的好多帖子,
* Subion to market newsletters, 就是要收钱的那种,
* Broker advice, 现在都用网上交易,这种不多了,
* Stock market books, 书还是有用的,但不能读死了,
* Annual reports and fundamentals, 当时还没有Buffet, 但Nicolas说的并不全错, 这里有一个了解自己的问题(也很重要,以后有时间再谈),
* OTC stocks, 还不如直接去拉斯韦加斯赌,
* Insider trading, 他说的那一种现在很少了,
* Research rating, 这个在2000年后我们都知道。

他最终的方法是95% Trend Following + 5% Fundamental。前面提了,不多讲了。对照一下这些Nicolas试了行不通的,我希望对大家能有所借鉴。这是我首先诚心推荐这本书的原因。

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