为什么不看好 GOOG 和 TSL

GOOG  在 Internet search/Ad  领域里无疑是大哥大。它的地位无人挑战，且会长期的保持下去。

但它的成功，已经开始让它走向反面，而忽视了它的核心事业 -搜索引擎和相关的广告业。
最近的例子：  Check out  交易结算系统，和 Google Phone.

1) Check out  交易结算系统, 与 Google 的核心事业完全无关，反而有害。 因为从一开始就受到Google 最大的用户 Ebay 的质疑，担心是针对EBay 的 PayPal. 损害了合作关系。 Google 还是要坚持开发，两年来，GOOGLE 暴露出了在非核心事业软件开发方面的无能。Check Out system 自开始使用以来，错误百出，尽管提供免费服务，（Offer one year free charge service), 由于错误太多，商家和用户还是怨声载道。 也得罪了EBAY.  并一度宣布不使用Google search engine.  这是GOOGLE 的策略失败。

2)  Google Phone  is anothor stupid move。  Google search engine has much higher profit margin, once it start to make hardware, and operation system on the phone, it will drug down it's profit margin noticeablely.  

This will also hurt the partnership with AAPL ( iPhone exclusively use Google engine and YouTube contents),  and next iPhone may not exclusively use Google search engine, it may open to Yahoo or even its long time enemy Microsoft for search service. At least upon user's choice.  I really don't think gPhone can compete wit Iphone.

Mobile phone is very different from PC world and more complex than PC.  Despite Google's chance to develop a successful operation system on Mobile Phone,  no one can dominate operation system on the phone. There are more than 10 OS' currently  be used. To name a few: symbian, linux, newton, windows mobile, and most recently Mac OS X from iPhone. It is already a very crowdy battle field.  Besides, Google need not only  to develop a mobile OS, but also need to maintain it. This increase a lot cost to draw from Google's cash flow and resource pool.  The gain is negtive.  Google can provide mobile search service without deveolp it's own operation system and phone.  Just like what it did on PC world. And search engine maintainance is a lot less.

Google should put more resources in YouTube utilization and new search engine in graphic AD market..(Compare to text AD it donimated.)   Turn YouTube as its new  cash cow.  We did not see any progress in these area after one year acquisition of YouTube.  Google should focus on it's core business and do what it know and good at. It just did the opposite of it, do what it does not know and not good at.

Does Google lose it's direction?  At least, it lost the focus on it's core business. It may not reflect in price immediatly, but it will over the long run.  When the great company become too ego, and too many believes to itself,  think it can do everything, it is the start point to go the opposite of itself.
 
3)  Recent subprime meltdown hurts Google AD business.  Countrywide Bank is in top 10 list of Google user. AHM which already broke, was in top 20 list of Google user.  It has more than a dozen companies from mortgages, and banks in Google top 50 user list.

So just take Google as trading vehicle, but not for long term investment. It is vulnerable in down market.

TSL:    It is also a trading  vehicle.  Last qtr was a great qtr, but it has fuzzing outlook. Besides it does not has a solid oversea customer base as STP. Almost all customers are domestic based. It is a momentum stock, currently in long term, middle term down trend. It is vulnerable in down market.