The problem with current market is that, despite the condition was created because of the lack of risk control by financial institutions, people trades like the market was not at risk. This was amplely displayed in the last Friday's action, the market opened high against the backdrop of Thursday's big spike of volatility, even though the market closed slightly lower, the VIX actually dropped --- it is just unbelievable.Based on the oversee market, tomorrow probably will be a painful day for the bull if the convention holds. Now, here is the question, if the market dropped 500 points (4+%), will you buy at the end of the day in the hope to catch a bounce Wednesday ?Well, Fortunately or unfortunately, I will be in a whole day meeting tomorrow, so, I can be excused from that question. However, even if I can participate, I probably will not haste to action. 1). You do not know where the bottom is until probably after the fact.2). You do not need to catch the absolute bottom to make money.3). In this kind of the environment, a down day proabably beget yet more sellings --- that is the fear ...If the market "bottomed" :), what could benefit the most in the successive rebound (however short or shallow it could be )? Will it be financial, which are beaten down badly? or the health care sectors that held relatively well?In the short term, If I bet rebound, I probably will still avoid financials.. my best bet will be in health care, and technology, which seems like the earning held relatively well.What about if the market will go down even further, will the short be ? I believe the emerging market will suffer even more than developed market. also, the energy sector should suffer if the economy is in recession.Anyways, have a good sleep. I will have to endure a whole day meeting but those who will be out there, just be careful.
