下周股市展望 。。。

方显英雄本色-- 股市投资探讨
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 这周股市终于以三大指数平均跌幅 -4.1% 作收。 虽然不是五天都跌,但 Dow & S&P 500 五天里四天收红,(和前文预测的连跌五天很接近)揭示出熊市的强劲和反弹的疲弱。本周的后两天,Tech 成为反弹的新板块,并领军展开牛熊的激烈争夺。但感觉仍缺乏后劲。Tech 缺了半导体反弹就不会持久。 而一季度传统上是半导体最弱的季度。最近的 SEMI book to bill ratio 只有0.89 (大于一为扩张,小于一,是收缩)。CSCO 的 b2b 也呈现收缩。

     值得注意的是在过去两周领涨的 Financial,  Banks,  Home Builder, Retail 板块都失去了势头. Financial 和 Home Builder  本周跌幅达 10%。尤其是 Finacials 如不能维持势头,将使反弹夭折。  

从TA 看, S&P 500 已经连续五周收在 80 周平均移动线以下,这曾经是过去五年牛市的长期支撑线。今天收盘 S&P 又一次破了 160 周平均移动线以下。(位于 1336)这是很危险的信号。 2001年的熊市就是在160 周平均移动线破位后,触发了S&P 随后的12 个月中狂跌 -40% 

下周市场很可能恢复跌势,继续下探一月的低点。这一波下跌无论从时间上和空间上都还没有达到点位。周一,周二大盘也许会继续牛熊的激烈争夺战。随后的经济消息会是影响大盘走向的重要因素。尤其是周四 Bernake 在参院经济委员会的讲话。 下周一,香港,上海,和韩国股市在春节后重开,很可能在周一或周二会暴跌,所产生的回波造成对美国股市的卖压。OE 周会使股市波动更大。

从更长一点的时间看,这次熊市的恢复,更可能是“U" 字型恢复。市场需要时间恢复创伤。在今后两个月中,大盘还会多次探底,并很可能创新低。对此,要有充分的准备,才能遇事不惊,抓住机会。

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