It has been an uphill battle for the Bull for quite some time, yet, reality proved that we are still too optimistics, we thought the "low" has been reached, if we cannot make near term highs, at least, we can hold at the current level. and boy, are we in for a surprise !If people were still in disaggrement yesterday about whether we will get a recession, today, it is clear that we will have at least one quarter of negative growth, and for sure, there will be more converts to the recession camp with the time goes back.the credit issue just won't go away, there are reports about european banks need raise cash, there are reports that libor rate has widen against treasure rate. it looks like this credit issue, according to some pundits, will be with us for a long time.It is also the time when major indexes are up against 20/50 day's MA as we noted yesterday, you can call it accidental, but how can you explain that people ignore Friday's job number but react so negatively today towards ISM report. Now that, we know market cannot make it, it is broken. again, prepare for DJI back to 12000 level.So, what we do.. Defense. If you are not sure what to do then cash is the king. Other than some hard assets like agriculture commodities (DBA for instance), it probably is wise to not go "long" until market calm down a littleThe bond rise today (tlt). the market has priced in 100% 50 bps cut when FED meet on March, so, you can expect dollar to fail. So, gold could be a play. Normally, any dollar denominated assets should rise for the same reason as gold, but because the market anticipate the less consumption of the oil, so, energy may not be a good place to bet.Anyways, just be careful out there and happy chinese new years.
