下一个重灾区就是制造业(特别是auto),还有零售业

早说过,GM,FORD肯定会有一个破产.JC PENNY也够呛...

今天消息出来了.General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) lost 31% Thursday and Ford Motor (F, Fortune 500) fell 21% on reports that auto sales will hit recession levels this year and get worse in \'09. In response, S&P put GM and Ford\'s debt ratings on CreditWatch with a negative outlook.

With a negative outlook rating,GM/FORD就更借不到loan了.没有钱只有裁员,减产,关闭工厂.FED也不会bailout这种落后产业.只有破产一条路.

Auto industry的命门不是把工厂转移到中国,outsource这种昏话,而是大美帝国的Union system.Union会把这些钢铁猛兽活活拖死....凡是有Union memebers的地方成本就高...Union的原则是要死大家一起死.不会退让的.

Financials只是隧道的入口...Investor Banks -> Commercial Banks, hedge funds -> credit market -> housing market -> Industries -> Retails -> employment -> 然后又是一个轮回...

等从tunnel里出来了,俺们也就该退休了.