Trading Diary (March 04, 2009) --- Bee Gees "Staying Alive"
Overnight, I saw ytd 4.6% decline in S&P and 4.2% drop in DOW has thus far been followed by only modest corrective gains in
In my own view, the guessing game now among the OECD economist and investors is how worst the 1Q09 will be. The recent forecasts seem likely to shift for the OECD from -0.4% in 2009 to something worst since 1946. This has led to a credit spread widening with EUHY at 1141bp and Itxx Asia HY at 1539, new highs in 3 months. As I discussed, the weakness of credits and equities have driven safe-haven trade in FX– namely the USD, especially the notable gain of USDJPY…But I think the most depressed thing I see is gold down $25 even in the face of more talk about govt action & fiscal spending but less belief that actions will work quickly or well…Next game is roll over to ECB and BOE for that challenge …In sum, I will not betting on the roll-over in equities as I have the Bee Gees songs in mind -- "Ah, ha, ha, ha, stayin’ alive, stayin’ alive"
Local market will likely see further weakness repeated following US. One thing is for sure is HSBC is a firm darling in local investors as ytd 5HK managed to trade up after 7% lower in
Overseas Market Reviews
Global equity prices dipped another 0.8% O/N, down 19% ytd and 55% from Oct2007. Regionally, stocks fell 1.7% in EU, and -0.7% in
