12/09 大市小结

今天看S&P的技术参数,S&P还是处于下降趋势中,严格来讲今天是昨天下跌的反弹.但是可以确定的是市场在1090的位置阻力很大.昨天我将市场比较可能出现的走势做了一些展开,目前看来,深度调整的可能是最小的.结合OE周和圣诞节假期的低成交量,大幅下调出现的可能性低.但也有可能现快速向50日线接近,然后快速回升的可能.

昨天的小结
12/08 大市小结 2009-12-08 22:21:27

今日S&P-1.03%,收在1091.94. 20日线1100, 50日线1080, 100日线1050, 200日线950

下跌深度可能性有三种:

(1)艾略特五波后的阶段深度调整:从昨天向下调整10到15个交易日,下调幅度依此向1080,1050,甚至到达1030.
设想操作:在接下来的3个交易日里持50%的空仓.另外50%的资金用于对空仓进行波段交易.

(2)月波段的中幅调整:从12月3日开始总长度为8-10个交易日,向下调整4%到5%,从1110向下,下调幅度依此向1080,1060
设想操做:现在持有100%空仓,在1080的位置开始转换为10%多仓,到1060转换成100%多仓.可能持续5天到8天.

(3)猪市没有结束:指数12月8日尝试向1080突破但失败,随后在8日后段或9日向上反弹,继续猪市行情.
设想操作:持有50%空仓DT,如果1080突破不成功,马上结束所有空仓,掉头继续做多仓波段和DT.

明日展望:

(1)12月8日最大可能出现的行情是测试1080的主要阻力位置,如果轻易击穿则有可能出现15点的大跌行情.如果在这里争持激烈则可能回到猪市走势.
(2)另一个较小的可能是,在12月2日MACD交叉后,股市已经下行4天,也可能在1090位置休息整理到12月9日在决定方向.


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