BESTBUY 给出的信号
华尔街睁着大大的眼睛，等待着BestBuy给出的数据。
美国经济复苏，零售业的复苏很关键。
BBY给出的数据有喜有忧。
喜的是，公司的盈利增长不错。而且，卖出的礼券数额不低，这些都是为了必然要实现的销售额。
忧的是，销售业绩的增长主要来自毛利率比较低的电脑和电视等电器产品的销售。是靠大幅压价获得的业绩。这说明，美国消费者真的是开始节俭持家了。
问题是，在这些低价位的电器领域，还有沃尔玛和那个大名鼎鼎的亚马逊网站在那里竞争。BBY显然不是他们的对手。
如果大家看看华尔街给亚马逊的市盈率，再比较一下其他零售企业和网上零售网站所能够获得的，就知道什么叫做厚爱了。
BBY业绩不错，公司也增加了自己对未来年度的盈利预估，从2.7-3.0美元到3.00-3.15美元。而且，公司在中国等海外市场的扩展顺利。在这种背景下，华尔街还是给它一个股价下降8%的下马威。
现在是不是一个建仓的好时刻？仁者见仁，智者见智。
【附录】Best Buy's shares drop as sales come at a price
12/15/09
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Boosted by U.S. holiday shoppers buying items from laptop computers to so-called smart phones, Best Buy Co. said Tuesday its third-quarter profit more than quadrupled as the retailer raised its forecast for the full fiscal year.
However, the stronger demand came at a price. Shares of the largest U.S. electronics chain (BBY) saw their biggest decline in more than a year, trading down 8.2% in late morning trading, as the company said strong sales of less profitable laptop computers and lower-priced flat-panel televisions are expected to lead to lower-than-expected fourth-quarter gross margin, a measure of profit that tracks percentage of sales left after minus the cost of goods sold.
Against the deflation in products such as notebook computers, which have become an increasing portion of Best Buy's sales, analysts said the margin forecast also signaled a competitive holiday season as Best Buy faced intense pressure to lower prices, pressuring its margins.
Retailers including discount giant Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT), online heavyweight Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) and wholesale club bellwether Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) all are seeking deeper inroads in electronics, overshadowing Best Buy's market share gain from the demise of its former rival Circuit City, analysts said.
"Sales are decent, but it's coming at a cost," said Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Brian Nagel in an interview. Competitive pressure "is more intense. With (product) prices coming down, they are at a place where Wal-Mart can get more aggressive. Wal-Mart is better at selling a $500 TV than a $2,000 TV."
There was one bright spot. Chief Executive Brian Dunn said on a conference call that gift card sales were up 40% n November and about doubled on the Thanksgiving weekend on Friday and Saturday, which Nagel said may bode well for sales in January.
Third-quarter net income increased to $227 million, or 53 cents a share, from $52 million, or 13 cents, in the same period a year earlier, when it had a 22-cent charge, the Minneapolis-based company said.
Sales in the latest quarter rose 5% to $12.02 billion from $11.5 billion, helped by the addition of 127 net new stores in the past 12 months. Sales at locations open at least 14 months, a key industry-performance benchmark, rose 1.7%.
They gained 4.6% in the U.S. as both traffic and the amount shoppers spent per transaction improved. Comparable sales outside of the U.S. dropped 6.7%, missing estimates of analysts such as J.P. Morgan's Christopher Horvers, who also estimating a decline of 4.4%.
Analysts, on average, had estimated that Best Buy would earn 43 cents a share on sales of $12 billion, according to forecasts compiled by FactSet Research.
Best Buy raised its full-year profit forecast, excluding special items, to $3 to $3.15 a share. It had projected $2.70 to $3 a share previously.
Management sees revenue of $49 billion to $49.5 billion for the year, driven in part by sales of notebook computers and lower-priced flat panel TVs. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had expected full-year profit of $2.95 a share on sales of $48.4 billion.
Holiday bright spot
Third-quarter gross margin narrowed to 24.5% from 24.9%, hurt by higher sales of less profitable notebook computers. Fourth-quarter margin is expected to be down 0.8 percentage point to 1 percentage point, Best Buy executives said on the call.
"This fuels concerns on the commoditization of the product cycle and that the bankruptcy of (Circuit City) is not relieving the competitive environment with Walmart and Amazon continuing to push into the space," J.P. Morgan's Horvers said.
Consumer electronics has been a top-performing category this holiday season. The Commerce Department's better-than-expected November sales data showed demand in electronics and appliances category was up nearly 3%, outpacing sales of general merchandise.
Demand at Best Buy also has been helped by the Microsoft Corp.'s October release of Windows 7 and Activision's new Call of Duty video game that helped to drive traffic earlier to stores, Best Buy said.
Total sales in the U.S. rose 9% to $8.9 billion, helped also by sales of appliances while games, movies and music sales were down. The company said sales improved sequentially each month, ending with an 8.4% gain in comparable-store sales in November as sales rose at a rate in the low double digits on Friday and Saturday of Thanksgiving holiday weekend. U.S. online sales rose more than 20%, boosted by both higher traffic and average ticket transaction.
To spur holiday sales, Best Buy has launched a "Buyer Be Happy" holiday campaign, a Twelpforce service account on Twitter.com that allows its employees to answer consumer questions. The company also has re-launched its Facebook page that added gift finder and catalog functions to engage shoppers.
Best Buy estimated it gained 2.3 percentage points in terms of market share in the three months ended Oct. 31.
The company also is focusing more on its top spenders through its Reward Zone program, offering them exclusive shopping and access to special events such as staging showings for the vampire movie "New Moon."
International sales fell 6% to $3.1 billion, hurt by declines in Canada and Best Buy Europe, a venture with the Carphone Warehouse . Best Buy said its international chief Bob Willett is retiring.
Best Buy is opening large-format stores in China and Canada and has signed leases for sites in the U.K. The company also has struck a deal with Vodafone Group (VOD) to make it the only mobile-phone retailer in the U.K. to offer all major carriers.
"Best Buy is still very much in a market share grabbing mode" overseas, Nagel said.
