Payrolls Probably Increased in March: U.S. Economy Preview
By Timothy R. Homan
March 28 (Bloomberg) -- Employers in the U.S. added jobs in March for the second time in more than two years, setting the stage for a broadening of the expansion, economists said before a report this week.
Payrolls probably rose by 190,000, the most in three years, after declining 36,000 in February, according to the median forecast of 62 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the Labor Department’s April 2 report. Other reports may show consumer spending and confidence increased, while factories expanded and home prices declined.
Caterpillar Inc. is among companies expanding and hiring as manufacturers benefit most from a recovery fueled by business investment, exports and efforts stabilize inventories. Sustained job growth is required to propel consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy.
More jobs “will remove some of the doubts that are out there about the sustainability of the recovery,” said Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclay’s Capital Inc. in New York.
The March payroll figures may receive a boost from the hiring of temporary government workers to conduct the 2010 Census and from better weather. Blizzards along the East Coast last month and record snowfall totals in some cities depressed payrolls.
The economy has lost 8.4 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, the most of any downturn in the postwar era. The Labor Department report will probably show the unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent for a third straight month, according to the survey median. The jobless rate has not increased since October, when it reached a 26-year high of 10.1 percent.
Bernanke on Jobs
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told Congress last week that the labor market justifies a long period of low interest rates.
The “unemployment situation is very weak,” with 40 percent of those without jobs being out of work for a long time, Bernanke said in response to questions during a House Financial Services Committee hearing March 25.
Optimism that the economy will keep growing has helped lift stocks. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index last week reached an 18- month high and has advanced 4.6 percent this year.
Consumer sentiment is projected to rebound this month, according to the survey median. The Conference Board’s confidence index, due March 30, probably increased to 50 from 46 in February.
Gains in Spending
Americans probably increased spending in February for a fifth straight month, a report tomorrow from the Commerce Department may show. Purchases climbed 0.3 percent and incomes likely rose 0.1 percent for a second consecutive month, the survey showed.
The Labor Department’s employment report may also show a 15,000 gain in factory jobs, according to the median estimate. More workers are being hired as companies ratchet up orders.
Manufacturing probably expanded in March for an eighth straight month, economists said before an April 1 report from the Institute for Supply Management. The Tempe, Arizona-based group’s factory index rose to 57 from a February reading of 56.5, the survey showed. Index readings greater than 50 signal expansion.
Caterpillar, the world’s largest maker of construction equipment, said last week that it plans to hire 500 workers this year to expand a generator plant in Newberry, South Carolina. “The expansion is likely to take three to four years and could vary based on demand and other factors,” Jim Dugan, a Caterpillar spokesman, said March 17 in an e-mail.
Fourth Quarter
The U.S. economy grew in the fourth quarter at a 5.6 percent annual rate, led by business spending on equipment and software and a smaller reduction in inventories, figures from the Commerce Department last week showed. Consumer spending climbed at a 1.6 percent pace compared with a 2.8 percent increase the previous three months. Corporate profits capped the biggest year-over-year gain in 25 years.
The housing market remains a weak spot for the economy. Mounting foreclosures are driving down home prices, and the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index of 20 U.S. cities probably declined in January for the first time in eight months.
The Obama administration last week announced programs to help U.S. homeowners avoid foreclosure, including subsidies for borrowers who owe more than their home is worth. The plan expands Treasury Department and Federal Housing Administration efforts and uses funds from the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program.
Bloomberg Survey
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Release Period Prior Median
Indicator Date Value Forecast
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Pers Inc MOM% 3/29 Feb. 0.1% 0.1%
Pers Spend MOM% 3/29 Feb. 0.5% 0.3%
Core PCE Prices YOY% 3/29 Feb. 1.4% 1.3%
Case Shiller Monthly MO 3/30 Jan. 0.3% -0.2%
Case Shiller Monthly YO 3/30 Jan. -3.1% -0.6%
Consumer Conf Index 3/30 March 46.0 50.0
ADP Payroll ,000’s 3/31 March -20 40
Chicago PM Index 3/31 March 62.6 61.0
Factory Orders MOM% 3/31 Feb. 1.7% 0.5%
Initial Claims ,000’s 4/1 27-Mar 442 440
ISM Manu Index 4/1 March 56.5 57.0
Construct Spending MOM% 4/1 Feb. -0.6% -1.0%
Nonfarm Payrolls ,000’s 4/2 March -36 190
Unemploy Rate % 4/2 March 9.7% 9.7%
Manu Payrolls ,000’s 4/2 March 1 15
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To contact the reporter on this story: Timothy R. Homan in Washington at thoman1@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: March 28, 2010 00:00 EDT