回复 '仙人刺' 的评论 : Exactly. The change of tone will kill gold's chance of upward move. We should see gold to try 1250-1260 area next week, but overall picture has changed dramatically in last 24 hours or so because of these talks.
仙人刺 发表评论于
回复 '南极棉' 的评论 :
I saw that interview this morning but the most people think his views are now more hawkish than previous one which are more dovish in March Fed meeting.
回复 '仙人刺' 的评论 : Today speaking on Bloomberg TV, Fed voting member Jim Bullard has these to say:
*BULLARD SAYS HE'S GROWING CONCERNED ABOUT GUIDANCE IN DOT PLOT
*BULLARD: DOT PLOT MAY HAVE HELPED TRIGGER EARLY-2016 SELL-OFF
*BULLARD SAYS HE CONSIDERED WITHDRAWING FROM DOT FORECASTING
*BULLARD SAYS FED POLICY IS IN `REASONABLY GOOD SHAPE'
*BULLARD SAYS FED DOT PLOT IMPLICITLY GIVING FORWARD GUIDANCE
*BULLARD SAYS ALL FOMC MEETINGS SHOULD HAVE PRESS CONFERENCES
*BULLARD SAYS THERE MAY BE A CASE TO BE MADE FOR APRIL FED MOVE
仙人刺 发表评论于
回复 '南极棉' 的评论 :
Although they do not have the voting rights for the rate hike but they got the point.
Fed already noted the most employment rate and inflation level are met their goal. Plus the mandate of Fed is untwisting the rate to normal level. I would like to believe their opinions are valuable
forever4you 发表评论于
@crankkee:问题是上星期也利空，可气 MM 就是要气气我们这些 DGAZ 持有者。没办法，我们不是拉车的，能乘点便车也不错了。
A 100 is a far fetched number. I see the index go back up to the 96-98 range in the near future.
南极棉 发表评论于
Put it in another way in this dollar index issue. If it break upward of PAR 100 zone, then hell will break loose immediately as debts dominated in US dollar accumulated in recent years which stands at 60% of new issued debts will in danger of default. Fed and all banksters of the world will try to do anything to avoid that happening.
南极棉 发表评论于
回复 'Maple655' 的评论 : Really, I see the opposite. Dollar index will test next support at 91-92 area soon instead of morph to 100 strong resistance, a so call Fed sand box:-)
Maple655 发表评论于
The dollar index is already on its way to recovery, fed talks or not. Try not to get into the politics - but at the end of the day, Yallen and the other voting members rule the day!
南极棉 发表评论于
回复 'Maple655' 的评论 : Uptick in US dollar is based on the talks yesterday. Gold broke down 1233-1243 in Asia session late last night. They can vote or not is not the issue. When you spell rate hike, people take it seriously. So far it holds second support @ 1217-1223. Next on deck is 1202. For technical reason, it is a good thing that gold did not morph to 1307 area this week. After testing supports,, it still has a chance to test it next if supports hold. Otherwise, downhill slide is a guarantee. 1207-1222 is 38.4 Fib number from 1923 high in 2011. Break or fail at that number is the tell for next immediate move direction.
Have you all heard about a "bunny" market? Yes, it hops around but goes nowhere. That description does match with the recent market behavior :)
Maple655 发表评论于
The small uptick in dollar index may contribute to the price drop in gold to a small degree. That's about it. People are taking notes of those comments from the several hawkish Feds - but it is too naive to take them very seriously at this point especially given the fact that some of them do not even have the right to sit or vote at the open market committee meetings
Rate hike will push gold down initially for sure. How far it will go is up in the air. Then gold should be up with rate hiking cycle. Historically speaking, gold bull run can go along with rate hikes cycle. Looked back from 1976-1980, gold went from 400 to 875 is an example.
南极棉 发表评论于
回复 'Maple655' 的评论 : Two Feds talked about rate hike in April 26-27th. It is in the air so gold tested supports. First one broken, second one right on it. Third one is 1190-1202ish. If last one holds, UP trends still intact. It can go down as far as 1150-1172 area and holds, trend is still not broken. We shall wait and see which one holds and go from there.
house_2008 发表评论于
雅歌老师,3.7 卖了DUST, 多少可以补回? 谢谢!
Maple655 发表评论于
Can anyone come up with a good reason to explain the sudden downward move in gold price? Trying to figure out if it is short-lived or atrend turning point.
Rules in investing:
1. Form your own vision in terms of the near future trend of the underlying stocks ( or buy into someone else's vision, such as Yage's )
2. Expect fights along the way ( It is unrealistic to think a smooth ride to get you where you want to go )
3. Adjust your expectations when facing fierce resistance by either admitting that your are wrong or stepping up your effort ( such as average down, etc.)
Just heard the "demography theory" which says that the first wave of baby boomers are hitting the age of 701/2 this year and starting withdraw funds from their iRA accounts. This could be a potential big headwind for the stock market this year.
Reasons signaling a good ahead for Dust:
1. The dollar index is back above 96
2. The price of gold is dropping fast
3. Newcrest, the largest gold miner in Australia, sank over 3% the last trading day
4. The GLD gold holdings remain unchanged ( or unupdated)
