克林顿(Hillary Clinton)
淳朴(Donald Trump)
这是我的预测(此贴是我的私下的纪录,不是示众的,你要是碰巧见了,到时可以看看我说的有多准,还是大错):克林顿原来领先淳朴5%(这是我为何在联调局调查事发前一天其实当淳粉也挺难的说“一边倒”),奥巴马医保损了1%(这是奥巴马全力为克林顿助阵的原因之一),联调局调查损了2%(参见:“克林顿:淳朴可能当选”的前因后果),这一事件的后果不是民主党和克阵的人数少了,而是以前很多绝望的温和共和党有了投本党候选人一票的借口,目前还是领先2%。虽不再是大幅度,还是胜势,这点我在别折腾自己了,淳朴没戏解释了。克林顿的资源实力(资金、智库、班子,基层、组织能力,群众拥趸)能给她增加1%,所以我的预测是克林顿最后将以3%胜出。参议院难说,克林顿有过半的机会,王声宏说3%参议院就有得玩(见别折腾自己了,淳朴没戏),但目前仅仅过半不足以下定论。
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