mu的股价去年11月下旬达到历史高点50以后，回调幅度达20%。此后12月18日季报，当季的盈利和下个季度的预期均超过分析师的预期20%。但是超好的季报数据没有能够提振mu的股价，股价二次探底，直到年后mu连续三天强反弹，涨幅达14%。上周五，mu股价逆势下跌2%（见图）。现在发现，mu的股价大起大落，和它近期FA变化有关。mu的主要产品dram属于大宗物质，价格依赖市场供求而变化。dram价格指数图显示，去年十月下旬开始到年末，dram的价格失去前期的上升动力，一直走平（见图）。根据此点，分析师下调了mu的评级，从而导致mu的股价大幅回调。在新的一年，市场对dram的需求仍然表现强劲，dram股价指数dxi突涨9%（见下图），这就是mu年后三天大涨14%的原因。上周五mu逆势下跌的原因，可以从TA角度解释。上周四mu收盘在46.9，恰好处于W型底部的颈线位置，上周五mu股价回落，可以看作是正常的回踩过程。如无意外，mu下周应当越过颈线阻力区，冲击前期高点50。上周五mu股价下跌2.3%的另一个可能的解释是mu的option卖方MM为了杀到期的巨量call而有意杀跌mu股价。上周五到期的mu45.5call和46.0call的OP分别是一万八千和一万一千（见下表）。周五mu收盘在45.8，上述巨量call归零。Jan 12 到期mu call的OP的量比 Jan 5 到期的call的OP数量明显少，对下周mu股价的牵制作用可能要减少。Jan 19到期的mu 46.0call和46.5call分别是6万5千和二万六千。因此，mu在Jan 19 的收盘价有可能被MM控制在46.0附近。上面的假设是否正确，拭目以待。个人看法，不做投资依据。
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MU
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45.80
|
|
45.81
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45.80
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-1.08
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-2.30
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100X4000
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46.655
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45.3752
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|
46,455,697
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Fri Jan 5 2018 4:01:11 pm ET|
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MU Jan 5 2018
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0 Days to Expiration (Weeklys)
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Expand Collapse
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Calls 
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Bid
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Ask
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Last
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Change
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Vol
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Op Int
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| |
44.5 Call
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1.24
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1.34
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1.36
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-1.06
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|
712
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5,339
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| |
45.0 Call
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0.74
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|
0.84
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|
0.77
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-1.16
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2,293
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7,147
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45.5 Call
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0.24
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|
0.34
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|
0.30
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-1.15
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4,624
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18,295
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| |
46.0 Call
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0.00
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0.01
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0.01
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-1.01
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10,345
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11,069
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46.5 Call
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0.00
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0.01
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0.01
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-0.66
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7,048
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4,449
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| |
47.0 Call
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0.00
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0.01
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0.01
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-0.39
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3,616
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4,418
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Strike
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44.50
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45.00
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45.50
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46.00
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46.50
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47.00
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Puts
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Bid
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Ask
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Last
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Change
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Vol
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Op Int
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| |
44.5 Put
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0.00
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0.02
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0.02
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-0.02
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2,018
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1,862
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45.0 Put
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0.00
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0.01
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0.01
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-0.04
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1,758
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2,515
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| |
45.5 Put
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0.00
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0.02
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0.01
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-0.06
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4,011
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1,723
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46.0 Put
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0.17
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0.24
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0.22
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0.08
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9,413
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4,372
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| |
46.5 Put
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0.67
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0.74
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0.65
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0.36
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2,732
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1,422
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47.0 Put
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1.17
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1.26
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1.22
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0.70
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822
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624
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Color indicates options that are in-the-money  Indicates non-standard option
The in-the-money indication does not apply to non-standard options.
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MU Jan 12 2018
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7 Days to Expiration (Weeklys)
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Calls
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Bid
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Ask
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Last
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Change
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Vol
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Op Int
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| |
44.5 Call
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1.71
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1.78
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1.75
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-1.01
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541
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2,372
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| |
45.0 Call
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1.41
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|
1.43
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|
1.41
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-0.95
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2,493
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4,770
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| |
45.5 Call
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1.11
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1.13
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|
1.11
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-0.88
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|
2,082
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|
1,594
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|
| |
46.0 Call
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|
0.85
|
|
0.87
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|
0.86
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|
-0.82
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|
6,906
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3,087
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| |
46.5 Call
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0.65
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|
0.67
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|
0.65
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-0.74
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4,351
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1,488
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| |
47.0 Call
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0.48
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0.51
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|
0.50
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-0.63
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3,931
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2,425
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Strike
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44.50
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45.00
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45.50
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46.00
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46.50
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47.00
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Color indicates options that are in-the-money  Indicates non-standard option
The in-the-money indication does not apply to non-standard options.
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MU Jan 19 2018
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14 Days to Expiration
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Expand Collapse
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Calls
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Bid
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Ask
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Last
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Change
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Vol
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Op Int
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| |
44.5 Call
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2.12
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|
2.15
|
|
2.10
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|
-0.98
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|
511
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2,180
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| |
45.0 Call
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|
1.80
|
|
1.84
|
|
1.79
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-0.93
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7,309
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51,816
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| |
45.5 Call
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1.52
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1.55
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1.52
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-0.86
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1,423
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2,216
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| |
46.0 Call
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1.28
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1.30
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1.27
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-0.80
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5,056
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65,013
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| |
46.5 Call
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1.04
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1.08
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1.05
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-0.75
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2,073
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|
25,928
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| |
47.0 Call
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0.86
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|
0.89
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|
0.87
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|
-0.68
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|
2,971
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15,594
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Strike
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44.50
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45.00
|
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45.50
|
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46.00
|
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46.50
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47.00
|
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Color indicates options that are in-the-money Indicates non-standard option
The in-the-money indication does not apply to non-standard options.
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xx
