David Goldman 关于中国的五大迷思以及它们为何会害死我们
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=thtlyQb8Auo&t=27s
YouTube 2022年9月20日
大卫·戈德曼于 2022 年 9 月 11 日在迈阿密全国保守主义会议上的演讲。
数字时代是美国冷战胜利的副产品记得 1973 年，每个人都认为我们输了苏联地对空导弹摧毁了以色列空军驾驶的一百架美国飞机苏联反坦克武器是世界上最好的，向以色列坦克部队恳求油价翻了两番，伤害了美国及其盟友，让俄罗斯受益聪明的钱都以为美国输了闪进九年后，美国和以色列以色列航空电子设备在巴卡尔谷火鸡射击中摧毁了一百架俄罗斯飞机在这两个里程碑之间美国发明了数字时代的每一个组成部分，无一例外，无一例外，它们都是从五角大楼或美国宇航局的资助开始的，这就是加利福尼亚的真实一面当时联邦发展预算占 GDP 的 1%，这是研发的 D 方面，相当于目前每年约 2500 亿美元，呃，正如你从图表中看到的那样，相对于经济而言，我们下降到了三分之一 是的，我们在 1983 年拥有的是高科技魔法，现在我们有了魔法师的学徒，50 年后，我们面临的技术挑战比 1973 年更大，看起来俄罗斯人会赢吗？中国在其海岸拥有大约 2000 枚地对舰导弹，400 个发射器，它们比 1973 年的俄罗斯萨姆导弹更能改变游戏规则，就像鱼雷机和俯冲轰炸机的组合，在第二次世界大战初期摧毁了战舰作为一种有效的作战平台，中国在制造高超音速武器方面领先于我们，这是一个如此激进的转变，我知道 Rob Spalding 会对此发表更多看法，增量战略，重新调整我们现有的军队，在这里或那里再增加一点，我们就会丧命，这是我与老朋友布里奇·科尔比的强烈分歧，我们可以稍后再谈论这个问题，几个月前，战略与国际研究中心举行了一场关于美国和中国之间可能发生的战争的演习，核心情景是血腥的僵局，我们损失了 200 架飞机，对不起，700 架飞机和两艘航空母舰，我认为 csis 太乐观了，只要你认为中国地对舰导弹击中美国舰船的概率，然后把过时和无效的宙斯盾系统拦截它的概率乘以两千，我保证，无论你得出什么数字，你都不会喜欢，记住乌克兰人，乌克兰人用卡车后面的鱼叉导弹击沉了黑海的俄罗斯旗舰清真寺 VA，中国人在这方面比乌克兰人好得多如果我们只是采用一个豪猪武器在台湾建立，试图放置大量武器，这些武器将进入可能的中国攻击，我们得到了我相信呃将军，April 工作人员读到的被称为梦游者情景，我们一方动员，另一方必须动员，这就是第一次世界大战的结果，如果我们试图简单地提高中国入侵台湾的成本，我们就会邀请中国人尽早入侵，所以在我看来，渐进式战略根本行不通，台湾一代人假装武装自己，中国人假装受到威慑，台湾的年轻人不想被北京党魁统治，他们为什么要这样做，但他们不想服超过四个月的兵役，台湾目前无法为他们为美国购买的 f-16 找到飞行员，我把它放在哪里了，美国保卫台湾的军事理论，而年轻人在玩电子游戏，同时有两百万台湾人在大陆工作，台湾人在中国大陆投资了 2000 亿美元，两国关系非常接近，双方都在从对方那里得到他们想要的东西，所以我保证告诉你五个可能让我们丧命的神话，让我从这个开始，第一个神话是中国通过向美国出口而致富，也许在2008年，中国对美国的出口占其GDP的9%，现在占GDP的2%，中国不再对我们感兴趣了，美国接受吧，自从特朗普关税于2019年8月生效以来，中国对美国的出口增长了50%，这是因为无论我们对中国对美国的出口收取多少成本，我们都没有足够的工业能力来替代它们，所以我们只需要购买中国产品并为它们支付更多费用，呃，我会说到这个，顺便说一下，中国有1万亿美元的贸易顺差，这意味着它出口了1万亿美元的资本，我们有 1.4 万亿美元的贸易逆差，这意味着我们必须进口 1.4 万亿美元的资本，在我看来，通过法律阻止美国人在中国投资是微不足道和毫无意义的，中国是唯一一个在海外进行净投资的国家，这很不方便，但不会伤害他们。第二个神话是，中国依赖于窃取美国技术，过去确实如此，但我们已经远远超越了这一点，试图不窃取我们的技术，制造一种可以环绕地球并击中目标的高超音速导弹，因为我们不知道如何做到这一点，中国在几个高科技领域处于领先地位，特别是宽带通信，根据美国新闻排名，中国毕业的工程师数量也是我们的七倍，中国大学的工程专业在世界排名中名列前茅，有 21 个工程专业，中国不得不 派人去美国接受教育，大约 10 多年前，按照一些标准，中国的科学产出的质量和数量 达到或超过了我们，事实上，我们在永远的战争中浪费了六万亿美元，工业的枯竭是我们自己造成的，现在是时候面对自己的失败，而不是寻找别人来责怪神话三：中国面临人口崩溃，整个西方都面临人口崩溃，但有区别，世界上出生率最低的两个国家是韩国和台湾，所以在本世纪，按照目前的出生率，基本上是每个女性生一个孩子，你将失去韩国70%的人口和台湾60%的人口，所以大约在半个世纪的时间里，韩国统一了，因为他们唯一不能进口的就是韩国人，而台湾的问题变成了进口中国人的问题，所以作为一个战略实体，台湾是自我毁灭的，如果我们把问题推到后面去，中国人非常清楚台湾会落入他们的手中，因为没有足够的时间，而他过去常常担心，这就是为什么中国人并不急于入侵，除非我们强行解决这个问题，这就引出了神话四：中国想入侵台湾，因为它是由一个扩张主义的马克思列宁主义政党领导的，这个政党憎恨和害怕民主中国是马克思主义者，就像黑手党是天主教徒一样，他们非常认真地对待民主，你知道，他们是各种马克思主义流派，温和主义，但有时很难找到实际的重要性，中国的领土完整是中国政府的联络点，也是战争的原因，因为中国不是一个民族国家，而是一个多民族、多语言的帝国，大约三分之一的人能流利地说普通话，大多数人说自己的方言，在中国悲惨的历史中，无数次王朝覆灭，因为一个分离省份与外国侵略者结盟，摧毁了首都的力量，这印刻在中国历史上，印刻在中国的治国方略上，当中国人认为美国在玩弄台湾主权的想法时，他们认为外国侵略者是屈辱的中心，在中国分裂的过程中，他们会发动战争来阻止这种事情，我们有能力维持现状，也就是一个中国政策大家都同意台湾和中国是同一个国家，双方都认为应该互相统治，但这种情况仍有待解决，我们可以把这个问题推迟到将来，如果我们试图强行解决这个问题，我们将陷入战争，我们可能会输掉战争，因为我们没有能力再次做到这一点，渐进主义是我们面临的最大风险，因为我们正在应对一场技术革命，所以神话五是，我们可以通过将军事力量转移到亚洲和调整常规能力来遏制中国，1973 年美国无法击败苏联，73 年美国输了，1982 年的美国是一个不同的国家，我们将其改造以击败中国，我们必须成为一个不同的国家，除非我们以万亿来思考，否则我们就是在浪费时间，所以我们首先要有一个铃铛五只猫，我们必须将研发资金恢复到里根的水平，我们谈论的是未来五六年每年额外支出一万亿美元，我们需要彻底修改税收和监管政策，以恢复对关键任务行业的制造业选择性补贴，转变将教育重点转向工程和硬科学，最重要的是将国防重点从传统系统转向天基导弹防御、人工智能、定向能、网络战等。我知道我的朋友罗伯·斯伯丁会就此进行更多讨论，我无法具体说明是什么让我们回到了 1973 年的技术领先地位，没有人知道 DARPA 的一个项目导致了 CMOS 芯片制造，并将俯视雷达安装在 f-15 上，但我们释放了美国人的创造力和企业家精神，重新发明了民用和美国及军事技术科技并主宰世界创新是我们最大的优势，我们必须相信它谢谢
非常感谢
David Goldman | Five Myths About China and Why They Could Get Us Killed | NatCon 3 Miami
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=thtlyQb8Auo&t=27s
YouTube 2022年9月20日
David Goldman's address at the Miami National Conservatism Conference on September 11, 2022.
the digital age was a byproduct of America's Cold War victory remember in 1973 everybody thought we'd lost Soviet surface-to-air missiles destroyed a hundred American planes flown by the Israeli Air Force Soviet anti-tank weapons best in the world to plea to the Israeli tank force the oil price quadrupled hurt the United States and its allies benefited Russia smart money all thought America had lost Flash Forward nine years later
American and Israel Israeli avionics destroyed a hundred Russian planes at the bakar valley turkey shoot in between those two Milestones America invented every single component of the digital age with no exceptions and with no exceptions they all began with funding from the Pentagon or from NASA that's where California came from the
real side of it the federal development budget was then one percent of GDP that's the D
side of r d That's the equivalent of about 250 billion dollars a year in current terms uh as you can see from the chart we're down to about a third of that relative to the economy
yes what we had in nineteen eighty three was high-tech sorcery now we've got sorcerer's apprentices 50 years later we Face an even greater technological challenge than we did in 1973 would it looked like the Russians would win China has roughly 2 000 surface-to-ship
missiles on its Coast with 400 launchers they're a game changer as much more than
the Russian Sam's in 1973 something like the combination of torpedo planes and
dive bombers that destroyed the battleship as an effective War fighting
platform at the beginning of World War II China is ahead of us in building
Hypersonic weapons this is a shift so radical I know Rob Spalding will have to say more about it that an incremental strategy of rejiggering our existing forces building
a little bit more here and there will get us killed that's my strong disagreement with my old friend Bridge Colby we can talk about that later very well publicized where exercises
held by the center for strategic and International Studies a few months ago on a possible war between the United States and China and the core scenario was a bloody stalemate in which we lose 200 sorry 700 planes and two aircraft carriers I think the csis was much too optimistic just take the probability that you think pick a number any number that a Chinese surface to ship missile has of hitting an American vessel and then the probability of the Antiquated and ineffective Aegis system interdicting it and multiply by two thousand and I guarantee whatever number you come up with you're not going to like remember that the ukrainians the ukrainians used a harpoon missile off the back of a truck to sink the Russian Flagship mosque VA in the Black Sea the Chinese
are a lot better at this than the ukrainians
a point if we simply adopt a porcupine
weapons build up in Taiwan try to place
a lot of weapons which would enter that
a possible Chinese attack we get what I
believe uh what general what April staff
read is called the Sleepwalker scenario
we one side mobilizes the other side has
to mobilize that's the World War One result if we try to Simply raise the cost of a
Chinese invasion of Taiwan we invite the Chinese to invade sooner rather than later
so the incremental strategy in my view is not going to work at all Taiwan for a generation has pretended to arm itself and the Chinese have pretended to be deterred taiwan's young people don't want to be ruled by Beijing party bosses why should they but they don't want to do more than four-month military service Taiwan cannot presently find Pilots for the f-16s they're buying for the United States has ever look where I put it the Taiwan military doctrines for America to defend it while there are young people
play video games meanwhile you have two million Taiwanese working on the mainland and the Taiwanese had invested 200 billion dollars in the Chinese Mainland the relations are extremely close and both are getting out of the other what they want so I promise to tell you about five myths that could get us killed let me start with this the first myth
is that China is getting rich by exporting to the United States maybe
in 2008 when Chinese exports the U.S were nine percent of their GDP now they're two
percent of GDP China's just not into us anymore America get over it since the Trump tariffs came into effect in August 2019 Chinese exports to the US have risen by 50 percent that's because no matter what cost we place on Chinese exports to the U.S we don't have the industrial capacity to replace them so we simply have to buy
Chinese products and pay more for them that's uh I'll get to that China by the way has a trillion dollar Trade Surplus which means it exports a trillion dollars of capital we have a 1.4 trillion dollar trade deficit which means we have to import 1.4 trillion
dollars of capital it seems to me trivial and pointless to pass laws to stop Americans from investing in China China is the one investing net overseas it's an inconvenience but it doesn't hurt them myth number two China depends on Stolen American Technology well it did in the past but we've moved well beyond that trying to not steal us know-how to build a Hypersonic missile that can Circle the globe and hit a Target because we don't know how to do that China leads in several high-tech Fields particularly Broadband Communications it also graduates seven times as many engineers as we do according to the U.S news rankings China has 21 of the best 50 engineering programs at its universities in the world the point at which China had to
send its people to the United States to
get an education that was about over 10
years ago by some measures the quality and
quantity of China's scientific output
measures or surpasses ours the fact is
we poured six trillion dollars down the
drain in Forever Wars and deplete at our
Industries we did this to ourselves and
it's time we faced up to our own failures instead of looking for someone
else to blame myth number three China faces demographic collapse well
the whole West faces demographic claps
but there are distinctions the two lowest birth rates in the world
are South Korea and Taiwan so in the course of the century at current
birth rates which is basically one child per female you lose 70 percent of the population of South Korea in the century and sixty percent of the population of Taiwan so
around about halfway there the Koreans unify because the one thing they can't
import is Koreans and the Taiwanese problem becomes one of
importing Chinese so as a strategic entity Taiwan is self-liquidated if we kick the
can down the road the Chinese know perfectly well that
Taiwan falls into their lap because there won't be enough time when he used
to worry about which is why the Chinese are in no particular hurry to invade
unless we force the issue and that gets to myth number four which is that China
wants to invade Taiwan because it's led by an expansionist Marxist leninist party that hates and fears democracy China is Marxist the same way that the mafia is Catholic they take it very seriously they're you know all kinds of schools of Marxism lenatism but the Practical importance is sometimes hard to find the reason that the territorial Integrity of China is a liaison detta of
the Chinese State and a cause for war is because China is not a nation-state it's
a multi-ethnic multilingual Empire where roughly a third of the people can converse fluently in Mandarin most speak their own dialect and for it innumerable times in China's tragic history dynasties have collapsed because a breakaway Province allied with a foreign Invader to destroy the power of the capital that is imprinted on Chinese history on Chinese statecraft and when the Chinese see the United States in their view playing with the idea of sovereignty of Taiwan they see the center of humiliation foreign Invaders In the breakup of China and they'll go to war to stop that we it is within our power to maintain the status quo which is the one China policy everyone agrees Taiwan and China are the same country both think they should be ruling each other but the situation remains to be resolved in the future we can kick that down the road if we try to force the
issue we'll get into a war and we'll probably lose it because we're not equipped to it again incrementalism is the biggest single risk we have because we're dealing with a technological Revolution so myth number five is that we can deter China by shifting military force to Asia and adjusting conventional capabilities we could not beat the Soviet Union in 1973 America and 73 had lost in the America of 1982 was a different country we transformed it to beat China we have to become a different country and unless we think in terms of trillions we're wasting our time so we've got a bell five cats first we've got to get funding for r d back to the Reagan level we're talking about several hundred billion dollars a year of additional spending a trillion in the next five or six years we need a radical revision of tax and Regulatory policy to restore manufacturing selective subsidies for Mission critical Industries a shift in educational priorities to engineering and hard science and above all shift defense priorities away from Legacy systems towards space-based missile defense artificial intelligence directed energy cyber war and so forth I know my friend Rob Spalding will talk a great deal more about this I can't be specific about exactly what takes us back to technological leadership in 1973 nobody knew that a DARPA project which led to CMOS chip manufacturing would put look down radar in f-15s but we unleashed American creativity and Entrepreneurship reinvented civilian and American and Military technology and be dominated the world Innovation is our great strength and we have to trust in it thank you very much thank you
