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'Lazy Portfolios' 1Q update (still winners!)
'Lazy Portfolios' 1Q update (still winners!)
2007-04-10 11:11:20
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PAUL B. FARRELL
'Lazy Portfolios' 1Q update (still winners!)
And beating the S&P 500 for passive investors, advisers and pros
By
Paul B. Farrell
, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:35 AM ET Apr 10, 2007
ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- Welcome to the new 1st quarter update of the lazy portfolios. And guess what: They're still boring ... and still beating the S&P 500, with no timing and no trading necessary.
Who's interested in the lazy portfolios? Recent e-mails suggest that although we initially thought lazy portfolios were mainly for passive do-it-yourself Main Street investors, as time passed we've discovered that this strategy is actually working for three different kinds of investors:
Passive investors: the vast majority of America's 95 million investors
Financial advisers and wealth managers helping high-net-worth folks
Financial industry pros investing the passive portion of their assets
So whichever group you fit in, come join the club, you're a perfect candidate for one of these lazy portfolios. Or we invite you to create your own modified version.
Focus on funds, ETFs
MarketWatch offers complete coverage of mutual funds and exchange-traded funds. Highlights:
•
Trouble in ETF paradise?
•
Indexer sticks to fundamentals
•
Green light for growth funds
•
Secrets of the S&P 500
•
How to Buy funds, ETFs and more
Get our free Mutual Funds weekly
And by the way, if you haven't figured it out by now from reading about lazy portfolios the past several years we've been updating them, lazy investing is nothing more than the good old MPT (Modern Portfolio Theory) in action: Simple well-diversified portfolios of three to 11 low-cost, no-load index funds. Solid long-term asset allocations with no active trading.
Warning: Brokers hate this Nobel Prize-winning strategy because they can't get rich on index funds. But the truth is, once you're in the club, you can ignore the other 14,000 funds out there, they're unnecessary.
So how are the lazy portfolios doing? Same dull, boring results: Still beating the S&P 500! Morningstar tallied the results for us again. The Aronson Family Portfolio was the three- and five-year winner, and the "Second Grader's Lazy 'Starter' Portfolio" nudged out the "Yale U Portfolio" on a one-year basis (thanks to having just 10% in fixed-income compared to 20% to 40% for the others). Here are all the facts, folks:
Aronson Family Portfolio: 11 funds
Ted Aronson heads up AJO Partners, managers of $29 billion, no retail funds for the public, just institutional retirement money. I first ran across Ted in a Barron's interview. He's one of the rare managers who's honest enough to tell you where his own money is invested. "All of my family's retirement money is in AJO funds," says Ted, "but because the fund trades a lot, it's not suitable for taxable investments. So all our family's taxable money is in Vanguard's no-load index funds." And he's beating the S&P 500 on a 1-, 3- and 5-year annualized basis with 40% in domestic, 40% in international and 20% in fixed income. And he's sticking with these allocations for the near future.
Fund
Allocation
1-year return
3-year annualized return
5-year annualized return
Vanguard 500 Index
VFINX
15%
11.67%
9.91%
6.14%
Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index
VEIEX
20%
18.88
26.86
23.82
Vanguard European Stock Index
VEURX
5%
25.65
22.09
15.85
Vanguard Extended Market Index
VEXMX
10%
8.48
13.76
12.46
Vanguard High-Yield Corporate
VWEHX
5%
9.01
6.60
7.77
Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities
VIPSX
10%
5.08
2.85
7.22
Vanguard Long-Term U.S. Treasury
VUSTX
5%
6.40
3.68
7.36
Vanguard Pacific Stock Index
VPACX
15%
9.78
14.77
15.62
Vanguard Small Cap Growth
VISGX
5%
3.73
11.80
11.57
Vanguard Small Cap Value Index
VISVX
5%
9.54
14.16
11.19
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index
VTSMX
5%
11.10
10.81
7.50
Total portfolio
100%
11.62
14.19
13.06
S&P 500 Index
100%
11.83
10.06
6.27
No-Brainer Portfolio: 9 funds
Dr. William Bernstein is the author of the Intelligent Asset Allocator as well as a physician, neurologist and financial adviser. I first saw this portfolio seven years ago in his SmartMoney column. And "No-Brainer" is soundly beating the S&P 500's five-year averages plus running neck and neck on a one- and three-year basis.
Fund
Allocation
1-year return
3-year annualized return
5-year annualized return
Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index
5%
18.88%
26.86%
23.82%
Vanguard European Stock Index
5%
25.65
22.09
15.85
Vanguard Pacific Stock Index
5%
9.78
14.77
15.62
Vanguard REIT Index
VGSIX
5%
21.66
22.28
21.62
Vanguard Short-Term Investment Grade Index
VFSTX
40%
6.08
3.10
4.00
Vanguard Small Cap Index
NAESX
5%
6.70
13.07
11.54
Vanguard Small Cap Value Index
10%
9.54
14.16
11.19
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index
15%
11.10
10.81
7.50
Vanguard Value Index
VIVAX
10%
17.06
14.22
9.45
Total portfolio
100%
10.89
10.65
9.21
S&P 500 Index
100%
11.83
10.06
6.27
Coffeehouse Portfolio: 7 funds
Bill Schultheis is a former Smith Barney broker and author of "The Coffeehouse Investor." Bill launched his portfolio in 1999 when Wall Street was betting heavy on tech and dot-coms. They laughed at his 40% bond allocation. But nobody laughed during the bear market of 2000-2002 when his lazy portfolio was beating the S&P 500 by 15 percentage points all three years. And it's so simple: You put 40% in an intermediate bond index and 10% in each of the six stock funds; so it wins in bull and bear markets.
Fund
Allocation
1-year return
3-year annualized return
5-year annualized return
Vanguard 500 Index
10%
11.67%
9.91%
6.14%
Vanguard REIT Index
10%
21.66
22.28
21.62
Vanguard Small Cap Index
10%
6.70
13.07
11.54
Vanguard Small Cap Value Index
10%
9.54
14.16
11.19
Vanguard Total Bond Market Index
VBMFX
40%
6.45
3.17
4.87
Vanguard Total International Stock Index
VGTSX
10%
20.14
20.64
16.56
Vanguard Value Index
10%
17.06
14.22
9.45
Total portfolio
100%
11.26
10.70
9.60
S&P 500 Index
100%
11.83
10.06
6.27
Yale University Lazy Portfolio: 5 funds
David Swensen's the manager of Yale University's endowment fund and author of "Unconventional Success," a must-read book. He's had incredible returns of roughly 16% annually for two decades! However, he warns that institutional managers like him have many advantages unavailable to America's 94 million Main Street investors. His five-fund lazy portfolio is a solid winner, beating the S&P 500 across the board.
Fund
Allocation
1-year return
3-year annualized return
5-year annualized return
Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities
15%
5.08%
2.85%
7.22%
Vanguard REIT Index
20%
21.66
22.28
21.62
Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Index
VFISX
15%
5.02
2.25
3.60
Vanguard Total International Stock Index
20%
20.14
20.64
16.56
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index
30%
11.10
10.81
7.50
Total portfolio
100%
13.21
12.59
11.51
S&P 500 Index
100%
11.83
10.06
6.27
Margaritaville Portfolio: 3 funds
Scott Burns is a popular Dallas Morning News financial columnist and co-author of the best-selling "Coming Generational Storm." He started developing lazy portfolios 15 years ago. His Margaritaville Portfolio is simple. And it's beating the S&P 500 in all three time periods.
Fund
Allocation
1-year return
3-year annualized return
5-year annualized return
Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities
33.3%
5.08%
2.85%
7.22%
Vanguard Total International Stock Index
33.3%
20.14
20.64
16.56
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index
33.3%
11.10
10.81
7.50
Total portfolio
100%
11.99
11.32
10.32
S&P 500 Index
100%
11.83
10.06
6.27
Second-Grader's 'Starter' Portfolio: 3 funds
Here's a new lazy portfolio we just reviewed a couple months ago.
See previous Paul B. Farrell.
Kevin Roth is an 8-year-old second-grader. He got a gift from grandma and a few hints from his father, Allan, a financial planner in Colorado Springs. It's a simple portfolio with just 10% in bonds, perfect for someone with a long time horizon and higher risk tolerance.
Fund
Allocation
1-year return
5-year annualized return
10-year annualized return
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index
60%
11.10%
10.81%
7.50%
Vanguard Total International Stock Index
30%
20.14
20.64
16.56
Vanguard Total Bond Market Index
10%
6.45
3.17
4.87
Portfolio
100%
13.35
13.00
9.96
S&P 500 Index
11.83
10.06
6.27
Source for all figures: Morningstar Inc. data as of March 31.
Your choice
But, which one's best for you? Actually, any one of the seven is better than wasting time chasing hot stocks and the other 14,000 funds, the vast majority of which underperform the market every year. In the long run, any one of these portfolios is a better choice than virtually all other alternatives for passive investors.
Finally, it turns out that the lazy portfolios have gained enough readership that we're considering the possibility of making them a regular feature, with daily updates so you can come back and check out their performance anytime, not just quarterly.
Moreover, since we had an encouraging 98% favorable response last week regarding Prof. Siegel's ETF portfolio, we'll probably add it along with a traditional cap-weighted ETF portfolio for comparison to the mutual fund versions above.
See previous Paul B. Farrell.
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