How to Make Really 'Big Money'
MarketWatch
By Paul B. Farrell March 16, 2007
When Shanghai and Hong Kong nose-dived a few weeks ago, they pulled American markets down with them. Instantly the media and press turned away from Britney's bizarre behavior and began blabbering breathlessly about the hot new topic du jour, "risk." Here's one of the best metaphors:
"We view financial risk much like popcorn popping in a microwave. Until the first kernel pops, one tends to believe nothing's happening," said Merrill Lynch chief investment strategist Richard Bernstein in Time magazine. "The initial pop seems like a random event until the second occurs. A third. A fourth. Then the popping goes wild." Suddenly, an unpredictable, irrational mob takes over.
Unpredictable? Yes. Irrational? Yes. That's the nature of risk. But why? Back in the superbullish days of the late 1990s, economist Peter Bernstein wrote the definitive history of risk in "Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk." The book reflected the upbeat illusions of the time: "The revolutionary idea that defines the boundary between modern times and the past is the mastery of risk."
More specifically, Bernstein believed that the new information technology of the "this-time-it's-different" nineties was the real "boundary" line ... and that we had indeed mastered risk.
Wrong. In spite of the war, terror threats, danger of nuclear attacks, huge deficits and other problems, we're in denial about the enormous risks facing us. We're stuck in the illusion that we're safe, that we've "mastered risk."
This illusion came to mind while reading economist Gary Shilling's latest Insight newsletter. His title promises much: "How to Make Big Money: 11 Time-Tested Strategies." And it's well documented. But it made me oddly anxious. Why? Because his 11 strategies help America's 8 million millionaires (and billionaires) to get richer, but they're not much help to the other 292 million Americans.
Listen closely to the opening: "An unprecedented number of Americans have received unprecedented incomes and accumulated unprecedented net worths in recent years." But those "gains are tempered by the reality that while the top tier is gaining, the income shares of the rest are falling. Many Americans have seen no purchasing-power gains in decades."
And the gap's widening: The "lack of income didn't deter spending. In aggregate terms, spending has risen a half percentage point per year faster than after-tax incomes for 25 years, pushing the saving rate from 12% in the early 1980s to -1% today. Many financed their excess spending growth by tapping stock appreciation during the long 1982-2000 rally, and more recently, from their house appreciation."
No risk for the wealthy
Suddenly I realized why this made me anxious. There are actually two distinct kinds of risk. Risk is fundamentally different for the rich, it almost doesn't exist! They can use these strategies to their advantage, to manage risk and build equities. But the other 292 million are stuck with the leftovers, not equities but systemic liabilities, such as higher taxes, drug costs, excessive fund expenses, limited opportunities, outsourcing, etc.
So take a moment: review Shilling's 11 "time-tested" ways to make "big money." Look closely and you may see evidence of a bubble growing in these 11 quite diverse strategies for making really big money off the backs of many naive Americans:
· 1. Government subsidies. Uncle Sam often guarantees big bucks while Main Street taxpayers pick up the tab; for example, drugs, energy and agriculture sectors.
· 2. Big fat inheritances. The super rich are the ones fighting to eliminate the so-called death tax, so they can hoard more money, pass along a bigger share, keep it in the family.
· 3. Little equity, lots of debt. Leverage works magic. It worked for condo-flippers. Now the little guys are having problems. But with $640 billion in subprime deals last year, insiders made lots of money in executive salaries, bonuses, commissions.
· 4. Nonfinancial leverage. Think of all that talent in television, movies, music and athletics. Oprah leverages Dr. Phil. Gore leverages Oscar worldwide. "American Idol" leverages millions of wannabes. Even billable time with lawyers, says Shilling, where name partners pay associates $75 an hour and charge clients $350 an hour.
· 5. 'Next big thing.' Invent something, but best not to be the first one in. My first computer was a Kaypro 25 years ago. I remember when Prodigy was bigger than AOL. Shilling says: "Who ever heard of Seattle Computer Works, Chux or Carterphone?"
· 6. Small slices of very big pies. Watch the deal-makers in investment banks, private-equity managers, mortgage lenders, CEOs, commercial banks and fast-food franchises. Imagine getting a mere 0.1% finder's fee (or better yet, a 0.1% annual "management" fee) in the $45 billion Texas Power Company deal! Or maybe the average $2.4 million salary paid today's CEOs, plus options and bonuses. And you can even do a crappy job and get fired, like the Home Depot boss, and still get severance of $240 million.
· 7. Cartels and monopolies. Easy money when they have control over price and supply. Get in cahoots with politicians and secure government protections through patents and regulation. Crude oil is the classic, also steel, utilities and cable TV.
· 8. Sell the sizzle, not the steak. P.T. Barnum was right, there is an endless supply of suckers looking for the "big money," and ripe for the pickings. We'll buy anything: Quick-buck deals from Nigerian con men, financial newsletters promising hot tips, vitamins that prevent aging, secret cancer cures and, oh yes, how-to-get-rich-quick books.
· 9. Feed the addict's habit. We're a nation of addicts, "sex, nicotine, caffeine, booze, drugs, cosmetics and lavish clothes," says Shilling, "as well as small luxuries like greeting cards and fancy coffee." Play on weaknesses. Tobacco agreed to a $206 billion settlement then jacked up the prices. Notice all the new high-caffeine drinks. Or sell $3.60 lattes that cost 60 cents to make. Addicts are easy pickings in America.
· 10. Supply picks and shovels. Who made money in the California Gold Rush? Not the prospectors. Today's new prospectors include millions of naive investors. Today's suppliers are "stock brokers, asset managers, stock market-oriented TV and radio, real estate brokers, mortgage lenders and corn-farming equipment makers."
· 11. Get paid with "other people's money." Example: That desperate CEO who needs legitimacy hires consultants to justify the sale of his company, so he can get a huge severance package. "Winners include business consultants, corporate defense lawyers and soft commission dollar recipients." Shilling discusses one of his assignments; I saw this happen when I was at Morgan Stanley, lots of money for little risk.
Two kinds of risk folks: Rich guys take very little risk in a $45 billion private equity buy-out. Nothing to lose. But the overextended little guy with an ARM on his $450,000 home took a huge risk and may lose everything. This gap is not just an income gap as Shilling points out, it's a risk gap. The rich get the equities, the rest get the liabilities.
Warning: It's blowing a new kind of bubble, and it's getting bigger.
