Is your life hedged? 2006-11-23 11:08:56
大概两个月前, financial markets爆出一个惊天的news: 一家叫做Amaranth的hedge fund因为做natural gas futures判断失误,在不到一个月内亏掉$6 billion,而该公司的总资产还不到$10 billion. 接下来的事情就显而易见了,该公司的投资者们慌作一团,纷纷要求归还剩余的帐面资产,而且很多lawsuits可能还在后面等着呢.一时间风云变幻,人仰马翻,该公司恐怕最终难逃清偿或破产的命运...
乍一听到这样的market terrorism,不禁会惊呼: what the heck?! 据说Amaranth在hedge fund圈内名头颇响,尤其在投资energy derivatives方面,过往曾有显赫的战绩. 但这次致命失败凸显出其risk control is very scattered. 它怎么会允许一位交易员动用天文数字一样的资金去一意孤行地speculate natural gas,以至于最终亏掉了公司超过半数的资产? 尽管这位老兄used to be a brilliant star,但无论其本人还是Amaranth,都显得太过over-confident. 联想到以前出现的另外几起hedge fund的重大挫折, 不禁会疑问: is hedge fund hedged?
Hedge fund, 有别于传统的investment portfolios,属于近年来倍受青睐的另类投资(alternative investments)的范畴.它和一般portfolios的区别,除了投资的对象更加多元,更加灵活,在我看来更重要的是对风险的理解和处理. 传统的investment portfolios致力于diversify and eliminate "unsystematic risk",也就是把投资组合中每一个individual issue所携带的specific risk化解掉,这样余下来的无法diversify的风险就只剩下市场本身所不可避免的那部分(只要是投资就必须面对的),也就是所谓的market risk或systematic risk. The overall risk of a well-diversified portfolio相对单个投资已经是大大降低而且更加consistent, 因此由于risk vs. return之间的相辅相成关系,该portfolio的return正常情况下不会高的离谱,但会比较稳定.
而hedge fund就大相径庭了.我相信hedge fund manager们是欢迎每个投资个体所携带的unsystematic risk的,只有这种risk才可能给hedge fund带来比其他portfolios更高的回报. 因此,hedge fund注定不是well-diversified portfolio,相反它所面对的overall risk是惊人的.既然这样,hedge fund该如何manage or control它的risk呢? 我觉得hedge fund对每笔投资的风险分析判断极其重要,也就是通过各种analysis and educated guess to maximize the chance of winning upon every single decision making. 这样一来, theoretically speaking, 既然每笔投资在出手伊始就有较高的赢利概率(ideally over 50%), then overall the hedge fund itself has better chance to realize much higher return. 即便某些投资最终是失败的,most likely这些损失也会被其他成功的投资(有些可能是暴利)offset. 我想,这大概就是为什么中文把hedge fund翻译成"对冲基金"的缘由吧.
简言之,传统的portfolios强调稳扎稳打,步步为营,以实现market return为己任;而hedge fund is more risk-taking,希望在大起大落之间获取beyond market return的超额回报. 至于whether hedge fund may nicely hedge itself, it all depends how it feel or judge the market risks.当然,尽管判断很重要, timing and luck may often play an important role as well.
由hedge fund或其他的portfolios, 不禁想到所谓投资(investment)和投机(speculation)的争论. Is there any difference between the two? 看起来似乎有差别,至少投资听起来更冠冕堂皇些,而投机似乎令人嗤之以鼻.真的这样吗? 在我看来,投资和投机both involve with betting on something uncertain. There is no difference in nature, however. 如果说有差别,只在risk tolerance level: investment is relatively risk-averse, but speculation is more risk-bearing. 这其实也就是一般的portfolios和hedge fund之间的本质区别.
我对于投资vs.投机的认识也是逐渐改变的. 记得在business school读书时,对投资之说是深信不疑,奉若金科玉律,而且颇以正统自居,自豪.一说到投机,便觉得是旁门左道,且隐约有不太正大光明之感: speculation is nothing different from gambling! 直到有一天,几位友人教我play casino, 玩一种很popular的叫作"Texas Hold'em"的game,我才发现,gambling(或speculation)也有很多学问!同样需要对risk的analyze, judge and adjust. 就拿"Texas Hold'em"来说,the risk of winning or loss changes whenever every new card is placed on the table. 所以,对风险的判断和应变要求很高,而且必须在瞬间作出决断. 所有这些,对于投资不是同样必不可少吗? So, finally I start to realize: investment is nothing different from gambling. 因此,投资vs.投机的界线模糊了,甚至不存在了, 'cuz all matters is how you look at risks and behave accordingly.
说来说去,对于投资vs.投机的认识似乎也关系到人生的态度. 人的一生到底应该怎样面对各种各样的risk呢? 是应该努力化解各种风险,稳健一生还是应该风雨无阻,跃上浪头干一场?相信每个人的选择都是不一样的.但不管作何选择,as long as you feel comfortable with your risk-taking and don't bother others, that's fine. 但窃以为,纵观人的一生,从表象上来说,更像hedge fund,很难没有大的起伏(不管是主动的还是被动的),因为很多risk是无法预期也非人力可以左右的. So, is or will your life be well hedged? 我觉得,说到hedge,关键是要hedge the bottom line, 也就是尽量避免孤注一掷,以免万劫不复,就像Amaranth的遭遇一样.如果能够记取前进道路上的并非致命的挫折和失败,"野火烧不尽,春风吹又生"还是有可能的.
当然人生和hedge fund还是有很多不一样,首先面对的risk很难量化,也更加错综复杂.其次,对return的理解也不一样. To hedge fund and other investment portfolios, return is a purely financial or monetary concept. But to life, what "return" means? 人生的目标或追求倒底是什么? 儒家说修身齐家治国平天下,道家说清静无为羽化升天,佛家说 明心见性 回头是岸,etc., 没有统一的标准.所以, 每个人的成功与失败都不具有可比性,更不应该等量观之.只要你在追求自己人生目标的过程中很好地manage all risks involved,并且认真的付出了, then it's proper to say: your life is well hedged...
