仓位交易法-打低持仓成本

仓位交易法-打低持仓成本

就我目前的交易探索,我发现不管是日冲还是短线,无论你的技巧如何精确,影响打低持仓成本效果的最主要因素还是: 仓位! 也就是你究竟用多大比例的仓位去进行高抛低吸和低吸高抛的活动!!!
这个很好理解,如果每次只用10%的仓位去倒腾,无论你怎么精确巧妙,比如抓了10%的日涨幅,对最后结果的影响只有1%.但是用50%的仓位,只要抓了5%,最后成本价就降了2.5%.更进一步,90%的仓位倒腾,抓日跌幅的4%,成本下降3.6%, 这个效果就很显著了.
这个不是什么吹牛或者空穴来风,我以前就这样干过,用50%仓位的时候,两三把倒腾就把成本降到比我第一次买还低的前所未有的低价.用95%仓位的时候,一日之间,就把该股的持仓成本下降了3%.这个3%的效果我以前按缠论10%或者5%仓位的时候,要用1个月才做得到!
为何以前没将这种方法扩展,主要还是心态问题,散户怕踏空,我也一样,对于一些看得见的跌势,缺乏足够的耐心,因为的确有些卖后就涨的例子,所以总是被一些莫名的愿望和梦想驱使,怕踏空,不敢用高仓位去做空.其实涨了就跌是自然规律,对规律仅仅停留在认识的水平只上,和胆大到用这个规律去一意孤行绝对是两个不同的概念和水平!

所以,炒股炒到后来,不只是技术,而是心态!
目前的策略:提高仓位交易比例至30-90%,现金比例20%.这里面,日冲还是显示出了它无与伦比的优越性.因为开盘价很容易受庄家和外界消息以及大势的影响.这对SWING TRADING 是非常不利的,也就是SWING TRADING 的不可控因素太多.但日冲就不同,几乎就是比较纯粹的技术,这个是个人水平比较容易能控制的部分.也就是赚确定无疑的钞票还得日冲好啊!

让我们看看这个经典的成功案例:
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今天买、明天卖；零买囤卖，整买零卖的手法逐个露面，游资导演了又一幕热炒“洗具”。  　　
三峡水利2011/1月26日股价第一次涨停，“今天买明天卖”主力首次出现，银河证券佛山南海桂平西路营业部买入1631万元，次日高开冲高回落，卖出1728万元，获利了结出局。  　　
东方证券苏州临顿路营业部是零卖囤卖的代表，1月26日至28日三天1981万元，等到2月9日，一天卖出2327万元。
国盛证券抚州赣东大道营业部则是整买零卖，2月9日买入2432万元，11日、14日分别卖出1543万元、1082万元。  　　
炒作晋亿实业营业部同样参与三峡水利，2月1日股价涨停，温岭东辉北路营业部开始露面，买入三峡水利2578万元，把对高铁龙头的持续买入手段再次应用，下一个交易日的2月9日再度买入2304万元，同时卖出2625万元，这两个交易日都是涨停，很可能是股价稍微低开时未来仍旧看涨，继续买入了2304万元，等到股价涨停，卖出了前一天所买股票，当天做了“T+0”交易，手中股票仓位没变，但已经降低了成本，当天买入的这些股票在2月11日卖掉绝大部分。

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这才上真正的"仓位交易",也就是Position trading. 至于网上说的,甚至一些交易公司里科普的Position trading概念,我认为都是瞎扯!
他们是这么说的:
Position Trading:

Position trading, also known as 'trend trading', can best be described as a 'buy and hold' method. Positions can be open for a few days, a few weeks, a few months or longer. They are also held during periods of minor retracement with the expectation that they will eventually continue trending in the desired direction.
Pros:
- The most forgiving type of trading - small mistakes are more easily absorbed in market movement and the size of your eventual profit.
- The easiest to learn. It is estimated that up to 25% of position traders learn to become profitable.
- Less stressful than intraday or swing trading.
- Easier to become successful with smaller startup capital.
- Much easier to predict the market as in general you will be following the overall trend.
- In general position trading is the most profitable.
- Less time consuming than day trading.

Cons:
- Compounding has a lot less effect on profit than both intraday and swing trading.
- Because positions can be highly leveraged and trades remain open for extended periods of time, unable to reap consistent benefits of interest.
- There is inherent risk in keeping positions open over night. It is quite possible for drastic changes to occur in the market while you sleep.
- Money can be tied up for an extended period of time. This can prevent entry into new positions as they arise.
- Because of the length of time involved in position trading, traders can experience significant drawdown with the expectation that it will turn around and start trending back in the desired direction. Psychologically this can have a very negative effect.