房价：英国房市发展失衡
蔡波/人人网译生译世ECO精选翻译
英国政府而不是银行业应该为房产市场发展失衡负责
去 年英国房价上涨8%，目前更是几乎恢复到经济危机以前的两位数水平。这一趋势令很多人感到不安。现任卡梅伦联合内阁商务、创新和技能大臣的温斯·凯博称房 价失控让人“堪忧不已”。英国央行负责金融市场稳定的一名副行长康里夫爵士则说目前房市“情况严峻不容忽视”。英国首相也表示房市过热是其经济回暖的最大 障碍。
由于不同地区房产市场特点不一，这使得调控难度更大。很多地方房价并未出现明显上涨，甚至还持续低迷。苏格兰 和北爱尔兰的房价在过去的一年增长不到1%，这意味着实际房价在下降。但是伦敦东南部地区的房产市场则显著回暖，伦敦的房价过去一年涨幅高达17%。这无 疑给决策者们出了个难题：如何在保证南部房市持续升温的同时也促进其他地区的房市回暖呢？
真正的问题不在于房价上涨 本身，而在于房价上涨背后的巨额贷款，毕竟房产只是一种资产形式。随着房价的快速上涨，民众们为了买房而不得不借下高额贷款。目前平均贷款收入比率已经打 破2007年的峰值。这将严重制约经济的发展。年利率也开始快速上升，因为随着更多的收入被用于支付按揭贷款，人们的消费能力必然要下降。这无疑会影响企 业发展，进而威胁到工人就业。房贷压力导致用于生产性投资的资金也更少，如今这不仅会减小GDP增长率，也影响着经济的发展。
房 价的过快增长会产生两个方面的影响。其一，现金的大量流入。目前抵押贷款利率较低，银行迫于将贷款放入房市。由于某些国家的政府对房产市场控制较严，因而 很多高级公寓遭到国外投资者的哄抢，这必然导致大量的热钱流入。很多法国人在骑士桥置下房产，而俄罗斯投资者们在贝尔塔莱维亚区联排别墅的投资也使其价格 一路飙升。
其二，房产市场供需的不平衡，这个问题也更加严峻。自2004年以来，英国的劳动力人口已增加近 400万，而新增家庭数量则仅为180万。尽管房价一路走高，但需求却滞后。房产开发商们（贷款和劳动力价格都偏低）幻想着房市需求的大幅增长，但是 2012至2013年间新建房屋仅有13.5万套，这是1969年以来的最低记录，过去十年中英国的房产市场缩水了12%。
如何防止房产泡沫
英 格兰银行需要发挥应有的作用。英国财政大臣乔治·奥斯本正设法将抵押贷款补贴“帮助购房”计划这一棘手问题转移给英格兰银行总裁马克·卡尼。马克先生应该 暂停该计划，并且还应该行使自己新的“宏观审慎监管”权力，即对所有银行进行“房价骤降35%”和失业率增加的“压力测试”，这个措施很可能奏效，因为这 迫使那些不能应对这种剧烈变化的银行筹集更多资金，这样一来它们再也不敢随便贷出抵押贷款。
只要政府政策一出，很多英国银行就会这样做。卡尼先生可以采取新的新的措施以抑制国民过量贷款的问题，例如通过规定贷款价值比率或按揭贷款价值比率等贷款条件来限制家庭负债，这对贷款超额的伦敦的影响将最大。将个人所个税转移到房产税上来讲有利于减少外来现金的流入。
最 令人失望的莫过于政府了。政府之前曾口口声声表示会大力支持东南部地区的房产开发计划，可是新建房屋数量仍然为数不多，这表明政府的成效甚微。卡梅隆首相 应该下令加快实施该计划。卖掉未使用的政府土地将有利于房产开发商，他们可从中大大获利。征收土地税而不是房产税会刺激投机性房产开发，以及促使市值较高 土地的所有者将其转手或用来建房。那些喜欢优雅居住环境的保守党们肯定不会赞成在伦敦周围大量建房，但这显然是防止房产市场持续过热的最佳途径。
House prices
A very British binge
The housing market is a huge problem in Britain. Blame the government, not the banks
May 24th 2014 | From the print edition
HAVING risen by 8% in the past year, British house prices are almost back to the double-digit pace that preceded the financial crisis. That parallel makes many anxious. Vince Cable, the business secretary, calls runaway house prices a “real, real, real worry”. Sir Jon Cunliffe, the central banker responsible for Britain’s financial stability, says housing is “too dangerous to ignore”. David Cameron, the prime minister, describes the rampant market as the biggest risk to Britain’s recovery.
The housing headache is made worse because different parts of the country are on completely different tracks. Much of Britain is calm, even tepid. In Scotland and Northern Ireland, house prices are up by less than 1% in a year, meaning real prices are going backwards. But the south-east is red hot: London is the core, with prices up 17% in a year. It gives policymakers a conundrum: can they tamp down the south without snuffing out the recovery elsewhere?
The big worry is not the house prices themselves: a house is an asset, after all. The problem is the debt that sits behind it. Britons are stretching to meet ever-rising prices by borrowing more. Average loan-to-income ratios have passed their 2007 peak. This threatens to throttle the economy. Interest-rate rises within a year are starting to look likely: with more pay devoted to mortgage repayments, consumption is bound to fall. That is bad news for firms, and, in turn, workers. A household-debt hangover also reduces the funds that could be channelled towards productive investment. This slows GDP now, and lowers potential too.
The boom runs on two types of fuel. The first is a rush of cash. Mortgage rates are low, and banks are keen to make loans on property. Money has also flooded in from abroad, as fancy flats are snapped up by foreigners whose governments are less friendly than Britain’s. French money underpins Knightsbridge; Belgravia-fancying Russians keep prices rising there.
The second problem is bigger: a long-standing mismatch between supply and demand. Since 2004 Britain’s working-age population has risen by nearly 4m, the number of homes by just 1.8m. New supply is stagnant despite high prices. Dream conditions for house-builders (debt is cheap, as are labourers) should be creating a building boom. Yet the puny 135,000 houses completed in 2012-13 was the lowest number since records began in 1969. In ten years the construction industry has shrunk by more than 12%.
Pre-emptive hangover cures
The Bank of England needs to toughen up. George Osborne, the chancellor of the exchequer, has cannily lobbed the hot potato that is Help to Buy, a mortgage-subsidy scheme, to Mark Carney, the bank’s governor. Mr Carney should call time on it. And he should deploy his new “macroprudential” powers: the plan to “stress test” banks against a 35% house-price crash and a jump in unemployment is a good one. Lenders that cannot withstand this hypothetical shock will need to raise more capital, making them less eager to extend riskier housing loans.
Many British borrowers could do with a hard word from the governor, too. Mr Carney has new powers to stop Britons gorging on loans: debt blockers, such as loan-to-value or loan-to-income caps, would limit household leverage, and thus have most impact on over-borrowed London. Shifting the burden of tax from income to property would reduce the flood of foreign cash.
The biggest let-down has been the government. It has talked a good game about freeing up land for building in the south-east: weak construction figures show how little it has achieved. Mr Cameron should demand a faster planning process. Selling off unused government land would help builders and bring in revenue. Taxing land rather than buildings would encourage speculative construction and would push those sitting on large stocks to build or sell up. Building more around London will not be popular with shrub-loving Conservative voters, but it is the best way to stop another mortgage binge.
From the print edition: Leaders
今日第359-375个单词
★rampant
adj. 猖獗的；蔓延的；狂暴的；奔放的
★tepid
adj. 微温的，温热的；不太热烈的；不热情的
★red hot
赤热的，猛烈的
★conundrum
n. 难题；谜语
★throttle
vt. 压制，扼杀；使……窒息；使……节流
★snap up
抢购
★puny
adj. 弱小的；微不足道的；微小的
★exchequer
n. 财源；国库；财政部
★canny
adj. 精明的，谨慎的；节约的
★lob
n. 高球；笨重的人
vt. 把球挑高；打缓慢的球
vi. 蹒跚地走
★macroprudential
宏观审慎
★gorge on
贪婪地吃，饱吃
★loan-to-value 贷款价值比率
★loan-to-income 贷款收入比率
★let-down 让人失望的人或事
★shrub 灌木丛
★binge
n. 狂欢，狂闹；放纵
