石油输出国组织会减产吗？

刚刚说过“沙特石油战？”，讲的是沙特要降价扼杀美国页岩油。

石油输出国组织本周（27日，维也纳）马上就要决定是否减产，扭转油价失控的状况。这是高盛给前几天报道的小结



高盛的预测是微减。

塔斯社报道说科威特的油委（Kuwait's Supreme Petroleum Council）成员Abdul Majid Al-Shatti今天又暗示应当减产，他希望油价会到$80。原来印象是俄国无意减产，不过德国之声报道说委内瑞拉外长上周访问俄国，俄国能源部长当时表示俄国会考虑。俄委两国对原油收入的依赖都极大，委内瑞拉是叫减产叫的最响的。俄国能源部长前天又说【路透社】俄国正在考虑，很为难，还没有定。美沙两手压价打击俄国这一说法不但在美流行，在俄国更是普遍。这是德国之声引用的：

Leonid Fedun, co-owner of private Russia-based oil firm Lukoil, cited US President Barack Obama's visit to Riyadh in March.
"Obama travelled to meet the king of Saudi Arabia just after the Crimea events to push him to these actions [to lower the price]," Fedun said last month.
Perhaps the strongest evidence in this direction comes from US foreign minister John Kerry. After a trip to Saudi Arabia in September, Kerry was asked if past discussions with Riyadh had touched on Russia's need for a global oil price above $100 per barrel to balance its budget.
"They (the Saudis) are very, very well aware of their ability to have an impact on global oil prices," Kerry replied.
Saudi Arabia is in the midst of a proxy war against Iran in Syria and Iraq, with each supporting rival militias, divided roughly along the lines of sectarian affiliation - the Saudis in support of Sunni militias, and the Iranians in support of Shiite militias.
But Saudi Oil minister Ali al Naimi denies a geopolitical drive to get oil prices down is what is going on. After many weeks of silence in the face of spreading conspiracy theories, Naimi finally spoke to the issue on November 12.
"Saudi oil policy... has been subject to a great deal of wild and inaccurate conjecture in recent weeks. We do not seek to politicize oil... for us it's a question of supply and demand, it's purely business," he said.

问题是大家一群散沙，利益复杂，很难达成协议。彭博列举了一些情况，俄国、挪威、墨西哥都不在石油输出国组织内，要减，得大家一块儿减，否则无意义。

我觉得大家要么发表空头宣言，啥也不做，要么象征性的表表态，不论怎样，结果油价还是只降不升。当然了，俄国就惨了。

市场是怎么看的呢？

这是西德州中级原油（WTI）期货价格图：

今天开始，一开始有一点小冲，但至此时力度不大，几乎没长：

15分钟图


日图

似乎$74到底了。

高盛还有些内幕。



一大群人用短期布伦特原油认购期权赌油价反弹。

拭目以待。

【后记】
上面引的路透社的报道有个更新：
UPDATE 2-Russia sends mixed signals on oil output ahead of OPEC meeting

俄国不是石油输出国组织成员，不能公开表态，但是放的风声较含糊：

"We think that our contribution, in principle, is that we are keeping our oil production (flat). We are not increasing."

"Kommersant newspaper said on Monday Russia might suggest cutting its oil production by around 15 million tonnes a year (300,000 barrels per day) from next year and that Moscow expected the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to limit its output by another 70 million tonnes. OPEC meets in Vienna on Nov.27."

"Industry players are sceptical that Russia may do anything significant to shore up prices as it did not contribute even when it promised to cut exports to help OPEC curb an oil price fall in the early 2000s."

2014年11月25日（美国东部时间）11：00
一小时前传出消息说石油输出国组织没达成协议，油价即刻大跌：

5分钟图：


日图：


还没跌破前几天的底线，不过危险了。

路透社报道：
Pre-OPEC Saudi, Russia oil meet fails to agree output cut

还在谈。